Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Russia vs Lithuania
Projected line: Russia by 4 points
Russia won Group B with four wins in their first four games and then a loss in a meaningless game against Australia. They looked impressive with a very solid defense and with a good enough offense to make them highly competitive. They are favorites to win this game, but Lithuania offers them a tough matchup. This version of Russia plays quicker and has a better offense than the Russian versions from the previous years, but the fact that play more open than usual will give chances to Lithuania, who definitely possesses enough offensive power to go head to head against the Russian offense.
This is especially truth as the Russian offense has shown some weakness in the group stage that might hurt them sooner or later. They have problems at the FT (just 68% FT) and their outside shooting is very inconsistent. On the other hand, Lithuania is one of the best FT shooting teams in the competition (81% FT so far) and they are surely more consistent from the outside. Barring a blowout loss against Argentina in the first game, Lithuania has always been very competitive in all their games, including against the United States, winning them or losing by single digits. These two teams know each other very well and therefore, I expect a hard fought game with the winner being only decided down the stretch. Looking at the current lines, we have value on Lithuania at this spread and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Lithuania (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Nice write up Andre
ReplyDelete