Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Brazil vs Argentina
Projected line: 155 points | Argentina by 1 point
This is a very interesting game because not only it puts head to head two teams with a similar level, as there is a big rivalry between these two countries. These two teams know each other very well and Brazil's coach is actually the coach that led Argentina to their Olympic title back in 2004. These two teams have also faced each other in last year's final of FIBA Americas, where Argentina won by 5 points, in a tournament played in Argentina and where Brazil didn't have Nene, Varejao and Barbosa on their roster at the time.
Matchup wise, I believe Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of big men, which should translate into a rebounding edge for the Brazilian team. Brazil is also defending quite well, especially on the perimeter (allowing just 28% 3pts!), something that can make Argentina struggle big time, as most the Argentinian offense usually comes from the perimeter. Argentina's starting PG Prigioni is struggling badly with kidney stones and he might not even play today, but even if he does, he won't surely be at 100%, something that will make Argentina struggle even more on offense, as Argentina lacks depth to stay competitive without one of their stars on the court at 100%.
On the other hand, Brazil should use their frontcourt edge to pound Argentina down low on offense, even though Nene hasn't been aggressive at all on this competition. Still, Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of athleticism and they will make the veteran Argentinian team throughout the whole game. Argentina's only clear edge for this contest will exactly come from their experience that will make them a very tough team down the stretch. However, Brazil with edges in terms of depth, frontcourt and with a very improved defense, I believe they will this game at least highly competitive. With them getting 4,5 points on the current line, I'll be taking Brazil today. As I believe Argentina will heavily struggle on offense, I expect the Argentinian team to make a big effort on defense to try to stop the Brazilian offense, something that will make this contest a very physical one, without a lot of offensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll also take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 159,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (+4,5) @ -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle
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