MLB - 917 Detroit Tigers @ 918 Minnesota Twins
(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs C. De Vries)
This is the final game of a 3-games series, with the two teams having split the wins in the first two games. Detroit will start Scherzer today and he has been massively inconsistent lately an ERA of 3.00, 7.20, 7.11, 2.57, 1.29, 7.20 and 1.29 on his last seven starts. He is currently allowing a very high BA to his opponents (especialy vs LH batters, as he has a.302 BA and .502 SLG against them on day games) and that makes his BABIP define his work and Detroit isn't exactly known for their good defense, so Scherzer is in danger today against a team that not only is hitting well right now, as they have also made Scherzer struggle in the paint, as he has a 5.26 ERA against them over his last four starts against the Twins.
Minnesota will start De Vries and he was completely pounded on his last start against Tampa Bay, where he allowed eight runs (seven earned) and seven hits over just 1.1 innings. Considering the fact that De Vries has been posting an higher FIP than his ERA on his last outings (4.38, 5.70, 4.43, 4.10, 10.30 FIP on his last five starts prior to his outing versus the Rays), I believe De Vries will continue regressing on this contest and against a very good hitting like the Tigers, he is surely into another very tough outing today.
Looking at how both pitchers are likely to struggle today, while both teams have been hitting quite well lately, I believe we are into a slugfest on this contest and therefore I see value on the Over, even though the line is currently set at 9,5 runs. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Over 9,5 (w/ M. Scherzer & C. De Vries) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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