MLB Free Premium Play 10/02

MLB Pick #1: 901 Detroit Tigers @ 902 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs. C. Tillman)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 901 Detroit Tigers ML @ -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

For this first game of the series, I feel that the Tigers have a better “spot” than BAL and more importantly, they have a considerable edge on the mound working for them today.

I expect DET to be “sharper” in handling this contest… they had a tight battle against KC for the division title in which every game mattered, while BAL even though they could have grabbed home court edge through the playoffs, they didn’t put much focus on it as they finished the regular season 3-5 L8 games and failed to hit .200 or more in the L4 games!

Regarding the matchups, I expect BAL’s SP Chris Tillman to have some problems facing DET’s lineup.

Tillman enjoyed a nice 2nd half season w/ 2.33 ERA but as usual w/ him, his advanced stats were a bit worse: 3.38 ERA & 3.48 xFIP! His month of September wasn’t that good and this a bad sign b/c of his L6 opponents TOR, BOS, NYY, BOS, CIN & MIN, only the Twins were a good offense in this second half of season! After some slumps and w/ a healthier Miguel Cabrera, DET’s offense was back in track and finished the month of September being #2 top ranked offense in the league!

On the other end, DET’s SP Max Scherzer also enjoyed a fine 2nd half of season w/ 2.87 ERA! However, unlike Tillman, his advanced numbers are supporting such stellar ERA number: 2.70 FIP & 3.12 xFIP! Note also that unlike Tillman, Scherzer faced some tough matchups lately by facing twice MIN, twice KC, CLE & CWS.  All these teams were in the top15 offense in the 2nd half! Finally, unlike Tillman, Scherzer didn’t face the Orioles this season (Tillman had one start vs. DET early in the season) and so, I expect Scherzer to be better than Tillman today. Obviously, the bullpen could be a problem for the Tigers, but we are getting Scherzer w/ nice rest so this potential problem might appear in the series for DET but not now!

MLB Premium Card 09/23

MLB Pick #1: 925 Houston Astros @ 926 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: B. Oberholtzer vs. N. Martinez )

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick:  925 Houston Astros ML @ -104 / 1.96 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 09/22

MLB Pick #1: 957 Colorado Rockies @ 958 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: T. Matzek vs. E. Stults)

Rating: 4 units - Double Dime Play

Pick: 957 Colorado Rockies ML @ +104 / 2.04 on 5 Dimes

NOTE: This is a DOUBLE DIME PLAY!

MLB Premium Card 09/21

MLB Pick #1: 903 New York Mets @ 904 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. E. Santana)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 903 New York Mets ML @ +100 / 2.00 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 921 Cleveland Indians @ 922 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: C. Kluber vs. A. Swarzak)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 921 Cleveland Indians RL-1@ -135 / 1.74 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/20

MLB Pick #1: 979 Philadelphia Phillies @ 980 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: J. Williams vs. D. Pomeranz)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 980 Oakland Athletics RL-1.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: M. Garza vs. E. Volquez)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7.5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #3: 963 San Francisco Giants @ 964 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Petit vs. A. Cashner)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 963 San Francisco Giants ML @ -113 / 1.88 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 09/18

MLB Pick #1: 951 Washington Nationals @ 952 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: G. Gonzalez vs. B. Hand)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Washington Nationals RL-1 @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 953 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 954 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Greinke vs. T. Wada)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 953 Los Angeles Dodgers RL-1 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #3: 967 Seattle Mariners @ 968 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs. W. Leblanc)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 967 Seattle Mariners RL-1.5 @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/17

MLB Pick #1: 907 Miami Marlins @ 908 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs. D. Gee)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 907 Miami Marlins ML @ +111 / 2.11 on Betonline

MLB Pick #2: 921 Cleveland Indians @ 922 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: C. Carrasco vs. B. Oberholtzer)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 921 Cleveland Indians ML @ -122 / 1.82 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/16

MLB Pick #1: 951 Washington Nationals @ 952 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. A. Harang)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Atlanta Braves ML @ +114 / 2.14 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 09/16

MLB Pick #1: 909 San Francisco Giants @ 910 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: R. Vogelsong vs. W. Miley)

Rating: 5 units - Triple Dime Play

Pick: Over 8 @ -105 / 1.95 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 901 Washington Nationals @ 902 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg vs. E. Santana)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 901 Washington Nationals ML @ -129 / 1.77 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/14

MLB Pick #1: 951 Washington Nationals @ 952 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmermann vs. J. Niese)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Washington Nationals RL-1 @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 955 Miami Marlins @ 956 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs. D. Buchanan)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 955 Miami Marlins ML @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 09/13

MLB Pick #1: 903 Chicago Cubs @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: F. Doubront vs. J. Locke)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 904 Pittsburgh Pirates RL-1.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 09/12

MLB Pick #1: 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: G. Gonzalez vs. D. Gee)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 955 Washington Nationals RL-1 @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/11

MLB Pick #1: 903 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 904 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: R. Delgado vs. J. Peavy)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 904 San Francisco Giants RL-1.5 @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 905 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 906 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: F. Liriano vs. A. Burnett)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7.5 @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

For tonight I have 3 strong leans w/ Under and I’m playing all of them as I feel that we are going to see some “Pitchers’ duels” on the mound…

Both Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett have been pitching pretty well lately… Liriano is having some bad luck as his team hasn’t provided him the proper run support but after struggling in one start vs. ATL, Liriano is bounced back and made 3 straight quality starts on his L3 starts. The last one was impressive if we take in account that the Cubs’ lineup is a solid lineup vs. LHP’s this season and still, Liriano held them to 6 scoreless innings.

On the other end, we have a red hot Burnett on the mound. I have played him in each of his L3 starts w/ good success as we’ve won 2 plays (both as big underdogs!) He dominated the solid lineup of the Nationals twice in those 2 starts, and I expect him to be decent tonight as well.

MLB Premium Card 09/10

MLB Pick #1: 953 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: V. Worley vs. J. Williams)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 953 Pittsburgh Pirates RL-1 @ -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/09

MLB Pick #1: 953 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: V. Worley vs. J. Williams)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 953 Pittsburgh Pirates RL-1 @ -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/08

MLB Pick #2: 951 Atlanta Braves @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Minor vs. D. Fister)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Washington Nationals RL-1 @ +106 / 2.06 n 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #3: 953 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Locke vs. K. Kendrick)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 8.5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 09/08

MLB Free Pick: 965 Kansas City Royals @ 966 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Guthrie vs. J. Verlander)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 966 Detroit Tigers ML @ -130 / 1.77 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

It’s a good thing that the Tigers are facing division leaders Royals today in this early contest, because they will take the game “seriously” and therefore, the potential letdown spot of playing @SNB yesterday and then early today will be dissipated in my opinion.

I’m fading once again KC’s SP Jeremy Guthrie after losing an “OVER” play on his last start vs. TEX. In that game, Guthrie managed to allow just 1 ER in 7 IP’s despite allowing 9 hits and striking out just one batter. He has been ultra inconsistent lately alternating good starts with some truly awful ones. In the L6 games he was solid against TEX twice and ARI… well, these two offenses are ranked #28 & #29 in the league in this second half season, so he took advantage of the fact that he enjoyed favorable matchups. Certainly, this won’t be the case today with the Tigers.

On the other end, we have DET’s SP Verlander on the mound… we can’t expect anything “special” from him as he is far from the pitcher he used to be. He is coming from a tough start vs. #2 offense in the league in CLE in which he allowed 6 ER’s in 6.2 IP’s. However note that he had a nice 7/1 K/BB ratio and actually, he had 21 K’s on his L3 starts - a good sign for him! He had some “personal stuff” going on in the internet in the last week… I expect him to be more focused today and therefore, I see some value w/ DET today.

MLB Premium Card 09/08

MLB Pick #1: 901 Atlanta Braves @ 902 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Teheran vs. B. Hand)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7 @ -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 909 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 910 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: G. Cole vs. T. Wood)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 909 Pittsburgh Pirates RL-1.5 @ +105 / 2.05 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #3: 915 Chicago White Sox @ 916 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: S. Carroll vs. C. Carrasco)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 916 Cleveland Indians RL-1.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 09/06

MLB Pick #1: 965 Baltimore Orioles @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs. D. Smyly)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 965 Baltimore Orioles ML @ +130 / 2.30 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #2: 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. T. Roark)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Philadelphia Phillies ML @ +159 / 2.59 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 09/05

MLB Pick #1: 905 Atlanta Braves @ 906 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. J. Cosart)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 906 Miami Marlins ML @ -118 / 1.85 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #2: 907 New York Mets @ 908 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs. A. Simon)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 907 New York Mets ML @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline