NBA Premium Play 01/02: Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks

NBA - 703 Toronto Raptors @ 704 New York Knicks

Projected line: 193 points | NY Knicks by 5 points

We have on this game two teams who don't have particularly good spots for tonight. This is a back to back game for Toronto, after playing at Orlando last night, while the Knicks are coming home after a road trip in the West. Yesterday, Toronto's starters had heavy minutes: Bargnani played 41 minutes, Calderon 36 minutes and DeRozan 36 minutes as well! On the other side, the Knicks offense has been quite off sync. Take a look at their volume on offense:

%Rim    %Short    %Mid    %Long    %3P       
27.2%    11.2%    6.5%    24.7%    30.3%     

As we can see, the Knicks basically shoot the most from the rim and from the perimeter and curiously, Toronto has a good help defense now with Dwane Casey coaching the team very well in these areas, allowing just 54% FG on the rim (high volume of 32%), 44% FG from 16-23 feet (average numbers) and 36% on 3pts allowed (very good!). Take also a look at the Knicks most used offensive plays so far on this season:
 
PLAYS                   %Time    PPP
Isolation                 16.20%    0.75
P&R Ball Handler    13.50%    0.91
Spot-Up                  24.40%    0.82
Cut                          8.90%     1.29
Transition                14.20%    0.96

And now look at Toronto's defense on the same plays:

PLAYS                   %Time    PPP
Isolation                  6.20%     0.88
P&R Ball Handler    13.10%    0.91
Spot-Up                  22.70%   0.89
Cut                           5.30%   0.86
Transition                11.00%   1.37

Toronto has only been a subpar defensive team on transition plays and so, it won't be that easy to score against them as it was last season! Besides that, Toronto has also been a good rebounding team. On their offense, the Raptors may have some edge, especially where they have been struggling badly: the backcourt with DeRozan! With his speed, I expect DeRozan to tore apart the bad perimeter defense of the Knicks, as he did last season when he averaged 19.0 ppg and 47.2% FG against them! The rebounding of the Knicks has been terrible and therefore, Toronto may have some edge on this department. Toronto's Small Forwards are defensive minded with little impact on the offense and so, they will be ready to guard Carmelo.

I believe Toronto has been undervalued in this start of the season, as they have been fighting for the win literally in every game they've played so far! Therefore, I expect Toronto to make this match close and so my projections point to 5-point line, which gives me enough edge to take the Raptors on this contest. I'll also be taking the under as well, considering how the Knicks should struggle on the offense against the improved defense of Toronto.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Toronto Raptors (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes