NBA - 705 Atlanta Hawks @ 706 Miami Heat
Projected line: Miami by 6 points
Will Atlanta be capable to stop the transition offense of Miami (1.25 PPP with 20.7% volume!)? In fact, Atlanta's defense on transition has been reasonable by allowing 1.02 PPP on 13% of volume. Miami is also attacking the rim quite often with 38% of volume and 65% FG, however Atlanta is only allowing 54% FG at this area of the court. Curiously, both teams are very good in defensive rebounding. In theory, Atlanta has the tools to be a tough matchup for Miami, as they play on a super slow pace, they commit few turnovers (4th in the league with 12.43% TO/rate) and they have defensive players who can rotate well in the team's defensive rotations: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford!
On the other side, Atlanta has a solid bench, without committing a lot of turnovers and being able to grab offensive rebounds and on this game, Jeff Teague has a good matchup and he has been asked to be more aggressive by his head coach after their last game at Houston. I believe this is the toughest match of the season so far for Miami and therefore, I believe we have enough edge to take Atlanta on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Atlanta Hawks (+9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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