Projected Line: 183 points
Indiana will have a clear rebounding edge for tonight, as they have a great 31.53% offensive rebounding rate over their last 10 games, while Miami has been terrible on defensive rebounding by allowing an offensive rebounding rate to their opponents of 27.56% over their last 10 games! The key in here will be to know if the Pacers can take advantage or not from their edge down low. They will grab the rebounds, but it's important to score the second chance shots as well. Roy Hibbert struggles in putting himself on the right spots to score, while Indiana is very inconsistent on their perimeter shooting.
Indiana's defense is excellent in avoiding sending their opponents to the FT line and that's important for this contest. The Pacers defense is also #1 on transitions, #1 on spot ups and #6 on isolation plays and with them being such a great perimeter defense, it will be hard for the Heat to have a big offensive game tonight.
After some fast paced games, Miami has been playing at a slower pace lately, with four of their last six games having a pace factor below 85! They are letting their opponents to set the pace and Indiana will surely want to turn this game into a halfcourt battle, in order to take advantage of their great rebounding and defense. I expect a slow paced game in here, with both teams making a decent defensive job, therefore I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 188 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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