NBA - 721 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 722 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 200 points
Both teams are rested for today, on the first match between these two teams this season. Utah's defense is terrible against pick and rolls and spot ups, with terrible close outs on the perimeter. This is why they are allowing 43.3% 3pts over their last 10 games! The good news is that Minnesota's offense isn't good from the perimeter and their pick and rolls aren't great neither, especially without Ricky Rubio. The problem for the Jazz's defense is that they aren't good on rim defense neither by allowing 67% FG over their last 10 games! At the same time, Minnesota's rim defense isn't any better by allowing 68% FG at the rim over their last 10 games, including allowing Luis Scola to shoot 16-26 FG against them on their last game. Minnesota is #25 on post up defense and their transition defense has also been poor by allowing 1.20 PPP over their last 10 games! This combination of poor defense from Minnesota will allow Utah to use their transitions and post ups today with a lot of effectiveness!
On the other hand, Kevin Love has been shooting really well lately and his coach Rick Adelman has noticed the improvement: "He's shot the ball very well the last two days of practice," Adelman said of Love after practice Tuesday, Jan. 1. "He's taking his shots and not hesitating."
This free time for the Wolves between games surely helped Love as well. Minnesota's offense with Love should also have a decent edge down low. Utah has been a poor defensive rebounding team by being just ranked #24 in the league, so Minnesota has another interesting edge on offense tonight. I see both teams having good offensive games tonight and on a relatively fast paced game, this should quickly become a high scoring affair. I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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