NBA - 701 Atlanta Hawks @ 702 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Line: Atlanta by 8 points
Projected Line: Atlanta by 8 points
The Cavaliers are shorthanded on the frontcourt with Varejao and even Luke Walton out, the Bulls took advantage of it and the Hawks are getting ready to do the same by starting Zaza Pachulia at center for a big lineup. Last night the Hawks didn't show the proper effort in the second half just to bounce back and almost won the game down the stretch. I expect more effort from them because they have lost 3 games in a row for the first time this season.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Atlanta Hawks (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 703 Philadelphia 76ers @ 704 Toronto Raptors
Projected Line: 184 points
Last night the 76ers were pounded by the Nets on the second half and lost the game even though they shot a respectable 48% FG. The problem was that they didn’t go to the free throw line and Reggie Evans alone abused the 76ers undersized frontcourt. According to my numbers, the 76ers had just 39.5% of the boards!
For tonight, the 76ers will have to play in b2b spot but at least the Raptors don’t have the “muscle” to pound the 76ers the way the Nets did last night. Toronto is a poor offensive rebounding team this season by being #24 w/ just 23.9% off. Reb/rate%.
Toronto has been shorthanded on the frontcourt with only 3 guys: Gray, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis. Johnson and Davis have a nice connection with Calderon on the P&R but they won’t create shots by themselves or pound the 76ers down low like the Nets did. This is going to be a perimeter shooting contest and in this scenario the 76ers have more chances to perform better on the defensive end.
Holiday will matchup with Calderon/Lowry and this will be the X factor of the game. The Raptors are a top team defending P&R ball handler especially with Lowry on the floor while I expect the 76ers to have a decent defensive game tonight. In the last 3 games they have allowed 109 points in all 3 games with putrid defensive rates of 119.7, 111.2 and 121.2.
However I can’t ignore the fact that they faced San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road on bad physical spots and this Brooklyn team is playing much better offensively since Avery Johnson was fired. The Raptors offense has improved lately but they are far from those 3 teams.
I expect this contest to be a slow paced game with a low number of FT’s. My handicapped line is 184/185 points so we have some edge on the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 189.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 DimesPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Philadelphia 76ers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Projected Line: 184 points
Last night the 76ers were pounded by the Nets on the second half and lost the game even though they shot a respectable 48% FG. The problem was that they didn’t go to the free throw line and Reggie Evans alone abused the 76ers undersized frontcourt. According to my numbers, the 76ers had just 39.5% of the boards!
For tonight, the 76ers will have to play in b2b spot but at least the Raptors don’t have the “muscle” to pound the 76ers the way the Nets did last night. Toronto is a poor offensive rebounding team this season by being #24 w/ just 23.9% off. Reb/rate%.
Toronto has been shorthanded on the frontcourt with only 3 guys: Gray, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis. Johnson and Davis have a nice connection with Calderon on the P&R but they won’t create shots by themselves or pound the 76ers down low like the Nets did. This is going to be a perimeter shooting contest and in this scenario the 76ers have more chances to perform better on the defensive end.
Holiday will matchup with Calderon/Lowry and this will be the X factor of the game. The Raptors are a top team defending P&R ball handler especially with Lowry on the floor while I expect the 76ers to have a decent defensive game tonight. In the last 3 games they have allowed 109 points in all 3 games with putrid defensive rates of 119.7, 111.2 and 121.2.
However I can’t ignore the fact that they faced San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road on bad physical spots and this Brooklyn team is playing much better offensively since Avery Johnson was fired. The Raptors offense has improved lately but they are far from those 3 teams.
I expect this contest to be a slow paced game with a low number of FT’s. My handicapped line is 184/185 points so we have some edge on the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 189.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 DimesPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Philadelphia 76ers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 705 Utah Jazz @ 706 Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Line: Utah by 2 points | 202 Points
Charlotte offense has improved dramatically lately. They continue to push the ball and score in transition but lately they have been more efficient, just look for their fast break points scored in the last 4 games: 27, 20, 20 and 25 pts, pretty amazing! Also their spot up shooting is better now that Gerald Henderson and Ben Gordon are healthy.
The Jazz starting backcourt Tinsley + Foye simply don’t have the foot speed to stop their opposing guards to penetrate and this might end in a nice game from Kemba Walker. The Jazz are ranked just #27 in defending the P&R BH and the Bobcats offense will have a substantial edge in here (yes, they are ranked #2 in this kind of play!). Also the Bobcats are a relentless team attacking the rim, L4 games almost 40% of their shots were at the rim and luckily for them, the Jazz aren’t a good team protecting the rim – L10 games they are allowing 70% FG at the rim! Kanter and Favors are good defensive players but they play “marginal” minutes as Big Al and Millsap will play the major minutes.
On the other side, the Jazz will have a tremendous edge on the offensive glass. After all, we are talking about the second worst defensive rebounding team in the league (CHA #29 w/ 70.3%) against the #6 best offensive rebounding team in the league (UTA #6 w/ 30.0%). Big Al and Millsap will have a considerable edge down low against Biyombo and Warrick.
The Jazz have been struggle for ever on the road and this Bobcats current team is vastly underrated with all players healthy. I expect a tight game with some pretty good offensive numbers
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Charlotte Bobcats (+5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 707 Phoenix Suns @ 708 Boston Celtics
Projected Line: Boston by 13 points
Phoenix offense is a great matchup for the Celtics defense: Goran Dragic is their primary ball handler and the Celtics will throw a fresh Rajon Rondo on him or even Bradley if needed. The Suns are a poor offensive rebounding team – just #19 in the league w/ 26.0% off.reb/rate% so the Celtics will be able to avoid being pounded on the glass like they usual are against good rebounding teams. Gortat and Scola have nice offensive skills but they won’t overpower anyone so the Suns won't be able to take advantage of the biggest weakness of this Celtics team.
The Suns lost (again) last night in Milwaukee in game in which I played the Bucks -6. After a nice 33-point first quarter outburst, the Suns went 28-of-72 from the field the rest of the way, including a putrid 4-of-20 from three-point range. When the Bucks defense pressured more in the second half, the Suns didn't fight. They just laid back and shot jumpers: 19 FGA’s from 16-23 feet + 20 3pts! On the other end, the lack of effort of the Suns in the defensive end was pretty evident, no wonder they have lost now ten games in a row.
For tonight they have a tough spot playing their third game in 4 nights. Right now they don’t have the right mindset to be competitive on the road.
The Celtics won a huge game in New York against the Knicks. I like the fact that Rondo didn't play in that game because we can expect him to be fired up and carry on his team. This “new look” Celtics team is starting to impress me so I’m taking Boston tonight for a easy blowout win.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Boston Celtics (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 711 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 712 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 199 points
Projected Line: 199 points
The Thunder didn’t play hard and their “reward” was losing against the worst team in the NBA, congratulations!
Oklahoma City prides itself on being a defensive-minded team yet yielded 30 points in the opening period at Washington, the league's lowest scoring team. Breakdowns, lapses and all-around bad energy filled the quarter, and that level of play carried on throughout the final three periods.
“Defensively, we talked about it a few games back, giving up a large number in the first quarter. And we gave up 30. … That put us in the wrong mindset,” said Thunder coach Scott Brooks. “We win by defense. We score by our defense. We do everything by our defense.”
I expect a defensive bounce back from OKC tonight, also we must not forget that OKC lost @MIN in December (TNT game) so we can count them to perform at their best.
OKC is one of the best teams protecting the rim by allowing just 61% FG and they are also a decent defensive rebounding team - #10 w/ 73.7%. This will help them against a Timberwolves team that is built to attack down low with Pekovic. Perkins finally might be useful for tonight in his matchup against Pekovic. If Pekovic don’t dominate the Wolves will be in trouble because they are a terrible jump shooting team.
OKC wins tonight via defense and I’m taking the Under in here.
Oklahoma City prides itself on being a defensive-minded team yet yielded 30 points in the opening period at Washington, the league's lowest scoring team. Breakdowns, lapses and all-around bad energy filled the quarter, and that level of play carried on throughout the final three periods.
“Defensively, we talked about it a few games back, giving up a large number in the first quarter. And we gave up 30. … That put us in the wrong mindset,” said Thunder coach Scott Brooks. “We win by defense. We score by our defense. We do everything by our defense.”
I expect a defensive bounce back from OKC tonight, also we must not forget that OKC lost @MIN in December (TNT game) so we can count them to perform at their best.
OKC is one of the best teams protecting the rim by allowing just 61% FG and they are also a decent defensive rebounding team - #10 w/ 73.7%. This will help them against a Timberwolves team that is built to attack down low with Pekovic. Perkins finally might be useful for tonight in his matchup against Pekovic. If Pekovic don’t dominate the Wolves will be in trouble because they are a terrible jump shooting team.
OKC wins tonight via defense and I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 715 Milwaukee Bucks @ 716 Chicago Bulls
Projected Line: 193 points
Last Monday’s game vs. Cleveland was the second best offensive game of the season for the Bulls.
Chicago shot 44-for-82 from the field (53.7 percent), 10-for-14 from three-point range and 20-for-24 from the foul line!
It was the third consecutive game that the Bulls are playing more an inside-out game than usual and the result was 34 assists on 44 made baskets! The Bulls assisted on nine of their 10 made threes and they are averaging 26.2 assists per game in the last 5 games.
Said Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau: ”We’re taking the right (3s). They’re in rhythm now, that’s the big thing. It’s off ball movement, hitting the paint, coming out, the extra pass, they’re rhythm 3s.”
The Bucks obviously have a better interior defense than the Cavaliers, but still the Bulls are playing their best offensive basketball of the season.
On the other side, the Bucks won last night against the Suns in the first game after the Skiles-era. Ilyasova returned to the starting lineup (a good move in my opinion) as the Bucks have in Ilyasova a “stretch-four” that can knock down jumpers and he produced well by shooting 5-10 FG w/ 2-4 3pts. Also Udrih and Dunleavy are healthy so the Bucks don’t need to rely entirely on Ellis + Jennings on the backcourt. The Bucks didn’t change much last night but they played with more confidence (especially Ilyasova) and they can carry on for tonight’s game.
This will be the third h2h between these two teams (it was a 2-game home-home series). The first two games were low scoring games dominated by strong defense even though they were relatively fast paced games. The difference for tonight’s game is that both teams are playing better on the offensive end. Prior to those two games against Milwaukee, Chicago L3 games off. rates were=93.4, now L3 CHI games, off. Rates=119.7! For the Bucks, I like the fact that Udrih + Dunleavy are healthy and Ilyasova is the starter @PF. It could be much worse if the Bucks were playing with Moute + Udoh + Sanders like in the final days of Skiles so I expect this contest to go Over the total posted.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Projected Line: 193 points
Last Monday’s game vs. Cleveland was the second best offensive game of the season for the Bulls.
Chicago shot 44-for-82 from the field (53.7 percent), 10-for-14 from three-point range and 20-for-24 from the foul line!
It was the third consecutive game that the Bulls are playing more an inside-out game than usual and the result was 34 assists on 44 made baskets! The Bulls assisted on nine of their 10 made threes and they are averaging 26.2 assists per game in the last 5 games.
Said Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau: ”We’re taking the right (3s). They’re in rhythm now, that’s the big thing. It’s off ball movement, hitting the paint, coming out, the extra pass, they’re rhythm 3s.”
The Bucks obviously have a better interior defense than the Cavaliers, but still the Bulls are playing their best offensive basketball of the season.
On the other side, the Bucks won last night against the Suns in the first game after the Skiles-era. Ilyasova returned to the starting lineup (a good move in my opinion) as the Bucks have in Ilyasova a “stretch-four” that can knock down jumpers and he produced well by shooting 5-10 FG w/ 2-4 3pts. Also Udrih and Dunleavy are healthy so the Bucks don’t need to rely entirely on Ellis + Jennings on the backcourt. The Bucks didn’t change much last night but they played with more confidence (especially Ilyasova) and they can carry on for tonight’s game.
This will be the third h2h between these two teams (it was a 2-game home-home series). The first two games were low scoring games dominated by strong defense even though they were relatively fast paced games. The difference for tonight’s game is that both teams are playing better on the offensive end. Prior to those two games against Milwaukee, Chicago L3 games off. rates were=93.4, now L3 CHI games, off. Rates=119.7! For the Bucks, I like the fact that Udrih + Dunleavy are healthy and Ilyasova is the starter @PF. It could be much worse if the Bucks were playing with Moute + Udoh + Sanders like in the final days of Skiles so I expect this contest to go Over the total posted.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 717 Orlando Magic @ 718 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: 201 points
Projected Line: 201 points
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 721 Dallas Mavericks @ 722 LA Clippers
Projected Line: LA Clippers by 3 points
Projected Line: LA Clippers by 3 points
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Dallas Mavericks (+6.5) FIRST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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