Projected line: United States by 25 points
Argentina tried everything in the semi final to slow down the United States and the truth is that the pace was slower than it uses to be on a game involving the US team (75.32). The Argentinian team held the US to 16 fast break points (first time on this competition that USA scored less than 20 FB points) and they also tried as much not to foul their opponents, as US just shot 5-7 FT, also a tournament low for the American team. Argentina mixed up their defensive schemes, but the United States still shot 18-42 3pts for a solid 43% mark. The reality is that this US team is vastly superior to any team in the world. I didn't expect them to shoot so well from behind the line, but they have been constantly great in every game from this tournament.
I successfully took Spain in both their quarter final and semi final games, as they have two good matchups against France and Russia plus their superior experience allowed them to prevail down the stretch. However, the Spanish team can't stay consistent and they have been far from the level they showed back in 2008, as in fact they are yet to deliver a solid performance from the beginning until the end of a game on this tournament. They were down by 3 points at HT against France and they were also down by 11 points at HT against Russia. The problem for Spain is that poor play on an entire half against the United States will result in a complete blowout.
Spain's perimeter play has been inconsistent throughout the whole tournament with 24-88 (27%) 3pts on their last five games. So, their biggest advantage in this contest will be obviously be down low. However, this Spanish team is just too slow if both Gasol brothers are on the court together and the United States are just tremendous in rotating the defense and they won't give up easily.
These two teams faced each other on a friendly game just before this competition and the United States won by 101-78. Marc Gasol didn't play in that game, however note that Ibaka had a monster 8-10 FG game. Also while Spain had already a very consolidated team chemistry, the US team was still trying to find chemistry on their lineup and the truth is that they have achieved that and they look to have very good team chemistry right now. Back in Beijing 2008, Spain played great against the United States in the final, but they were a much better team than they are right now, while the United States relaxed a bit, as they had defeated Spain in the group stage by 37 points. This time I expect a complete blowout from the United States in the final and so, I'll take the US team on the spread.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on United States (-20) @ -111 / 1.90 on Pinnacle
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