Projected line: 151 points | Argentina by 7 points
On paper, Russia would be a tough matchup for Argentina, especially on the defensive end. Russia is the best defensive team in this competition and they showed that by holding Spain to just 67 points in the semi finals. Their perimeter defense is terrific and their frontcourt rotates well to help when it's needed. They have also more depth than Argentina, so this would really be a tough matchup for Argentina.
However, there is on key component that will make Russia struggle on this contest: confidence! Argentina is fully prepared for this contest both mentally and physically. In the semi finals, they knew they were going to lose against the United States and even though they gave their best effort, they rested their starters in the fourth quarter, with Scola playing 29 minutes, Ginobili 28 minutes, Delfino 33 minutes and Nocioni 24 minutes. So, Argentina saved their best players while this loss was so expected that didn't shake their confidence and the Argentinian golden generation is ready to try to conquer another medal for their country on this contest.
But we can't say the same against Russia. They believed they could beat Spain in the semi finals and they were indeed leading the game at halftime by 11 points just to monumentally choke in the fourth quarter with a ridiculous number of turnovers (7 TO in 10min), a bunch of consecutive free throws missed (4-10 FT in 4Q) and a completely ridiculous shot selection that was of the fact that no Russian player knew what to do with the ball in the last minutes of the game. If Russia isn't already a good jump shooting team, they will just be worse today with their lack of confidence.
If this game gets close at the end, can you trust Russia against Ginobili and his veteran friends? No way! I expect a relatively slow paced game with the Russian defense causing a tough matchup to Argentina. Therefore, I don't expect a great Argentinian offensive game today, as any lack of defensive effort from a Russian player will result in an immediate benching by coach Blatt, as it has been happening throughout the whole competition. On the other hand, the lack of confidence from the Russians on the offense will indeed make them have a very poor offensive game due to their bad shooting, even from the FT line. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Argentina in a game with poor offensive efficiency from both teams and so, I'll take both Argentina and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 156 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Argentina (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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