Projected line: 152 points
We took Australia on the spread in their first two games and with success and so, we have a good read on their offense. They run well their plays, with a good pick n roll, they grab offensive rebounds and finalize them with points for a solid post game, despite for having any real star on their roster. They scored 50 points in the paint against Spain and this shows how efficient they can be. Australia also likes to score in transition and in their first two games, they scored 14 and 18 fast break points. Their only problem and the only reason why they scored just 71 and 70 points in those games was the fact that they cannot hit from the outside, as they shot 4-22 3pts vs Brazil and 4-24 3pts vs Spain, for a combined of 8-46 (17%) 3pts!!! I don't think this will happen today, especially against a team who isn't aggressive on defense and who doesn't close out well like China.
The Chinese team is coming from a clear loss against Russia, in a letdown spot after a big effort against Spain in their first game, where three of their starters played for more than 30 minutes. China needs their exterior game to be competitive, but they faced the second best defensive team in the tournament and it isn't easy to score against Russia. China didn't have the nice looks against Russia like they had against Spain and they ended up scoring just 16 points in the paint and committed the double of turnovers that they had committed against Spain. Today, they are on a bounce back spot and even though I like Australia's defense, they aren't clearly at the same level of Russia and so, China should have a decent offensive game today.
Therefore, I believe both teams have conditions to make an interesting offensive game today and so, I'll take the Over on this contest, as my projections give me enough value to take it in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 147,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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