MLB Free Premium Play 08/14: New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

New York  at Cincinnati

MLB - 955 New York Mets @ 956 Cincinnati Reds (Starting Pitchers: C. Young vs M. Latos) Both teams are on a good spot for today, as they had a rest day yesterday. The Mets will be using Young as their SP today and he is coming from a poor performance on his last start, where he allowed a season-worst of seven runs, while surrendering three home runs in just 4.1 IP of a 13-0 loss against Miami. Young is 1-5 and he has allowed nine homers in his last seven outings, while not being able to stay in the game for at least five innings in three occasions. Young is a flyball pitcher (57.5% rate FB% vs 25.3% GB%) and while he performs really well on pitcher-friendly parks like LA or SF, he will definitely struggle tonight in a hitting-friendly park like the Great American Ball park. After a good month of June, Young struggled in July with a 6.00 ERA (5.91 FIP) and he keeps struggling in August with a 6.35 ERA (5.92 FIP), so I expect him to have a lot of work tonight against the Reds offense. On the other hand, Cincinnati start Latos in the mount tonight and he has been pitching very well lately, with just 2, 2, 0 and 1 runs allowed (3.69, 3.84, 2.96 and 3,09 FIP). Latos is an excellent pitcher against RH batters (.198 BA and .588 OPS), but he struggles against LH batters (.265 BA and .826 OPS). Latos also has a high FB% which puts him prone to allow home runs. From his last four starts, two of them were against Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, whose top hitters are right handed, while the other two were against Colorado (good hitting team, but with a lot of banged up guys right now) and Houston (poor hitting team). Considering the fact that the Mets have a lot of LH batters (#9 in the league in OPS vs RH with .748), Latos is also likely to struggle tonight, as the Mets have 5 LH batters that they can use on their lineup. In fact, Latos has already played at NY against the Mets this season and he allowed 7 hits and 3 ER (7/3 K/BB ratio) in just 5IP. With both pitches prone to struggle today, I believe we have a lot of value on the Over and so, I'll take it on this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 8 (w/ C. Young & M. Latos) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes