Projected Line: 175 points
Indiana will be playing their third game in four days, while Memphis had one day off to prepare for this game. The Pacers is coming from a road loss in Atlanta last Saturday night, where the Pacers were very poor on defense, with Roy Hibbert being benched in the fourth quarter exactly because of that. Indiana's coach Frank Vogel confirmed these defensive problems of his team by saying that "we made a lot of mistakes and had many, many breakdowns as well. We just didn't execute what our defensive schemes are all about."
On the other hand, Memphis is coming from a home win against Denver, where they held the potent Nuggets offense to just 72 points! The Grizzlies played so well in that game on defense that either the Pacers have a defensive bounce back today or they will be in huge trouble today as well. In theory, the Pacers defense has the skills to limit the Grizzlies offense. They have an excellent frontcourt defense and they are also a good defensive rebounding team. Indiana is #1 on points in the paint allowed per game and #5 on defensive rebounding in the league. With Roy Hibbert being humiliated on the team's last game, I expect him to have a big effort on defense tonight against Marc Gasol. Atlanta crushed Indiana's defense with a very good all-around game, especially on the perimeter with 13-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-20 treys! Memphis isn't a good team on the outside shooting, as in fact they are just shooting 32% 3pts over their last 10 games, so I believe they won't be able to repeat what the Hawks did against Indiana last Saturday.
Indiana's offense needs to have their post up game working to be effective. Indiana's offense relies around their post ups, spot ups, transitions and pick and rolls ball handler plays, however Memphis is a top defense is all these plays: #3 on post up defense, #8 on spot up defense, #9 on transition defense and #4 on pick and roll ball handler defense! This will be a naturally tough matchup for Indiana, as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will have Roy Hibbert and David West a big fight, while Tony Allen will be defending Paul George and Mike Conley defending a banged up George Hill. I see these two teams have clear defensive edges over their opponent's offense and therefore, I expect a super low scoring game in here. I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 178 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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