Brazil is trying to win their first gold medal ever on the Olympic Soccer tournament, the only major soccer competition they have never won. They are by far the most talented team in the tournament and their starters are stars in some of the best teams in the world. Their path to the final has been quite easily, as none of their opponents could handle their talent, especially on offense. Brazil has been allowing goals in every game until now except in the semi finals and in some ways, they remind me of the USA men's basketball team. They know they are vastly superior to their opponents and so, they become sloppy and careless on the defensive end.
However, this game is a final and with the whole country ready to celebrate the only major title they have never won, I expect Brazil to enter this game very focused, especially with the tactic change they performed in the semi finals and that they will use again today in removing a forward (Hulk) to insert combo left back/midfielder Alex Sandro to give more stability on their defensive unit, with that resulting as I've previously mentioned in their first clean sheet on this tournament.
On the other hand, Mexico entered this competition with an uninspired 0-0 draw against South Korea, but then they started gaining more dynamic with Giovani dos Santos leading the way, while becoming one of the biggest stars of this tournament by not only scoring some goals, as they was also the playmaker of the team with great assists to striker Peralta. The bad news for Mexico is that Giovani dos Santos has pulled muscle in his thigh and he will miss today's final because of that, so the offensive ability of the Mexican team has received a tremendous blow.
Even though the Mexican defensive unit is well organized, I don't believe they will be able to handle the offensive power of Brazil with Neymar and Leandro Damiao leading the way. On the other hand, with Mexico missing their playmaker, they will struggle on offense and they won't be able to create a good number of scoring chances to counter the considerable number of scoring chances that Brazil will surely have today. Therefore, I'll be taking Brazil on today's final.
NOTE: Spread also available on 5Dimes at -129 / 1.775
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (-0,75) @ -124 / 1.80 on Pinnacle
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