Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Russia vs Australia
Projected lines: 157 points | Russia by 4 points
This is a game between two teams who already know in which position they will end this group stage. No matter what happens today, Russia will win this group, while Australia will qualify in the fourth position. So, this will be a non-competitive game between two teams with no major motivation to win this game, but also without any kind of pressure to win and so, they will rotate more their teams, allowing the bench players to have more minutes than usual.
Russia is coming from two very tough games in a row against Brazil and Spain, with the Russian team winning both games down the stretch, in very tight affairs. In their last game against Spain, Kirilenko played 36 minutes and Ponkrashov 38 minutes, with four of their players being on the court for more than 27 minutes. So, I really believe Russia will have a physical and psychological letdown on this contest after securing their group win on these two close contests.
On the other hand, Australia is coming from their best offensive game of the tournament against Great Britain, where they outscored the British team in the second half by 70-29, something that allowed the Australian coach to rotate the team in the fourth quarter of the game. Mills with 30 minutes played and Ingles with 32 minutes were the only players who played more than 30 minutes, so the Australian team should be fresh for today, especially when they are coming from games against Great Britain and China, in games very far from the competitive level Russia faced against Brazil and Spain.
Australia already knows they will face the United States in the quarter finals and so, I expect them to make a big effort today, as this will be their last winnable game they'll have on this competition. The Australian offense has been improving game after game on this competition and after starting this tournament with 4-22 and 4-24 3pts, they shot 8-24 and 13-24 3pts in their last two games. They are also very good in creating fast break points with 14, 18, 13 and 27 fast break points scored in their games so far. With Russia lacking their normal focus on defense, I expect the Australian good effort for today to cause a lot of problems to Russia, in a clear letdown spot for them. I believe Australia will then make this game much more competitive than the lines are currently predicting and so, I'll take Australia in here. With both teams knowing already the place where they'll finish this group stage, I expect this game to be quite open and with both teams playing better offense than defense and so, I'll take the Over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 152 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Australia (+7) @ -103 / 1.97 on Pinnacle
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