MLB - 911 Washington Nationals @ 912 San Francisco Giants
(Starting Pitchers: G. Gonzalez vs R. Vogelsong)
Washington will start Gio Gonzalez tonight who is coming from his first complete game since 2010. He has gone 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA on his last seven starts, while having a 42-15 K-BB ratio in 45.1 innings. On the other hand, Vogelsong leads the NL with a 2.27 ERA in 21 starts. However, I like the Over on this contest.
The Giants offense has been hitting well led by Posey, who has been having a .288 BA in August, the 4th best mark in the league. Gio had a poor July and it was even talked that the Nationals could try to save a bit his arm. He is coming from two great starts, but where he pitched for 8.0 and 9.0 IP, with 101 and 117 pitches thrown. However, he faced Miami and Houston (poor offenses) and he still allowed 9 hits in both games! With him coming from a complete game and a red count of 117 pitches, I don't trust him for tonight.
On the other hand, Vogelsong may have a 2.27 ERA, but his FIP is just 3.69 and when it's adjusted it gets worst into 4.43 xFIP. So, it will be natural to see a regression for him sooner or later and even though he didn't allow a single run on his last start against St. Louis, his FIP was still 3.52 so a regression is inevitable very soon. With the line being set so low and with me not trusting neither pitcher even though they have good numbers on paper, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911/912 Over 6.5 (w/ G. Gonzalez & R. Vogelsong) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
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