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| Denver at Orlando |
| NBA - 607 Denver Nuggets @ 608 Orlando Magic Play #1 Now that Ty Lawson is back and playing quite well, the Nuggets have their usual potent offense predicated in transition plays & attacking the rim while defensively, this team is really a mess! DEN is coming from a loss against a decent defensive team like CHA is… they scored 17 fast break pts + 54 points in the paint but they couldn’t hit a three pointer to save their lives (5-24 3pts). For tonight, I expect them to be aggressive while they won’t have any problems to score in transition and at the rim vs. ORL. ORL is now in “tank mode” and their defensive problems are well noticed -> they are allowing 16.6 fast break pts + 46.9 pts paint in L7 games! However, I also expect ORL to have some nice edges offensively vs. DEN! First of all, N. Vucevic isn’t Al Jefferson, but I still expect him to have a decent game against the awful DEN interior defense. DEN defense is also a bad PNR defensive team and so, ORL’s backcourt unit of Nelson, Afflalo & Oladipo (he won’t receive limited minutes tonight) will have a nice matchup to be decent as well. ORL’s pace factor as of late has been extremely fast (we have a good sample of games vs. fast tempo teams like PHI, SAS and HOU) and therefore, we can expect tonight’s game to be a pure run and gun game with less defense. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 607/608 Over 214 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 03/12: Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic
Daily Message 03/12
Daily Message 03/12:
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 347-295-10 ATS | +95.41 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 347-295-10 ATS | +46.92 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Sacramento (+2.5) LOSS
Memphis (-3) WIN
Under MIN/MIL 216 WIN
San Antonio (-5) WIN
Over CHI/SAS 190.5 WIN
Houston (+5) LOSS
Under GSW/DAL 208 WIN
Daily Message:
We really needed a good day and finally we were able to deliver it, as we are coming from a nice 5-2 ATS overall day yesterday.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
It sucks to have a bad run especially for those who didn't join me since the start of this long regular season, but I'm pretty confident that we will still finish strong the season and had a profitable 2nd half of season. Again, this is part of the process and we should stick it until the end!
Moving on for today, we have a big card of 11 games to work, so let's do it! There is a game in the card that I really like and I'm releasing my Game of the Week - Triple Dime Play! I'm just working in some details before releasing it.
As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! NOTE: Final Update will be released @6:15 PM EST!
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
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| Dallas at Golden State |
| NBA - 563 Dallas Mavericks @ 564 Golden State Warriors Play #7 Both teams are playing well and surprisingly, defense has been the X factor for both teams as of late. DAL has lost 3 straight games vs. CHI, SAS & DEN but they bounced back nicely in L2 games vs. POR & IND primarily because they were solid defensively in both games. After allowing 100, 112 & 115 points, the Mavs allowed just 98 & 94 in the L2 games. Dalembert is now getting more playing time while D. Harris has been a great factor for DAL in both ends of the floor. On the other end, GSW is really one of the best defensive teams in the league! They had some huge problems vs. PHX in the first half but HC Mark Jackson adjusted after the half time by playing “smaller” lineups and GSW crushed the Suns in the 3rd quarter w/ 38-17 score. Going for this contest, we have two teams that are committing few TO’s as of late – DAL = 11.6% TO/rate since the All star break vs. 11.3% from GSW! Also, we are dealing w/ two teams that have subpar FT/attempted per game numbers – both have FT/rate less than 20% since the all star break, so basically, we are dealing w/ two “pure” jump shooting teams. However, GSW is allowing just 29.7% from 3pts in L10 games - #2 best mark in the league! On the other end, S. Curry is banged up right now and clearly not playing @100%, so DAL defense have some room to defend GSW. The fact that the first 2 H2H’s games between these two teams ended up being “low scoring” games is not a coincidence, and w/ 209 pts line, I feel that we are dealing w/ inflated line in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 563/564 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
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| Houston at Oklahoma City |
| NBA - 561 Houston Rockets @ 562 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #6 OKC has won the first 2 H2H’s so far in this season and actually they have been dominating HOU since James Harden was traded. However, note that in the first 2 H2H’s games, OKC was rested while HOU was playing @b2b spot in BOTH games! In the first game, James Harden and Dwight Howard combined for 17 points on 6-22 shooting, as Houston lost 117-86. In the second contest, it was that epic HOU collapse in the second half as they scored only 19 points in the entire half! What will change for tonight?! Well, first of all, OKC defense has been pretty awful lately and this isn’t a mere case of “bad effort”! They are allowing way too many wide open shots and they are doubling in the post without any kind of discipline! Because HOU has Dwight Howard in the post and Perkins is still injured, OKC will have to double Howard down low, and this will create some good looks for HOU’s shooters! Also, James Harden is usually defended by Thabo Sefolosha and guess what… Sefolosha is injured and will miss tonight’s game! Without Perkins and Thabo, HOU’s 2 best players will have some individual edge in their matchups and ultimately this will make the difference as I expect the Rockets to be extremely competitive tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 561 Houston Rockets (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
NBA Free Premium Plays 03/11: San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls
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| San Antonio at Chicago |
| NBA - 559 San Antonio Spurs @ 560 Chicago Bulls Play #4 & #5 CHI is coming from a sequence of games in which they have faced mostly teams that play @ slow pace - NYK, BKN, DET (isn’t’ a slow paced team), MEM & MIA and obviously, this worked favorably for them! However, the Spurs are a completely different animal, and they will bring a style that CHI isn’t used to and will struggle heavily IMO to defend the Spurs’ well oiled offense! SAS is now healthy, they have the best record in the league and offensively wise, they are just killing the league right now due to their great tempo, great offensive flow and great continuity between the starting unit and their second unit. CHI is a great defensive team but they don’t have the proper depth to hang around w/ SAS for the full 48-minutes of the game. In the first H2H game between these two teams, I had one of my biggest plays of the season w/ CHI+8 and they won the game outright! However, note that SAS was playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, a b2b spot w/ their 2 previous games being against MIA & HOU – tough physical spot vs. rested CHI team! More importantly, please note for the Spurs’ starting lineup in that game: Parker + De Colo + Jeffers + Ayres + Duncan! Yep! The current Spurs’ team is healthy and they are prepared to have some revenge of that loss. I’m taking the Spurs for an easy win in a relatively high scoring game as I also expect CHI to score some points near the basket via Noah & Gibson. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 559 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 559/560 Over 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
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| Milwaukee at Minnesota |
| NBA - 557 Milwaukee Bucks @ 558 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #3 Yesterday, the Bucks defeated the Magic in a game where MIL’s head coach Larry Drew really wanted to win the game as he played MIL’s best player B. Knight for 44 minutes! Today’s contest will be MIL’s 4th game in 5 nights and it will be on the road so we are dealing with a team primed for a letdown. This 15-pts spread line is a fair line IMO due to MIL’s bad spot & MIN’s urgency in bouncing back after losing vs. TOR. However, I feel that we are getting some value w/ Under in this contest… MIL is an awful defensive team but their biggest weakness is to defend 3pts… Since the All Star break, they are allowing 40.7% while for the season, they are indeed the worst 3pts defensive team allowing 38.6%! The good news is that MIN isn’t a good 3pts shooting team – ranked #26 and in L10 games, they are shooting just 33.2% - ranked #25 in the league. MIN is instead a team that wants to pound down low and the Bucks are a decent defensive team protecting the rim… On the other end, w/ B. Knight coming from a huge effort last night, I don’t think that he will be efficient tonight. MIN L2 games vs. NYK & vs. TOR happened mostly because they couldn’t defend 3pts as NYK = 11-27 3pts & TOR = 14-24 but MIL’s is far from being a good outside shooting team! Actually, in L3 games, MIL has shot 5-20, 4-16 & 8-27 from 3pts! My fair line for this contest is 210/212 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 557/558 Under 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies
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| Portland at Memphis |
| NBA - 555 Portland Trail Blazers @ 556 Memphis Grizzlies Play #2 The Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season and right now, they have really one of the deepest benches in the league while they are a nightmare matchup for the Blazers. After losing @BKN without ZBO, MEM bounced back and defeated CHI & CHA in L2 games. They simply dominated down low in both games w/ clear edges in the boards + points in the paint. Note that they have faced CHI & CHA – two good interior defensive teams! For this contest, they will face a Blazers’ team that is coming from a tough OT loss @HOU. POR’s head coach doesn’t trust in his bench and only Mo Williams received decent minutes in that game as 3 POR’ starters logged +40min! This can be a huge problem for POR tonight because MEM’s second unit can really change the dynamic of the game in their favor. POR has only Robin Lopez & LMA on the frontcourt (+ Thomas Robinson coming off the bench) and I expect MEM to just pound them down low. POR’ offense will need some sharp outside shooting for tonight but MEM’s defense has been improving pretty fast w/ Marc Gasol, Conley and Tony Allen being healthy. POR has committed 20, 16, 19 & 21 TO’s in L4 games and this can problematic vs. MEM defense that has Conley, Lee & Allen playing considerable minutes. I expect MEM to defeat the Blazers with some ease tonight because they are really a bad matchup for POR while their spot is better as well! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 556 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
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