MLB Pick #1: 901 Detroit Tigers @ 902 Baltimore Orioles
(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs. C. Tillman)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 901 Detroit Tigers ML @ -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Detailed Write Up:
I expect DET to be “sharper” in handling this contest… they had a tight battle against KC for the division title in which every game mattered, while BAL even though they could have grabbed home court edge through the playoffs, they didn’t put much focus on it as they finished the regular season 3-5 L8 games and failed to hit .200 or more in the L4 games!
Regarding the matchups, I expect BAL’s SP Chris Tillman to have some problems facing DET’s lineup.
Tillman enjoyed a nice 2nd half season w/ 2.33 ERA but as usual w/ him, his advanced stats were a bit worse: 3.38 ERA & 3.48 xFIP! His month of September wasn’t that good and this a bad sign b/c of his L6 opponents TOR, BOS, NYY, BOS, CIN & MIN, only the Twins were a good offense in this second half of season! After some slumps and w/ a healthier Miguel Cabrera, DET’s offense was back in track and finished the month of September being #2 top ranked offense in the league!
On the other end, DET’s SP Max Scherzer also enjoyed a fine 2nd half of season w/ 2.87 ERA! However, unlike Tillman, his advanced numbers are supporting such stellar ERA number: 2.70 FIP & 3.12 xFIP! Note also that unlike Tillman, Scherzer faced some tough matchups lately by facing twice MIN, twice KC, CLE & CWS. All these teams were in the top15 offense in the 2nd half! Finally, unlike Tillman, Scherzer didn’t face the Orioles this season (Tillman had one start vs. DET early in the season) and so, I expect Scherzer to be better than Tillman today. Obviously, the bullpen could be a problem for the Tigers, but we are getting Scherzer w/ nice rest so this potential problem might appear in the series for DET but not now!
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