NBA Preseason Pick: Toronto Raptors @Boston Celtics (played in Portland, ME)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
According to last year’s numbers, this line should be at 194/196 points. That’s probably why the first game between these two teams in the preseason had a totals line of 197 points, while today’s game has a totals line of 204 points!
That game ended up suffering an offensive explosion with 225 points scored, with an absolute lack of defensive aggression by both teams, but also with both teams hitting some really tough shots. When we have Avery Bradley shooting 9-15 FG and 4-5 3pts, I guess this says it all! In fact, these two teams combined 26-51 3pts! That’s 51% 3pts! The story of that game was marked by the duel between Kyle Lowry and Marcus Smart, with Lowry outplaying the Celtics’ rookie.
"You could see me being lenient at times" Marcus Smart said on Tuesday. "At times I picked him up, it was very effective; kind of interrupted him, speeded him up at a different pace that he didn't want to play at. In the beginning you could see that's not what was going on. I was letting him dictate the game. He was controlling the game."
I think Marcus Smart will be fired up today to try to play a lot better defense against Kyle Lowry than he did in the first game between these two teams. In fact, with today’s game being a rematch, I expect both teams to be a lot more aggressive on defense this time around. A neutral venue game will also help, with both teams coming fired up. I believe this totals line is completely overvalued due to the offensive explosion of the first game and so, I’ll take the Under in here.
No comments:
Post a Comment