Soccer Pick #1: Zenit Petersburg vs Monaco
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Zenit Petersburg @ -134 / 1.74 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:
Obviously, things got easier for Zenit when Benfica’s GK was sent off and they almost immediately scored the second goal, so the game was decided in the first 30 minutes of the match. However, in this initial span, Zenit looked impressive w/ their pace, pressure and objectivity. Their coach Villas Boas apparently knows how to motivate his players and Zenit is the #1 team in this group in my opinion.
On the other end, Monaco is struggling in their domestic league to start the season but they were able to defeat Leverkusen in the first round. Without Falcao and James Rodriguez, they don’t have much firepower on the front (no surprise in here) and they needed a midfielder Joao Moutinho to score the winning goal! Their offensive “stats” in that game says it all: 4 total shots, 1 shot on target (the goal) & just 2 chances created! Zenit's defense was improved for this season w/ the additions of Garay and Javi Garcia, and I expect them to hold Monaco's poor offense quite easily today.
Although Monaco held Leverkusen scoreless, note that the Germans had several chances to score at least one goal but they just couldn’t score! Their offensive stats for the game: 13 total shots, 2 shots on target and 10 chances created! Still, Monaco won the game… Zenit is playing w/ some technical lighting pace forwards on the front who change constantly their position and will take advantage especially of Ricardo Carvalho's slow footed ability on the back.
We are talking about two teams w/ different skill sets w/ Zenit being way superior in this matchup, therefore, I'm taking Zenit to win this contest.
Some notes that I've made for today:
Bayer Leverkusen vs Benfica
I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch w/ both teams bringing a pro-active approach to the field.
I had a play w/ Both Teams to Score in Benfica’s first game vs. Zenit in which we lost because Benfica couldn’t score a goal. I can just guess, but I’m pretty sure that Benfica would score one goal if not the fact that their GK Artur was sent off in the 18th minute and therefore, Benfica played more than 70 minutes w/ 10 men! Nevertheless, the Portuguese team attempted 17 shots & created 14 chances to score despite playing almost 80% of the time w/ one man down! They attack using both their full-backs from the wings and currently they have a youngster Brazilian player that his making some strides in the domestic league: Anderson Talisca!
As I’ve mentioned on my Zenit vs. Monaco write up, Leverkusen had several chances to score against Monaco in the first round but wasted them all. I expect them to play at their usual tempo and explore Benfica’s poor defensive line. Last season, Benfica had one of the best defensive lines in Europa but this isn’t the case anymore: their GK situation is messed up as Artur doesn’t have the proper skill set to start in a team like Benfica & Julio Cesar lacks the proper fitness level to play right now. Garay is gone, Siqueira is gone and finally, their defensive midfielder Samaris is still adapting to the team! There are too many holes on their defense and the opponents are taking advantage of it, Leverkusen will have their chances too.
I had a play w/ Both Teams to Score in Benfica’s first game vs. Zenit in which we lost because Benfica couldn’t score a goal. I can just guess, but I’m pretty sure that Benfica would score one goal if not the fact that their GK Artur was sent off in the 18th minute and therefore, Benfica played more than 70 minutes w/ 10 men! Nevertheless, the Portuguese team attempted 17 shots & created 14 chances to score despite playing almost 80% of the time w/ one man down! They attack using both their full-backs from the wings and currently they have a youngster Brazilian player that his making some strides in the domestic league: Anderson Talisca!
As I’ve mentioned on my Zenit vs. Monaco write up, Leverkusen had several chances to score against Monaco in the first round but wasted them all. I expect them to play at their usual tempo and explore Benfica’s poor defensive line. Last season, Benfica had one of the best defensive lines in Europa but this isn’t the case anymore: their GK situation is messed up as Artur doesn’t have the proper skill set to start in a team like Benfica & Julio Cesar lacks the proper fitness level to play right now. Garay is gone, Siqueira is gone and finally, their defensive midfielder Samaris is still adapting to the team! There are too many holes on their defense and the opponents are taking advantage of it, Leverkusen will have their chances too.
LEAN: OVER 2.5 Goals
Anderlecht vs Borussia Dortmund
The problem for Dortmund this season is primarily related w/ their defense. After that game vs. Arsenal, they played 3 domestic league games and they have allowed 2 goals in each game.
Anderlecht is coming from a nice draw @Galatasary in a game where they looked the better team in the first 70 minutes before having a physical letdown later in the game. They didn’t went to Turkey searching for one point while packing their defense and hope for the best, no! They tried to win the game w/ a pro-active mindset: 12 totals shots & 11 chances created!
The problem for Anderlecht is that they are a young team prone to commit individual errors and obviously, Dortmund has plenty of firepower on the front to make some damage.
With both teams wanting to win and play positive football, I expect some goals and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.
LEAN: OVER 2.75 Goals
Arsenal vs Galatasaray
Here's a good article about the poor state of mind of the Turkish team: http://www.thescore.com/
I'm fading them as after losing the first game, Arsenal will bring some sense of urgency to the field in here.
LEAN: Arsenal -1
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