NFL Premium Card 09/29

NFL Pick #1 & #2: 273 New England Patriots @ 274 Kansas City Chiefs

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 274 Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

Pick: Under 47.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write up:

I expect this contest to be a tight game w/ both defenses having a considerable edge in the matchups. NE offense is not “clicking” for several reasons: bad OL, Gronk is not healthy and Brady looks a bit “shaky. KC defense will be a tough matchup for them due to pressure they will make on the front, they are ranked #3 in the league in Pass Protection – adj. sack rate w/ 8.3%! KC’s defense has been poor vs. run but NE’s offensive running game is struggling as well – ranked #20 in the league. Note that against OAK last week, NE ran for 76 yds w/ 32 carries & 2.4 yds/avg! With yesterday’s game vs. MIA, OAK has now allowed 212, 188 & 157 rushing yards on the other 3 games! That’s not a good sign for NE's rushing unit!

On the other end, we have KC’s Jamal Charles returning to action and we all know how important he is for KC! KC will try to dictate the tempo of the game, keep the ball possession and do damage on the ground. NE’s defense has been by far their biggest unit and therefore, I also think that in this matchup the defensive side will prevail.

My fair line in here is KC PK line & 44 points and that’s why I’m taking KC + UNDER as my plays!