NFL Week 7 - 405 Buffalo Bills @ 406 Miami Dolphins
Projected Line: 40 points
Miami is coming from a bye week, while Buffalo is coming from an overtime home game against the Bengals. Buffalo played well against Cincinnati without committing a single error, something very tough to do when they started a very inexperienced QB in Thad Lewis. The Bills used a 50/50 gameplan on offense and they played quite decently in both ways with Lewis having a decent 19/32 216 yds 2/0 TD/INT performance, while the running game played well as well, with C.J. Spiller having an impressive 5.5 Y/C. Miami's pass defense struggled for three games in a row prior to their bye week, with poor performances against Atlanta, New Orleans and Baltimore. However, they had a bye week to correct these issues and they will have several secondary players coming back to his game as well. Also considering the fact that Buffalo is a run-oriented team with an inexperienced QB, I believe this will be a good spot for Miami's defense.
On the other side, Miami's offense has been struggling on its passing game. Buffalo's pass defense has been quite inconsistent this season by alternating good games with some ridiculous performances. However, considering the fact that Miami's pass protection has been horrible (#31 in the league), I expect Buffalo's defense to do a good job today by putting a lot of pressure on Ryan Tannehill. On the other hand, Miami's running game is also quite unimpressive and I don't see the Dolphins having a great offensive game today. Therefore, I believe this will be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 405/406 Under 44 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 7 - 407 Chicago Bears @ 408 Washington Redskins
Projected Line: Washington by 3 points
Chicago is currently dealing with some injuries on their DL, as they lost tackles Henry Melton and Nate Collins to season-ending knee injuries. This was the main reason why a washed-up Brandon Jacobs destroyed them last week with 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week. The Bears' pass rush has also been quite unimpressive this season by being #30 in the league with just eight sacks. The Bears' defense have then been unable to put pressure on the quarterback and adding this to their inability to stop the opposing running game, so they should struggle a lot today against Washington. The Redskins' running game seems to be improving as the season goes by and they had good numbers in three of their last four games! Even RGIII is now running more, so Washington has some big offensive edges for today.
But the key is also on the matchup between Chicago's offense and Washington's defense. The Redskins' defense has been decent on their last two games. They took advantage of Oakland being without their starting QB Terrelle Pryor and at Dallas, they limited Tony Romo to 18/30 170yds 1/1 TD/INT! Dallas scored 31 points in that game due to a fumble and a punt return, not because they were impressive against the Redskins. Chicago's offense is coming from good passing games against the Saints and the Giants, but their running game has been very poor. I believe Washington has some key edges on offense that will torch the Bears' defense today, while I don't trust Jay Cutler to compensate such huge edges on the other side of the football. Therefore, I'll be taking the Redskins in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 408 Washington Redskins (+1) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline
NFL Week 7 - 409 Dallas Cowboys @ 410 Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Line: Philadelphia by 6 points
Dallas will be playing today without RB DeMarco Murray and DE DeMarcus Ware, in two massive losses for them. The Cowboys would need these two players to burn the clock against Philadelphia's fast paced offense, but without them the Eagles have a great matchup today.
The Cowboys are coming from two big games against Denver and Washington. Now without a running game (Murray out) and without their best two pass rushers (Spencer and Ware), Dallas will massively struggle today. Nick Foles is a very capable QB and the Eagles' running game has been close to unstoppable this season. With Dallas being unable to pressure Foles, Philadelphia's offense will roll over the Cowboys today.
I expect Dallas's mental and physical tiredness from playing two big games in a row to be explored by Philadelphia's fast paced offense and so, I'll be taking the Eagles in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 410 Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline
NFL Week 7 - 411 St Louis Rams @ 412 Carolina Panthers
Projected Line: Carolina by 10 points
St Louis's offense has been exclusively living from its passing game. However, Carolina's pass defense is #3 in the league and so, I believe the Panthers will completely stop the Rams' offense today. So, the key will be on the matchup between Carolina's offense and St Louis's defense. The Panthers's offense is close to 50/50 and even though their playbook is quite poor, the truth is that they have been quite decent on offense this season mostly due to some great OL play, as they are #3 in the league in run blocking and #9 on pass protection! Therefore, I believe Carolina will eventually score a decent amount of points today against a decent but not great Rams defense.
St Louis has the most overrated positive record in the league right now. They defeated Arizona in Week 1 due to a big late choke from the Cardinals, then they defeated the terrible Jaguars and last week, they crushed a Houston team that is close to be at meltdown level right now. I believe the Rams are going to be exposed today, with the Panthers picking up an easy win in here. So, I'll be taking Carolina today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 412 Carolina Panthers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 7 - 415 San Francisco 49ers @ 416 Tennessee Titans
Projected Line: San Francisco by 7 points
Tennessee has a terrible spot in here, as they are in the middle of a stretch of two games where they face Seattle and San Francisco in back to back weeks! The Titans' offense struggled big time at Seattle and Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't do a thing in that game. On the other side, Tennessee has some defensive merit in limiting Seattle's passing game, while the Seahawks ran the football for 151 yards with a nice 4.6 Y/C, something that tells us that San Francisco can have the same edge in here.
Jake Locker is coming back today, but he won't be physically at 100% and he will face a very physical San Francisco defense. This can become problematic for the Titans, as Chris Johnson isn't having a good season once again and the 49ers run defense is always a very tough opponent. I also believe Tennessee's defense will struggle today, especially after its DL having to face 33 carries from the Seahawks last week. Frank Gore and his running crew buddies will take advantage of Tennessee's poor physical spot to torch them to give their team an easy win today. I'm taking San Francisco today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 415 San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 7 - 417 Cleveland Browns @ 418 Green Bay Packers
Projected Line: 41 points
Green Bay is currently without WR's Randall Cobb and James Jones, besides RB James Starks. Aaron Rodgers will have to play today without a lot of receiving options available, just like last season, so I believe that the Packers' offense will struggle today against a good Browns defense. Cleveland actually struggled last week against Detroit down the stretch, but I believe that they will bounce back today, especially with star CB Joe Haden guarding Jordy Nelson very closely. The Packers are coming from consecutive tough games against Detroit and Baltimore, so I believe that they will pay the price of that today and struggle on offense against a good Cleveland defense.
Green Bay's main problem on defense is its pass defense, but Brandon Weeden has been terrible this season and it's unlikely that he will pose any kind of threat to the Packers today. Green Bay's run defense has been playing very well this season, so I don't see how the Browns will actually score a considerable amount of points today. So, I see this game being a low scoring one and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 417/418 Under 45 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 7 - 421 Denver Broncos @ 422 Indianapolis Colts
Projected Line: 51 points
Indianapolis's offense is a very conservative unit. Their OC has been setting a 50/50 proportion on offense between pass and run. The best way to beat Denver is to take the ball of Peyton Manning's hands and so, I expect the Colts to run the football a lot today by burning the clock while setting up long drives.
Denver's defense has been quite good against the running game and they are ready to fight off the Colts' running game. The Broncos will get Von Miller back on defense and this will of course improve their defense even more tonight. On the other hand, the Colts' defense has been playing quite well this season and Peyton Manning might struggle tonight by missing T Orlando Franklin, after T Ryan Clady being already on the IR. Robert Mathis has been an absolute beast this season with 9.5 sacks already and he should cause some issues to the Broncos' offense.
With such a massive totals line, I believe that we have some great value on the under, as Indianapolis will try to burn as much time as possible from the clock, while the Broncos offense will likely face a defense that is better than any defense that have faced so far in the league. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 421/422 Under 56,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 7 - 399 San Diego Chargers @ 400 Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Week 7 - 403 Cincinnati Bengals @ 404 Detroit Lions
***2-Team 7pts Teaser***
This isn't an easy spot for San Diego, as they are coming from a MNF game at home and they will now play a 1PM East Coast game at Jacksonville. However, the lowly Jaguars just can't play competitive football this season. They covered the massive spread at Denver last week because the Broncos played sloppy football after building a 14-0 lead. Maurice Jones-Drew doesn't seem to be in good form after a season-ending injury last year and Chad Henne is showing why he is a backup on a team that has Blaine Gabbert as their usual starting QB. San Diego's defense hasn't been great this season, but they actually played well against the Colts last week. Their run defense has been improving as well and they should be able to do a nice job against Jacksonville's poor offense. On the other hand, the Jaguars' pass rush is poor and with Philip Rivers having time to throw the football, the Chargers will score enough points today for a comfortable win in here.
When I look to this matchup, I immediately give an edge to Cincinnati, as they seem to have the perfect defense to slow down Detroit's offense, just like they did it against both the Patriots and the Packers. Cincinnati is #4 in the league on pass defense and they have already faced very good passing teams this season. They are also good on defense against the rush, but the key in here for today is stopping Matthew Stafford and Detroit's passing game. I believe Cincinnati has definitely the right tools to do it with a great pass rush and decent secondary. On the other hand, Cincinnati's offense has been clearly weaker than their defense once again. Their loss at Cleveland was mostly due to some bad offense with a -30.8% DVOA, but they improved against New England and Buffalo on the team's last two games. Even BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been decent lately with a good performance against the Bills. I believe Cincinnati's defense will limit Detroit's offense quite well today, with the Bengals' offense doing well enough to make this game at least highly competitive.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 399 San Diego Chargers (-1) x 403 Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ -130 / 1.77 on Bookmaker
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