NBA - 715 Indiana Pacers @ 716 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #1
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
From what I watched during the preseason, the Hornets were one of the biggest surprises on offense. They got a huge upgrade during the offseason with the arrival of Jrue Holiday, who has been pressuring a lot the opposing ball handler, but it was on offense especially on pick and rolls that he looked very impressive. His explosion is also a huge upgrade over the slow footed Greivis Vasquez. With him and Ryan Anderson on the perimeter with Anthony Davis as the roll man, the Hornets are now able to use explosive pick and roll plays on their offense. Anthony Davis looked good in the preseason, just like Eric Gordon. On the other hand, Al-Farouq Aminu is being used as the team's wild card, with the main goal of crashing the boards when his team mates are shooting the ball. The Pelicans also don't seem to want to play at the slow tempo that they used to play in the previous season and so, I believe they will push the pace today, especially on a game against Indiana that is on a back to back spot.
We all know that the Pacers are an elite defensive team, but they had an easy task yesterday. I had mentioned how Nikola Vucevic would struggle against Roy Hibbert and the truth is that Indiana ended the game with 18(!) blocks! But Indiana will come from facing Vucevic/Maxiell to Smith/Anderson, a much tougher matchup for the Pacers, especially on the second night of a back to back. On the other side, the Pelicans' defense didn't impress me on the preseason, especially their interior defense. This is terrible news for them, as they will face a frontcourt with Roy Hibbert, David West and Luis Scola. Even though they scored just 17 points in the second quarter, Indiana still ended the game with 97 points scored. Paul George is now clearly a league star and Indiana has the necessary conditions to be a competent offensive team in here.
Last season this matchup was quite different, as the Pelicans were the slowest paced team in the league and lacked explosion on the backcourt. On the other hand, Indiana had a quite inconsistent offense. Things will be different tonight. The pace will be faster and so, this totals line is way too low for this contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 719 Memphis Grizzlies @ 720 San Antonio Spurs
Play #2
Memphis didn't have a good preseason. Their new Head Coach wants to change the team's offensive philosophy in order for them to stop being so post-centric, but such change takes time to be well executed and looking at their preseason, the Grizzlies are still far from what their coach wants them to be on offense. On the other hand, Memphis continues having the same defensive principles and so, we can expect them to continue being one of the best defensive teams in the league.
San Antonio didn't make a lot of changes on the preseason and they showed last season in the Conference Finals that they are indeed a tough matchup for Memphis by sweeping them. Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter defend the Grizzlies' frontcourt Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph extremely well and with the Grizzlies being currently on a process of offensive adjustments that seems to be way behind schedule, I believe that the Spurs defense will do a very good job on them. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 721 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 722 Utah Jazz
Play #5
Utah would never be a great team this season, but Trey Burke's injury makes things even tougher for them. Therefore, the Jazz has very little offensive skills on the wings, if we exclude Gordon Hayward. For a team that has two solid young post players, but who need to be fed on the right spots in order to be any kind of offensive threats, things will be quite tough for Utah's offense all season long, but especially at the start of the season. So, the only chance the Jazz have to be effective on offense right now is via second chance points and points in the paint. The problem is that they will face a Thunder team that plays with a typical frontcourt formed by Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka that will be a very tough matchup for Utah's frontcourt. I've been criticizing Scott Brooks's inflexibility in not playing small ball, but on this specific case, Oklahoma City's usual lineup has a great matchup to be dominant on defense.
The Thunder are still without Russell Westbrook and with Kevin Martin leaving during the off-season, I don't believe they will be an elite offense at the start of this season. They are way too dependent from Kevin Durant on offense, who will be even more carefully guarded by his opponents than usual. Oklahoma City has some young players with a lot of potential, but they will have a bad spot tonight by playing on the road on a very tough environment like Utah. Therefore, I believe this game will be a grind out game with Utah trying to stay competitive on this way, as they really lack offensive skills to do it on any other way. I believe this totals line is overrated given the struggles that both offenses will have at the start of the season and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 725 Denver Nuggets @ 726 Sacramento Kings
Play #3 & #4
The Kings were the second worst defensive team in the league and so, the team hired during the off-season Mike Malone to be their new head coach for two reasons: improve the locker room's discipline and the team's defense, as Malone did an excellent job at Golden State last season in putting the Warriors playing some decent defense at last. I know Preseason doesn't mean a lot, but Sacramento ended its preseason games with good defensive numbers! In just two games they had defensive ratings above 100! On offense, the Kings showed a little bit more problems as Greivis Vasquez is still adapting to his new team and he also got injured. Anyway, the Kings seem to be a more disciplined team, as nobody got a technical foul during the preseason! Sacramento had a practice last Monday and coach Malone left a serious warning to his team there:
"The energy, the effort, the discipline, the focus just wasn't there for whatever reason." Mike Malone said. "I can't explain it. No excuse, no explanation. It was just a bad day for us, and we have to have a much better practice (today) heading into the regular season, three games in four nights."
This was an excellent mental play by Mike Malone to avoid his players to get cocky and he managed exactly that.
“John Salmons, unsolicited stepped up and said ‘Coach can I say something?’ Chuck Hayes said ‘Coach can I say something?’ You have two guys that have been in the league for 12 years, 10 years and they said all the right things. I said that’s when we have a chance to be great, when you start policing yourselves. I should not have to stop practice three times as a head coach. I’ll do it and I have no problem doing it but you guys need to get on each other. You guys want to be leaders, you want to have the season we all talk about having? Well demand it from yourself and once you do that, start demanding it from your teammates. The fact that John and Chuck said something was great. Then I got a few texts from different players on the team last night apologizing. They were fully aware.”
The Kings will host the Nuggets in here, a team that is way behind schedule on preparing for the new season, especially regarding team chemistry. Due to injuries and also the arrival of a new Head Coach, Denver is currently starting a lineup that was a disaster on preseason. The good news for Denver is that their second unit is very good with Andre Miller, Evan Fournier, Anthony Rudolph and Timofey Mozgov, but Ty Lawson's injury will probably force Coach Brian Shaw to use Miller for a considerable amount of time in here. Also none of the Nuggets' frontcourt players is really skilled enough to post up on a consistent basis, however Brian Shaw seems committed in having a high volume of post ups on his offense. Also note that Denver without Ty Lawson will struggle to score in transition, as all the Nuggets' quick players are injured/banged up: Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried! In fact, the Nuggets scored 32, 15, 16, 8, 11, 7 and 15 fast break points during the preseason. If we exclude those 32 fast break points against the slow and old Lakers, things didn't look good for the Nuggets.
With Ty Lawson's injury happening just during the last game of the preseason, Brian Shaw didn't have time to build a new game plan. Now against this improved Kings defense and with both offenses still struggling to adapt to new coaches and systems, I believe this totals line is overrated and so, I see excellent value to take the Under in here. Also with Denver being so dependent from Lawson, I believe Sacramento has the right edges to pick up a comfortable win in here and so, I'll be taking the Kings in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Under 205,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 726 Sacramento Kings (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Brooklyn Nets @ 704 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #6
I believe we have a clear case of public overreacting in here on the fact that Mike Brown (defensive-minded coach) is now once again Cleveland's coach. The line was at 197 points that is my projected line, but it's now at 194 points, so we have good value on the Over in here.
The problem for Cleveland is that their defense didn't look on preseason, while their new uptempo style will be a good edge against the slow footed Nets tonight. Offensively, the Cavaliers don't have a lot to worry about it. With Kyrie Irving as their starting PG and with Jarrett Jack coming off the bench, the Cavs will rely on pick and rolls to do their damage against the Nets. That's an area where in my opinion Cleveland will have success, as the Nets' frontcourt won't have the proper speed to rotate and protect their guards (Brook Lopez certainly won't leave his position in the painted area no matter what). Anderson Varejao is a solid finisher on pick and rolls, while Tristan Thompson is possibly the player that has impressed me the most with his evolution on the preseason, with his right-handed shooting stroke looking smooth and really effective. Cleveland will be a strong offensive rebounding team this season and Brooklyn with Brook Lopez and the veteran Kevin Garnett will struggle to be a decent defensive rebounding team.
On the other side, I didn't really like Cleveland's overall defense on the preseason. Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters looked disinterested and sloppy to get back, something that will be explored by Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston, who impressed me on the preseason as well. With Brook Lopez having a normal edge down low over Cleveland's frontcourt, the Nets will have their usual inside out game that will be lethal, having in account the Cavs' poor perimeter defense. Also note that with Jason Kidd as their coach, the Nets are now playing faster than they were under Avery Johnson. I believe we have all the necessary ingredients for a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Dallas Mavericks
Play #7
I believe that there aren't big differences between these two teams and so, Atlanta has some nice value at the current line. I watched some preseason games that involved these two teams and both Dallas and Atlanta showed a lot of inconsistency, while being unable to play solid long minutes of basketball. They looked sharp for some moments, but they just couldn't play well for a long amount of time.
Dallas will have three new starters in comparison with last season: Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis and Samuel Dalembert. Even though they are all at least decent players, they will need time to learn the team's system. During the preseason, I watched these players committing silly defensive errors that drove Coach Rick Carlisle crazy! On the other hand, Atlanta has a quite solid lineup. They don't have the proper depth to compete against the best teams in the league, but their starting unit has some potential edges on this matchup. Jeff Teague's speed will be a massive problem for Calderon's lack of lateral speed, while DeMarre Carroll will guard Monta Ellis in order to hide Kyle Korver defensively by putting him on Shawn Marion.
The Hawks will Paul Millsap and Al Horford have two finesse frontcourt players, like Dirk Nowitzki, but Dallas lack the players to abuse them on the down low. Behind Dalembert and Nowitzki, the Mavs have on their frontcourt depth, DeJuan Blair... I believe this game will be played by two quite similar teams, so I believe anything more than the usual homecourt edge for Dallas in here is overvaluing them. So, I'll be taking Atlanta tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Atlanta Hawks (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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