MLB - 907 San Francisco Giants @ 908 Cincinnati Reds
(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs H. Bailey)
The Giants is starting Tim Lincecum, who allowed four runs in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers last Wednesday. Lincecum is being very inconsistent this season, with control problems, a high number of walks and high pitch counts, so he can't go deep in the games. However, he will be facing the Reds tonight, who hit much better versus LH pitchers yesterday (as shown yesterday) than RH pitchers like Lincecum. Therefore, I expect Lincecum to be able to have a decent outing in here.
On the other hand, Cincinnati will start Homer Bailey, who allowed four runs in six innings last Wednesday against Oakland. He allowed all four runs on the fourth inning, while he allowed just two hits and a walk on the other five innings of the outing. His 3.75 season ERA is a decent stat, but his advanced numbers are even better: 2.70 FIP and 2.98 xFIP! Bailey allowed a home run on each of his last three starts, but Oakland, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are teams with nice offensive numbers. On the other hand, San Francisco is a team full of RH batters and Bailey has a 1.90 FIP and 2.50 xFIP versus RH hitters this season! I expect Bailey to dominate the Giants tonight, while Lincecum should be able to do a fine job in here as well, so I see this game being a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907/908 Under 8.5 (w/ T. Lincecum & H. Bailey) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
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