MLB - 919 Minnesota Twins @ 920 Tampa Bay Rays
(Starting Pitchers: S. Deduno vs R. Hernandez)
Tampa Bay will start Roberto Hernandez tonight, who allowed three runs on six innings against the Astros last Wednesday. Hernandez is particularly terrible versus LH batters with .362 wOBA, 5.53 FIP and 4.13 xFIP, therefore Minnesota's lineup for tonight will put in jeopardy:
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B
2. Joe Mauer (L) C
3. Ryan Doumit (S) DH
4. Justin Morneau (L) 1B
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B
6. Oswaldo Arcia (L) LF
7. Chris Parmelee (L) RF
8. Aaron Hicks (S) CF
9. Pedro Florimon (S) SS
According to my numbers, Hernandez is coming from four poor outings in a row, with two of them being against subpar offenses like Houston and the Yankees. On the other hand, Minnesota will be starting Samuel Deduno tonight, who allowed just one run on seven innings against the Royals last Thursday. Deduno is a groundball machine, who is #3 in the league on GB/FB with 3.13! Tampa Bay's offense is #3 in the league on FB% with 38.3%, so Deduno is a terrible matchup for them. Deduno has been very solid lately, with two starts being particularly good, as he faced two top teams in Cleveland and Detroit. I believe Deduno will have a nice outing tonight, while Hernandez will struggle, so I see great value on the Twins for tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ S. Deduno) @ +152 / 2.52 on Betonline
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