MLB Premium Play 07/05: Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

MLB - 963 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 964 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: H. Ryu vs M. Cain)

The LA Dodgers will start Hyun-Jin Ryu tonight and he seems to be hitting a wall lately, after a great start of the season. However, he seems to be able to limit damage quite well, with a 2.70 ERA in June after a 2.38 ERA in May, but his advanced stats tell another story: .210 BA in May vs .280 BA in June; 3.65 FIP in May vs 4.12 FIP in June! According to my ranks, Ryu faced just one good offensive team on his last four starts and it was indeed on his last start against Philadelphia. Ryu has been using the fact that he is a rookie to surprise his opponents, but he won't be able to do that tonight, as he will face the Giants for the fourth time this season. He dominated San Francisco on his first start of the season, but then he was worse on the following two outings. So, it will be up to the Giants' lineup to expose Ryu's struggles tonight. San Francisco didn't play yesterday at Cincinnati due to the bad weather and I believe they will have a decent offensive spot tonight. Not only they have a 111 wRC+ at home versus 84 on the road, as they are also #6 in the league versus LH pitchers, while they are just #17 versus RH pitchers. So, I expect San Francisco to be able to put Ryu in trouble tonight.

On the other hand, Matt Cain will start for the Giants tonight and he is pitching much better as of late. His last five starts were always below 4.00 FIP, even though he has been facing an easy schedule as of late. Cain is a flyball pitcher and so, he likes to play at home on a pitcher-friendly park. He has been dominating the Dodgers this season with one and zero earned runs allowed on two games against them earlier on the season, so I believe Cain will be able to have another good outing tonight. I believe the Giants will have a clear SP edge tonight and therefore, I expect them to pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 964 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ M. Cain) @ -124 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes