(Starting Pitchers: W. Peralta vs S. Strasburg)
Washington's offense has finally woken up. They are #26 for the season on wRC+ with 86, #12 over the last 14 days and #6 over the last week! They will face Wily Peralta, who allowed seven runs (three earned) against the Cubs on his last outing. Prior to that game, Peralta had dominated the Braves with a shutout on seven innings. However, the advanced numbers tell another story, as Peralta had a 4/4 K/BB ratio, with a 3.63 FIP and 5.24 xFIP! It's also important to mention that the Braves' offense was slumping at the time, so Peralta's start against them wasn't that impressive. In fact, Peralta has only faced subpar offensive teams on his last six outings, with an opponent wRC+ average of 88 (league average = 100). As the Nationals are currently hitting quite well, I expect them to make Peralta struggle tonight.
Stephen Strasburg will start for the Nationals tonight, the pitcher with the smallest run support in the majors this season with 2.7 runs per game. This is why Strasburg is 4-6 this season, as his numbers are very good with 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 90/27 K/BB in 93.1 innings). He struggled a bit on his first start after coming from the DL with four walks. but just one earned run allowed. However, after that start, Strasburg dominated both Colorado and Arizona. Now against the Brewers, I expect Strasburg to keep dominating, as he is yet to face Milwaukee on his career, but he will face a team full of right-handed batters and Strasburg is simply amazing against them: .199 BA and .245 wOBA allowed, 2.63 FIP and 2.66 xFIP! I expect Washington to pound Peralta, while Strasburg dominates, so I'll take Washington on the runline tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ S. Strasburg) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes
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