MLB - 929 St Louis Cardinals @ 930 Los Angeles Angels
(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs J. Blanton)
The Cardinals absolutely crushed Jerome Williams yesterday. This will be the third game of this series and for now, the first two games ended with one sided wins. The Angels will start Joe Blanton and he is coming from allowing two runs against the Astros in seven innings. His season record is poor (2-10 and a 5.07 ERA), but he has been great as of late with five runs allowed on his last 21 innings! In fact, Blanton is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league this season, as his advanced stats (4.30 FIP and 3.65 xFIP) are much better than his ERA and they are really good! His main problem is the 15.3% HR/FB rate, while his worst outing of his last seven games was at Boston, where he allowed three home runs. However, on a pitcher-friendly park, he is much better with a 0.90 HR/9 at home, while he has a 2.27 HR/9 on the road! This is why he has a 3.26 FIP at home and so, I believe he will have a good performance tonight against the Cardinals, especially as St Louis is just #23 in the league on ISO with .140, so they are unlikely to be able to punish Blanton with home runs.
Adam Wainwright will start for St Louis and he is coming from a complete game at Oakland, where he allowed just one run. After a poor 1st inning against the Cubs at home, he dominated Texas (one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings) and now Oakland (one earned run allowed in a complete game). Of course, his advanced stats were also great on these two outings with 1.95 and 1.71 FIP! Wainwright is a top pitcher in the league and I expect him to show that tonight by limiting one of the best offenses in the league. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 929/930 Under 8 (w/ A. Wainwright & J. Blanton) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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