Wednesday, July 10, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/09: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 979 Los Angeles Angels @ 980 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Blanton vs T. Wood)

I'll be fading Travis Wood tonight. Winds will be blowing out to center field at 5-10mph and with the humidity at 70-80%'s, the ball will be flying tonight, something that will benefit the offenses. Wood has been pitching well, but there is a considerable gap between his 2.69 ERA and his advanced numbers: 3.52 FIP + 4.38 xFIP! This is due to his incredibly low HR/FB rate of just 5.7%! This is tremendous as Wood is an extreme flyball pitcher (46% FB%) and so, he had a lot of luck to have pitched at Oakland and at Seattle on his last two outings: pitcher-friendly parks, where he had 8 flyballs at Oakland and 11 flyballs at Seattle! Today on a hitter-friendly park like the Wrigley Field and with the weather helping the batters, I expect the red hot Angels to finally expose Wood tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the LA Angels to go Over on their team total tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

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