(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs T. Gorzelanny)
The Mets will start Jeremy Hefner today, who has been great as of late with 1-1-1-2-1-1 earned runs allowed on his last six starts! He cruised against the Dbacks last Tuesday, while having a nice 6/2 K/BB ratio as well. Hefner will have a tough challenge today at Milwaukee, but Hefner seems ready for it. He is allowing just .207 BA, .251 wOBA, 3.24 FIP and 3.37 xFIP versus RH batters this season and the Brewers with a lineup full of righties don't seem to have in Hefner a nice matchup for them. Therefore, I believe the red hot Hefner will continue to dominate today.
Due to Wily Peralta's injury, Tom Gorzelanny will start for the Brewers today. He has been off the bullpen this season and his last appearance was last Thursday, where he pitched for 1.2 innings at Washington. His only start of the season was almost one month ago against Philadelphia and his advanced numbers weren't great on that outing: 4.82 FIP and 3.69 xFIP! I believe the Mets will have a clear SP edge today and even though the Brewers' offense is indeed better than the Mets, I believe the NY team has great value today, as Hefner is likely to dominate the Brewers, while the Mets' lineup will eventually have some opportunities against the unprepared Gorzelanny today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Mets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Hefner) @ +118 / 2.18 on Betonline
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