MLB - 905 Cincinnati Reds @ 906 Milwaukee Brewers
(Starting Pitchers: H. Bailey vs K. Lohse)
Cincinnati will start Homer Bailey tonight, who is coming from a no-hitter against San Francisco. He dominated the Giants without problems and he had a complete game with just 109 pitches! Over his last six outings, Bailey's worst start was exactly against the Brewers, where he allowed six earned runs in seven innings. However, he was on a tough spot at the time, as he had thrown 120 pitches on the previous outing and had just 4 days of rest. It's also important to notice that even though Bailey had a 7.71 ERA in that game, his advanced numbers were much better with 4.21 FIP and 3.16 xFIP! Bailey faced four hot offenses on these six games and he was great. His numbers versus RH batters are simply amazing: .183 BA, .219 wOBA, 1.94 FIP and 2.62 xFIP, so he should be able to get revenge over Milwaukee's lineup that is fully of right handed batters.
Kyle Lohse is starting for the Brewers and he allowed just one run on his last outing against Washington in eight innings. Lohse hasn't allowed more than three earned runs on each of his last seven starts, something that has lowered his ERA to 3.43. He had a great month of June with 3.73 FIP and 3.87 xFIP, with one of these good starts being at Cincinnati. Looking at these two in-form pitchers and with both offenses struggling over the past two weeks, I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Under 8 (w/ H. Bailey & K. Lohse) @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline
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