Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts

Thursday, August 29, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/28: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 953 Miami Marlins @ 954 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs S. Strasburg)
Washington will start Stephen Strasburg tonight, who is coming from a good start at Chicago against the Cubs, where he allowed two earned runs. He has been at a good level on the second half of the season with a 3.02 ERA, 3.14 FIP and 2.57 xFIP, with a phenomenal 29.1% K% and 5.5% BB%! This is a revenge game for Strasburg, who was surprisingly crushed at Miami last month, so I expect him to get revenge over Miami's terrible offense that hit below .160 BA on their last four games!

Henderson Alvarez will start for the Marlins in here and he has been slumping lately due to some bad control, with seven walks on his last three outings. Washington's offense has comeback to life recently and they are now #4 in the league over the past week, #7 over the last two weeks and #5 over the last month! They are hitting .282 BA on the last 14 days and so, I expect them to pound the struggling Alvarez. With Washington's clear SP and offense edges tonight, I expect them to pick up an easy win and so, I'll be taking them on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ S. Strasburg) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Saturday, August 24, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/23: Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals

MLB - 927 Washington Nationals @ 928 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: G. Gonzalez vs B. Chen)

Washington is one of the worst teams on hitting against LH pitchers (#26), but they are hitting much better lately, as they were #30 not so long ago! They scored four runs against Travis Wood last night, they hit .389 BA against Chris Rusin, .283 BA against Matt Minor, .243 BA against Alex Wood and .290 BA against Madison Bumgarner! They will face another LH pitcher in Bruce Chen tonight, who allowed six earned runs in 5.1 innings against Detroit last Sunday. He is a flyball pitcher with fastballs at 80's mph and considering the fact that Washington is #3 in the league against LH pitchers over the last 14 days, I believe Chen will struggle tonight.

Gio Gonzalez will start for the Nationals, who allowed two runs in seven innings against Atlanta last Sunday. After a disastrous start at Detroit, where he allowed ten earned runs in 3.1 innings, he had three straight good starts in a good bounce back. Now against the struggling Royals' offense who is hitting just .200 BA against LH pitchers on their last 10 games, I expect Gonzalez to dominate them tonight. Washington is a clear SP and offense edge tonight, so I'll be taking the Nationals in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927 Washington Nationals ML (w/ G. Gonzalez) @ -101 / 1.99 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/19: Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 907 Washington Nationals @ 908 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmermann vs J. Samardzija)

Washington lost yesterday against Atlanta, in a game where they scored just one run, while leaving 26 batters on base. They'll start Jordan Zimmermann tonight, who is coming from an outing against the Giants last Wednesday, where he allowed one run in seven innings. He bounced back well after a weird start against Atlanta. Even though his spot isn't great for tonight, with 112 pitches thrown against San Francisco and with just 4 days of rest between games, the Cubs are hitting just .201 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers, so Zimmermann should be fine for tonight.

Jeff Samardzija will start for the Cubs in here and he is coming from four earned runs allowed in six innings Tuesday against Cincinnati. His issues with walking batters continue with 11.3% BB% in July and August, something that prevents him from going deep in the game. His fastball speed is also decreasing and Washington has already pounded him this season with five earned runs in five innings. Therefore, I see a clear SP edge for the Nationals tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Washington Nationals ML (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

Thursday, August 15, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/14: San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs J. Zimmermann)

San Francisco will start Tim Lincecum tonight and he is currently on a good moment. His last outing was against Milwaukee and he was super sharp with no runs allowed in eight innings, while having a 8/1 K/BB! Besides a poor outing against the Reds, where he was on a letdown spot, after a no-hitter, Lincecum has been excellent as of late, even with a good command! His change up is working again and I expect him to have another good outing tonight against the Nationals.

Washington will start Jordan Zimmermann tonight and he is struggling during this second half of the season, after a great first half. There are some reports conflicts between the coach and Zimmermann about some neck stiffness, but the truth is that Zimmermann is struggling right now with high P/IP ratios that are the consequence of 2, 4, 3 and 2 walked batters on his last four starts. The Nationals seem to be living their worst moment of the season so far and with Lincecum pitching better than Zimmernmann right now, I believe we are a great opportunity to take the Giants as underdogs tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Lincecum) @ +136 / 2.36 on 5Dimes

Sunday, August 11, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/10: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lee vs T. Jordan)

Cliff Lee is coming from a start against the red hot Braves, where he allowed three earned runs in five innings. Even though he had a 5.40 ERA in that outing, his 1.05 FIP and 2.15 xFIP show that he played well. Lee is pitching well and tonight against a team that is #29 in the league versus LH pitchers, he should dominate. Taylor Jordan will start for the Nationals and he has been struggling against LH batters with .294 BA, .329 wOBA, 4.43 FIP and 4.37 xFIP this season. Jordan has been pitching well, but he has been facing teams with lineups full of RH batters. Things will be much tougher for him against Philadelphia's lefties: 

1. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
2. Michael Young (R) 1B
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Domonic Brown (L) LF
5. Darin Ruf (R) RF
6. Cody Asche (L) 3B
7. Carlos Ruiz (R) C
8. Michael Martinez (S) CF
9. Cliff Lee (L)

With Lee dominating and with Jordan struggling with Philadelphia's LH batters, I believe the Phillies will pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Lee) @ -114 / 1.88 on Betonline

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/30: Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers

MLB - 927 Washington Nationals @ 928 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg vs A. Sanchez)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This is a game between two good SP's, but Anibal Sanchez hasn't been very sharp since he returned from the DL, with his FIP being higher than his ERA on his last four starts, where he faced struggling offenses like Kansas City and the White Sox. Washington is coming from a nice series against the Mets, where they regained some hitting form: Wilson Ramos is back at 100%, Bryce Harper looked good as well, while Denard Span also hit some homeruns. On the other side, the Nationals will start Stephen Strasburg, who had a disaster game right before the All Star break at Miami, but then he bounced back very well with dominating outings against the Dodgers and Pittsburgh, with a combined of 18/1 K/BB! This will be his first start against Detroit, while Sanchez is a well-known opponent of the Nationals, as he used to play for Florida/Miami. I believe Washington has a great chance for the upset tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 927 Washington Nationals ML (w/ S. Strasburg) @ +122 / 2.22 on Bovada

Sunday, July 21, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/20: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 905 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 906 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Greinke vs G. Gonzalez)

Washington lost last night's game because of their lack of efficiency, as they went 1-9 on RISP against Ricky Nolasco yesterday. I believe that the Nationals are being underrated in tonight's game, as the pitching duel is very favorable to them. Zack Greinke will start for the Dodgers in here and he is being very inconsistent this season, while being really subpar on the road with a 5.03 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 4.45 xFIP! However, the truth is that Greinke had two super outings on his last two games with no runs allowed in seven innings at Arizona and in a complete game against Colorado. These were definitely good performances, but let's not forget that both Arizona and Colorado are currently #28 and #30 in offense over the past 14 games! Therefore, I believe the Nationals will eventually put Greinke in some trouble tonight.

On the other hand, Gio Gonzalez has been very solid lately. He is allowing just .205 BA this season and so, it's very hard to create big damage against him, even though his command lets him down at times. His worst starts of the season were connected to a high number of walks, but even though the Dodgers are hitting well right now, the truth is that they don't have a patient lineup with a 7.5% BB% (#22) over the last 14 games and 5.9% BB% (#23) over the last 7 games! Therefore, Gio Gonzalez has in the Dodgers a great matchup and so, he should dominate tonight. I expect a bounce back game for the Nationals in here, with the solid pitching of Gio Gonzalez leading the way. Therefore, I'll be taking Washington tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 Washington Nationals ML (w/ G. Gonzalez) @ -132 / 1.76 on Bookmaker

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/09: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 951 Washington Nationals @ 952 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: T. Jordan vs C. Hamels)

Washington looked good against San Diego, but then they faced a LH pitcher last night and they showed why they are #29 in the league versus LH pitchers by being terrible against John Lannan. To make things worse for them, Washington will face Cole Hamels tonight, another LH pitcher, but much better than Lannan. Hamels is coming from a nice win at Pittsburgh, in an outing where he absolutely dominated with a 0.78 FIP and 1.59 xFIP! Hamels seems to be playing at ace level again and so, he shouldn't have problems tonight in dominating the Nationals who are just being terrible versus LH pitchers this season. He had no luck on a previous outing this season against Washington (4.26 ERA, but 1.65 FIP + 2.54 xFIP), so I believe things will be different tonight.

On the other hand, Washington will start Taylor Jordan, who will have his third start for the Nationals. He pitched at NY against the Mets and at home against the Brewers, in two outings where he limited the damage by allowing just two and one earned runs. However, his command wasn't impressive (3/0 and 1/2 K/BB) and Philadelphia's offense has been playing well for a while now, with their lineup full of LH batters helping the team hitting .309 BA on their last 10 games versus RH pitchers! I believe the Phillies will have in here an edge in both SP and offense, therefore I'll be taking Philadelphia tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 952 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Hamels) @ -138 / 1.72 on Betonline

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/08: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 901 Washington Nationals @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Haren vs J. Lannan)

Both teams are coming to this game with some momentum. Philadelphia is coming back to back series wins against two top teams like Pittsburgh and Atlanta, while Washington took advantage of San Diego's poor form to sweep them with three good offensive games, where the Nationals hit .294, .375 and .314 BA! Washington is starting Dan Haren tonight, who is returning from a shoulder injury. Prior to this injury, Haren was already struggling this season with a 4-9 record, a 6.15 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. It's weird that Haren didn't make a single rehab start and that's not a good sign about his health. Even when Haren was healthy earlier on the season, he was allowing .302 BA, with high fly ball rates combined with a high HR/FB rate of 15.8%. something that turns him into an easy target when he faces a hot offensive team like the Phillies right now. Philadelphia is #7 in the league on wRC+ over the past 14 days and they have already pounded Haren twice earlier on the season. Things shouldn't be a lot different tonight.

On the other hand, Philadelphia is starting John Lannan tonight, who allowed four runs in five innings against Pittsburgh last Wednesday. This was the fourth time that Lannan couldn't make it past the fifth innings in seven starts this season and the fourth time on his last five outings! Lannan's last three starts were very shaky with a poor control of 5/3, 2/1 and 3/3 K/BB ratios. Prior to that, he had his first start after rehab against Washington and he pitched well with two earned runs allowed in five innings, but those Nationals were hitting much worse than they are right now. Washington is now hitting quite well and so, I expect them to also pound Lannan tonight. With both offenses making the opposing SP's struggling, I expect this game to turn into a high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901/902 Over 9  (w/ D. Haren & J. Lannan) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker

Saturday, July 6, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/05: San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 955 San Diego Padres @ 956 Washington Nationals 

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cashner vs G. Gonzalez)

Washington had back to back poor offensive games against Milwaukee just to explode yesterday against Donovan Hand with eight runs scored on .234 BA! On the other side, San Diego has lost all its momentum by losing their last six games. The Padres were managing to stay competitive due to an underrated offense, but since the hitting has gone awol, they have been struggling. Over the last six games, the Padres were only able to hit above .200 BA twice, so there are no miracles... 

San Diego will face Gio Gonzalez tonight, who is coming from a mega start at NY against the Mets with no runs allowed on seven innings, while having a 7/2 K/BB ratio! This was his sixth consecutive quality start, where he averaged 1.78 ERA, 0.967 WHIP and a 44/14 K/BB ratio over 40.1 innings! Gio struggled with his command early on the season, but he is currently pitching at CY Young level! Just take a look at the difference on K% and BB% on the first three months of the season:

April: 26.1% K% + 13.0% BB
May: 17.5% K% + 8.8% BB
June: 28.0% K% + 8.9% BB

Gonzalez will face the #27 ranked offense over the last 14 days tonight and therefore, I expect him to dominate the Padres tonight.

Andrew Cashner will start for the Padres and he is coming from five consecutive quality starts in June, where he averaged 2.78 ERA, 1.093 WHIP and 20/6 K/BB over 35.2 innings. Cashner has been pitching well, but he has been lacking a good strikeout punch. He faced Washington on May 19 and he pitched well with three runs allowed in 6.2 innings. However, the Nationals' offense was struggling massively at the time (#28 in May with .650 OPS), while they are now #8 in the league over the last seven days! I expect the Nationals to make a bit of damage on Cashner tonight, something that will be enough for them to pick up an easy win in here, as Gio should dominate San Diego with ease tonight on the other hand.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Washington Nationals RL -1 (w/ G. Gonzalez) @ -109 / 1.92 on 5Dimes

Thursday, July 4, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/03: Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 951 Milwaukee Brewers @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs R. Detwiler)

Washington gave no run support once again to Stephen Strasburg yesterday, who couldn't win another game even though he allowed no runs and just three hits on seven innings last night. Then, Milwaukee crushed the Nationals' bullpen and eventually won the game and got revenge for their blowout loss on the first game of the series two nights ago. Ross Detwiler will start for Washington tonight and he has been struggling with back stiffness lately. He struggled in his four starts since returning from the DL in early June and he needed 98 pitches to play five innings against the Mets. Detwiler's main problem is while facing RH batters, as he is allowing .323 BA and .379 wOBA to them, while having a 4.28 FIP and 4.66 xFIP. The Brewers' lineup is full of righties, so they will be a tough matchup for Detwiler tonight.

Kyle Lohse will start for the Brewers and he played just 1.2 innings on his last start, so he is playing tonight with just 3 days of rest between outings. Prior to that, Lohse had four quality outings in a row and he ended June with a nice 3.73 FIP and 3.85 xFIP. It's also true that Lohse had a favorable schedule, with the Pirates being the only tough opponent, however we can't say that the Nationals are a tough opponent as well. Therefore, I expect Lohse to have another positive start in here. Considering how I expect Detwiler to struggle in here and Lohse to have a quality outing, I believe the Brewers will be very competitive tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Milwaukee in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 Milwaukee Brewers RL +1 (w/ K. Lohse) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/02: Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 903 Milwaukee Brewers @ 904 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: W. Peralta vs S. Strasburg)

Washington's offense has finally woken up. They are #26 for the season on wRC+ with 86, #12 over the last 14 days and #6 over the last week! They will face Wily Peralta, who allowed seven runs (three earned) against the Cubs on his last outing. Prior to that game, Peralta had dominated the Braves with a shutout on seven innings. However, the advanced numbers tell another story, as Peralta had a 4/4 K/BB ratio, with a 3.63 FIP and 5.24 xFIP! It's also important to mention that the Braves' offense was slumping at the time, so Peralta's start against them wasn't that impressive. In fact, Peralta has only faced subpar offensive teams on his last six outings, with an opponent wRC+ average of 88 (league average = 100). As the Nationals are currently hitting quite well, I expect them to make Peralta struggle tonight.

Stephen Strasburg will start for the Nationals tonight, the pitcher with the smallest run support in the majors this season with 2.7 runs per game. This is why Strasburg is 4-6 this season, as his numbers are very good with 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 90/27 K/BB in 93.1 innings). He struggled a bit on his first start after coming from the DL with four walks. but just one earned run allowed. However, after that start, Strasburg dominated both Colorado and Arizona. Now against the Brewers, I expect Strasburg to keep dominating, as he is yet to face Milwaukee on his career, but he will face a team full of right-handed batters and Strasburg is simply amazing against them: .199 BA and .245 wOBA allowed, 2.63 FIP and 2.66 xFIP! I expect Washington to pound Peralta, while Strasburg dominates, so I'll take Washington on the runline tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ S. Strasburg) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/01: Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 951 Milwaukee Brewers @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs J. Zimmermann)

Milwaukee will start Yovani Gallardo tonight, who allowed five runs (three earned) in four innings against the Cubs. This was a clear regression after Gallardo hadn't allowed a single earned run in three games in a row. However, he faced Houston, Cincinnati and Miami, three teams either outright poor on offense and/or currently struggling at the time. He will now face the Nationals, a team that is starting to hit a bit better lately with .271 BA versus RH pitchers on their last 10 games. Having in account Washington's improved offense lately, I expect them to put Gallardo in some trouble tonight.

Washington will start Jordan Zimmermann tonight and he is coming from an outing where he allowed two earned runs against Arizona. Zimmermann struggled at Cleveland and at Baltimore, two tough parks, but he has been dominating against NL teams this season. He is especially good versus RH batters with just .176 BA and .224 wOBA allowed, 3.28 FIP and 3.50 xFIP. Milwaukee is currently struggling and their lineup is full of RH batters, so they will heavily struggle tonight against the dominant Zimmermann. I see Washington completely dominating the Brewers tonight due to a clear SP edge and so, I'll be taking the Nationals in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 952 Washington Nationals RL -1 (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ -136 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

Thursday, June 27, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/26: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 901 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 902 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs J. Zimmermann)

Washington will have a huge mismatch on SP favoring them in here. Wade Miley may have started the season well, but he has been struggling lately, while being homerun prone, with 1, 2, 1, 0 and 3 homeruns allowed on his last five starts. His strikeout numbers also don't impress me and he is really struggling right now. I believe he is on a clear fade spot in here, as he is coming for tonight's game with just 4 days of rest and with 105 pitches thrown on his last start. The last two times he threw +100 pitchers on a game, he allowed five runs against Atlanta and three runs against St Louis on the following outings.

On the other hand, Washington is starting Jordan Zimmermann on 5 days rest. He is coming from a great bounce back outing against Colorado, as he allowed just one run to the Rockies (9/1 K/BB ratio), after struggling at Cleveland. He had three good starts against Arizona in 2011 and with Miley getting pounded today, I believe Zimmermann will also do a good job in here, allowing the Nationals to pick up an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Washington Nationals RL -1 (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ -107 / 1.94 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

MLB Free Premium Play 05/28: Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

  
Baltimore  at Washington 
MLB - 957 Baltimore Orioles @ 958 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs N. Adams)


Kevin Gausman didn't have a great MLB debut at Toronto, where I faded him and the Orioles with success. However, he is a top prospect and I expect him to pitch much better tonight, as he was comprehensively nervous on his debut, especially while facing a Blue Jays' lineup that has been simply on fire lately by being #3 in the league with a .862 OPS over the last 14 days. I expect things to be different today. Gausman will have his first MLB experience already on his legs, besides the fact that Washington's offense is struggling without Bryce Harper with just .631 OPS (#28) on the last 14 days.

On the other side, I expect Nathan Karns to struggle on his MLB debut just like Gausman struggles against Toronto. He is coming directly from AA to the MLB and to make things worst, Baltimore's offense is red hot right now! If Toronto is #3 on the league over the last two weeks, Baltimore is #2 with .891 OPS! Besides that, the Orioles are also #2 on the league against RH pitchers with .811 OPS! Therefore, I expect Baltimore to pound Karns and get a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ K. Gausman) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

Saturday, May 4, 2013

MLB Premium Play 05/03: Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 905 Washington Nationals @ 906 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: R. Detwiler vs A. Burnett)

Ross Detwiler is starting for the Nationals tonight and he has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. His main problem has been the lack of run support, as Washington is hitting quite poorly this season. They have a lot of injury problems, including Bryce Harper who is currently dealing with a minor injury. Detwiler is a contact pitcher, but who hasn't been having a nice command lately, with 3/1 and 2/2 K/BB ratio. He hasn't allowed a lot of runs, but with an average-at-best command and allowing 11 and 8 hits, it's likely that he will regress quite soon. The Pirates's offense might be #27 in the league in hitting against LH pitchers this season, but they have improved into .277 BA over their last 10 games! Therefore, I expect Pittsburgh to put Detwiler in some damage tonight.

On the other side, A.J. Burnett has been amazing this season. He ended April with a NL-high 48 strikeouts and he has been great on his last three starts. His season stats of 2.83 ERA, 2.56 FIP and 2.89 xFIP make no mistake. He is being indeed one of most dominant pitchers of the league this season. Washington has been hitting quite poorly this season due to some injuries and they are the 5th worst team in terms of K% allowed over the last week with 24.8%! This turns them into a great matchup for Burnett, who should have another very dominant performance. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Pittsburgh and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ A. Burnett) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

Monday, April 29, 2013

MLB Premium Play 04/28: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals


MLB - 955 Cincinnati Reds @ 956 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Cingrani vs R. Detwiler)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The totals line of 7 runs is just too short and it is being based exclusively on the current ERA numbers of these two pitchers: Cingrani 2.25 ERA and Detwiler 1.38 ERA. However, I believe both SP will regress big time today. Cingrani had back to back quality starts on his debut on the majors. Around 70% of his pitches were fastballs, but with him being a deceptive guy, he fooled the opposing teams with 8 and 9 strikeouts. The problem for him is that everytime teams were able to get to him, he allowed homeruns. He was also lucky that he faced Miami and the Cubs on these two starts, two teams that are in the bottom 10 in the league in hitting against LH pitchers this season. Now against Washington, the Nationals's power lineup should be able to do some damage on him today.

On the other side, we have Ross Detwiler, who has been his team's best SP on this early season. His first outing of the season was at Cincinnati, where he didn't allow a single run. However, he had a 4.16 FIP and 5.77 xFIP in that start, something that shows that he was lucky in that outing, where he had just 1 strikeout! I doubt he will be as lucky today, as Cincinnati is #2 in the league in hitting against LH pitchers with a great .809 OPS! Therefore, I expect a high scoring game today and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 7 (w/ T. Cingrani & R. Detwiler) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

MLB Premium Play 04/23: St Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals


MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs R. Detwiler)

Adam Wainwright had his third win of the season at Philadelphia last Thursday, where he allowed nine hits, while striking out four batters. After a shaky first outing of the season, Wainwright has been great on their following three outings, with just 5 runs allowed and a 22/0 K/BB ratio on 23 innings! His numbers say it all: 2.48 ERA, 1.09 ERA and 1.96 xFIP! 

On the other hand, Ross Detwiler has been good on this early season as well, but helped with some luck, as he had an extremely low .250 BABIP! He may have a 0.90 ERA, but his advanced stats are telling another story with 3.32 FIP and 3.93 xFIP! Detwilder is contact pitcher and this Cardinals's lineup is too tough for him to get away with another nice outing tonight, especially when St Louis's roster is hitting so well against him: .320 BA and .913 OPS! Therefore, I expect Wainwright to dominate tonight, while Detwiler has some problems, so I'll be taking the Cardinals tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -118 / 1.85 on Bovada