MLB - 957 San Diego Padres @ 958 Miami Marlins
(Starting Pitchers: J. Marquis vs J. Fernandez)
San Diego is starting Jason Marquis tonight, who had his third loss of the season last Tuesday, where he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings against the Phillies. Marquis walked five batters and allowed a three-run home run to Dominic Brown in the third inning. Marquis has a decent 3.99 ERA, but then his advanced stats are simply catastrophic: 20.8% HR/FB% and 5.37 FIP + 4.33 xFIP in June! His command is really poor with a 4/5 K/BB ratio against Philadelphia on his last start. Marquis was benefited for playing six games in a row in friendly parks, but now at Miami against a team that has regained a lot of confidence lately, I expect Marquis's problems to get heavily exposed tonight.
On the other hand, Miami is starting Jose Fernandez, who allowed one run in five innings against Minnesota on his last outing. Fernandez has been having a great rookie season and even though he struggles at times, he is showing the right composure to limit the damage! He is yet to face the Padres and so, he should use the surprise factor to dominate San Diego that is a much worse hitting team versus RH pitchers. I believe Miami will have a tremendous SP edge in here, while the Padres' offense is also struggling, so I rate both offenses at a similar level right now. This gives us great value on the Marlins in here and so, I'll take them tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Miami Marlins ML (w/ J. Fernandez) @ -140 / 1.71 on Betonline
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