MLB Premium Play 08/28: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 953 Miami Marlins @ 954 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs S. Strasburg)
Washington will start Stephen Strasburg tonight, who is coming from a good start at Chicago against the Cubs, where he allowed two earned runs. He has been at a good level on the second half of the season with a 3.02 ERA, 3.14 FIP and 2.57 xFIP, with a phenomenal 29.1% K% and 5.5% BB%! This is a revenge game for Strasburg, who was surprisingly crushed at Miami last month, so I expect him to get revenge over Miami's terrible offense that hit below .160 BA on their last four games!

Henderson Alvarez will start for the Marlins in here and he has been slumping lately due to some bad control, with seven walks on his last three outings. Washington's offense has comeback to life recently and they are now #4 in the league over the past week, #7 over the last two weeks and #5 over the last month! They are hitting .282 BA on the last 14 days and so, I expect them to pound the struggling Alvarez. With Washington's clear SP and offense edges tonight, I expect them to pick up an easy win and so, I'll be taking them on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ S. Strasburg) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/25: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 903 Colorado Rockies @ 904 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. De La Rosa vs J. Turner)

Jacob Turner will start for Miami today and after a 0/6 K/BB ratio at Kansas City, he faced the Dodgers on his last outing and had a 0/5 K/BB ratio! His FIP of 6.04, 6.64 and 11.24 on his last three outings say it all: he is struggling a lot right now! Colorado has already faced Turner this season and he allowed two earned runs in six innings, but I expect the damage to be much bigger today. 

Colorado will start Jorge De La Rosa and he is coming from allowing three runs (two earned) in 6.1 innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. De La Rosa has been very consistent and he has been able to resist to some tough opposition like facing Pittsburgh twice (#4 vs LHP) or San Diego (#5 vs LHP). He has a 3.22 ERA and 3.62 FIP in August, so I believe he will have another decent outing today against the Marlins' poor offense. I see Colorado having a clear SP and offense edges today, so I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. De La Rosa) @ -107 / 1.93 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/23: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 903 Colorado Rockies @ 904 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Chacin vs T. Koehler)

Colorado is coming from a 1-3 series at Philadelphia, where they lost all three games by one run. They'll try to bounce back tonight with Jhoulys Chacin, who is coming from a series of solid starts. Baltimore was no easy matchup for him as they have great LH batters (Chacin's main problem: .270 BA + .310 wOBA + 3.58 FIP + 4.28 xFIP against them), while Chacin is good against RH batters with .234 BA, .276 wOBA, 2.81 FIP and 3.55 xFIP! Having in account that Miami's lineup is full of RH hitters and they are the worst team in the league in hitting against RH pitchers, this is an excellent matchup for Chacin tonight.

Tom Koehler will start for the Marlins and he has been struggling with a horrible P/IP ratio, always higher than 17.5 on his last five starts. His command isn't good at all, with 4/4 and 1/2 on his last two starts. Colorado's offense has been decent on this road trip by hitting .273 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers, while his best start of Koehler's season was at Colorado with just one earned run allowed in seven innings. This won't happen against tonight, especially with Koehler struggling in August with 4.54 FIP and 4.80 xFIP, besides having a poor 12.1% BB%. I believe Colorado will have both SP and offense edges in here, so I'll take them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Chacin) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/14: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals

MLB - 975 Miami Marlins @ 976 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Turner vs E. Santana)

Erwin Santana had a tough task against Boston, that exposed his main issue: the fact that he is HR prone. Thanks to that, he allowed six earned runs with one home run in just 3.2 innings. He was coming from four excellent outings in a row, so I expect him to bounce back today. He faced the #1 team on hitting versus RH pitchers this season and now he will face the dead last Miami, who is currently playing without their power hitter Giancarlo Stanton.

Jacob Turner allowed four earned runs in five innings at Atlanta, while showing a poor control once again with 5/3 K/BB. This has been the rule, as he has just a 2.00 K/BB and just 6.56 K/9! Over his last five games, his velocity has been down and he is posting a 4.13 ERA and a 1.8 K/BB ratio! He is struggling more and more lately and I expect the Royals to bounce back from last night's fiasco and score some runs today. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Kansas City in here and so, I'll be taking them on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 976 Kansas City Royals RL -1.5 (w/ E. Santana) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/10: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

MLB - 953 Miami Marlins @ 954 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: N. Eovaldi vs A. Wood)

Miami will start Nate Eovaldi tonight, who is coming from one run allowed in seven innings against Cleveland last Sunday. He is coming from a nice outing indeed, but his command isn't nothing special, as in fact he has a 10.5% BB% and he is unable to strikeout opponents. He hasn't been pitching badly lately, but Atlanta's lineup is so fired up right now that eventually the Braves will have a chance of a big inning tonight. Atlanta will start Alex Wood, who is coming from one earned run allowed in six innings against Philadelphia last Sunday. Wood's last two starts were excellent, just like he was when he was coming off the bullpen earlier in the season. Miami is hitting .210 BA against LH pitchers on their last 10 games, so I believe Wood will have no problems in dominating them. This should be an easy win for Atlanta, so I'll take them in the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (w/ A. Wood) @ +100 / 2.00 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/07: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 905 Miami Marlins @ 906 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs C. Morton)

Tom Koehler will start for the Marlins tonight and he shut out the Mets for six innings last Thursday, despite walking five batters. He got away with a 5/5 K/BB ratio due to the poor performance of the Mets' lineup, who left 18 players on base during the game! Prior to that game, Koehler had been pounded at home by the Pirates, with five earned runs allowed in five innings. Koehler struggles against RH batters with .262 BA and .320 wOBA allowed and so, I really expect him to struggle once again against Pittsburgh tonight.

The Pirates will start Charlie Morton and he won the duel against Koehler on that start in Miami, where he allowed three earned runs in five innings, while having a great 6/0 K/BB ratio! On his following outing, he got pounded by the fired up Cardinals, with five earned runs allowed in six innings, but he had another nice 5/1 K/BB ratio in that outing! This is why that he had a 2.87 FIP and 3.33 xFIP in that game, even though he had a 7.50 ERA! Morton will come from facing a very good hitting team like St Louis to a much weaker lineup like Miami's, who is dead last in hitting against RH pitchers (.274 wOBA) and also on grounders (.189 wOBA)! 

I believe Pittsburgh will have clear SP & offensive edges for tonight's game and so, I'll be taking in the runline tonight for an easy win.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 Pittsburgh Pirates RL -1.5 (w/ C. Morton) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/04: Cleveland Indians @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 971 Cleveland Indians @ 972 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: S. Kazmir vs N. Eovaldi)

Nate Eovaldi will start for Miami today and he is coming from allowing two runs in six innings against the Mets in Tuesday, even though he walked five batters! He has a 3.47 ERA, but his advanced numbers are just a disaster with a 5.95 K/9, 1.41 K/BB, but he has been saving himself from disaster due to a 7.8% HR/FB! But with a K/BB ratio of 4/5, 4/2, 5/2 and 5/4 on his last four outings, he won't be able to save himself from disaster for much longer. Cleveland is a top team in BB% with 9.1% (#5), so they will be patient and eventually pound Eovaldi with their power hitting. 

The Indians will start Scott Kazmir today, who allowed four runs in five innings against the White Sox last Tuesday. Kazmir is being very consistent this season, but his last start wasn't good due to a terrible .450 BABIP. He had a 7.20 ERA on that outing, but as his poor game was due to a very high BABIP, his advanced numbers were good with 1.84 FIP and 3.79 xFIP! Kazmir ended July with a 2.75 ERA, 2.82 FIP and 3.50 xFIP and I believe he will dominate the Marlins today. Cleveland has a huge SP and offense edges for today's game, so I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ S. Kazmir) @ -124 / 1.81 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/03: Cleveland Indians @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 923 Cleveland Indians @ 924 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: Z. McAllister vs J. Turner)

Miami will start Jacob Turner tonight, who is coming from three runs allowed in 6.1 innings against the Mets last Monday. Turner may have a 2.49 ERA, but his advanced numbers are much worse with a 4.13 xFIP and 4.36 SIERA mostly thanks to a ridiculous 4.5 HR/FB%! A regression will be inevitable soon, as Turner won't be able to have such low HR/FB% for a long time. And this regression may start tonight against the Indians, who are #6 on ISO (power) with .158!

On the other side, Zach McAllister will start for the Indians tonight and he is coming from allowing two runs against the White Sox last Monday over seven innings. He has already played in two games since coming back from the DL and he allowed three earned runs against the red hot Mariners at Seattle (2.85 FIP) and then, he dominated the White Sox. He will now face a Marlins' lineup that is dead last in the league on hitting versus RH pitchers, so I believe McAllister will have another good outing tonight. Therefore, I expect Cleveland to bounce back tonight with a comfortable win and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ Z. McAllister) @ -124 / 1.81 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/01: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 901 New York Mets @ 902 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: M. Harvey vs T. Koehler)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901 New York Mets RL -1 (w/ M. Harvey) @ -139 / 1.72 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/26: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 903 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 904 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Locke vs H. Alvarez)

Miami will start Henderson Alvarez tonight, who is coming from allowing no runs against Milwaukee. He has been a groundball machine and he is yet to allow a homerun in the majors this season. On the other side, Pittsburgh will start Jeff Locke, who keeps showing his wild control on his outings, with 6/4, 4/3, 2/3, 4/2 and 3/3 K/BB on his last five games! However, it's important to note that he has been close to unhittable with a .191 BA! Besides some luck that Locke has been having, the truth is that the Pirates' great defense has been helping a lot as well. But he won't be lucky the whole season and he will eventually regress at one point. I believe Miami with Alvarez tonight should be able to keep things close in here and so, I don't see Pittsburgh getting a SP edge tonight. So, I'll be taking the Marlins tonight on the runline for the first five innings of the game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Miami Marlins RL +0.5 FIRST FIVE INNINGS @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/20: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

MLB - 907 Miami Marlins @ 908 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: N. Eovaldi vs Y. Gallardo)

Nate Eovaldi is probably the most overrated SP in the league right now, as even though he has a 2.93 ERA, he has a 4.01 FIP, 4.62 xFIP and 5.00 SIERA! His command has been horrible with 5/4, 3/3 and 0/3 K/BB on his last three starts! Milwaukee's offense might be horrible on the road, but the story is completely different at home! Therefore, I expect the Brewers to expose Eovaldi's struggles tonight and pound him. 

Yovani Gallardo will start for the Brewers tonight and he has been quite inconsistent as usual. He is coming from a nice last start at Arizona and with 8 days off to rest between starts, I believe that he has a good spot to look good tonight. Miami's offense is back into their regular (poor) level by being #26 in the league over their last 7 games, so I believe Gallardo will look decent tonight. With Gallardo out of trouble and with Eovaldi struggling, I believe Milwaukee will pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Milwaukee Brewers RL -1 (w/ Y. Gallardo) @ -119 / 1.84 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/05: Miami Marlins @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 959 Miami Marlins @ 960 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Turner vs J. Westbrook)

Miami is now 8-2 on their last 10 games! They are playing with a lot of confidence, while showing good pitching and offense! Miami's offense is #15 over the last 7 days and #14 over the last 14 days, something that contrasts a lot with their season stats, where they are dead last on offense! The Marlins' lineup will face Jake Westbrook tonight, who has been struggling a lot since coming back from the DL. In four starts, Westbrook allowed 6, 4, 0 and 3 earned runs, but worse than that is his command with a combined of 8/8 K/BB! The first of those starts was at Miami, where he allowed three runs in five innings, while having poor advanced numbers: 4.27 FIP and 4.55 xFIP! Westbrook isn't at his best at all right now and therefore, the "red hot" Marlins should be able to put him in trouble tonight.

On the other side, Jacob Turner will start for Miami and he is coming from a complete game against San Diego! His excellent groundball rate allows him to be able to go deep in the games without much trouble and his advanced numbers are confirming that he is really in great form right now with 2.93 FIP and 3.86 xFIP since he joined the Majors in May 31! His 0.22 HR/9 right now is simply amazing and I expect him to continue his nice run with a positive outing against the Cardinals tonight. I believe Miami will be underrated until the end of the season and when we have decent pitching from them like in tonight's game, I believe they should be able to remain competitive against almost everybody. Therefore, I'll be taking the Marlins tonight on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Miami Marlins RL +1.5 (w/ J. Turner) @ -140 / 1.71 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/01: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 957 San Diego Padres @ 958 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Marquis vs J. Fernandez)

San Diego is starting Jason Marquis tonight, who had his third loss of the season last Tuesday, where he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings against the Phillies. Marquis walked five batters and allowed a three-run home run to Dominic Brown in the third inning. Marquis has a decent 3.99 ERA, but then his advanced stats are simply catastrophic: 20.8% HR/FB% and 5.37 FIP + 4.33 xFIP in June! His command is really poor with a 4/5 K/BB ratio against Philadelphia on his last start. Marquis was benefited for playing six games in a row in friendly parks, but now at Miami against a team that has regained a lot of confidence lately, I expect Marquis's problems to get heavily exposed tonight.

On the other hand, Miami is starting Jose Fernandez, who allowed one run in five innings against Minnesota on his last outing. Fernandez has been having a great rookie season and even though he struggles at times, he is showing the right composure to limit the damage! He is yet to face the Padres and so, he should use the surprise factor to dominate San Diego that is a much worse hitting team versus RH pitchers. I believe Miami will have a tremendous SP edge in here, while the Padres' offense is also struggling, so I rate both offenses at a similar level right now. This gives us great value on the Marlins in here and so, I'll take them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Miami Marlins ML (w/ J. Fernandez) @ -140 / 1.71 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/30: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 901 San Diego Padres @ 902 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cashner vs N. Eovaldi)

Miami will start Nate Eovaldi today, who is coming from a nice outing against the Giants, where he allowed two runs on six innings. Eovaldi had two road starts against Arizona and San Francisco, where he allowed two runs on each game, so I believe he is currently pitching quite well. His fastball velocity this season is up over two miles per hour from last year (where he had an already impressive 94mph), so the improved Eovaldi should be able to dominate the shorthanded Padres today.

San Diego will start Andrew Cashner, who is coming from really nice outings, with 2.93, 1.71, 2.18 and 2.77 FIP on his last four starts. He has already faced the Marlins this season and dominated, but Miami is now hitting better than they were early on the season and they are confident right now due to a nice win yesterday. Both pitchers are currently playing well, but San Diego is currently playing shorthanded and Miami with some regained confidence yesterday plus the home factor should be able to have a great shot of winning this one as home underdogs.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Miami Marlins ML (w/ N. Eovaldi) @ +103 / 2.03 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Minnesota Twins @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 967 Minnesota Twins @ 968 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: K. Correia vs J. Fernandez)

This isn't a great spor for Miami, as after a West Coast road trip, they are now returning home to face the Twins. They will face Kevin Correia, who had three great starts lately, with a combined of 19/1 K/BB ratio, while allowing just two, one and three runs! Miami doesn't have a lot of power on its lineup, so this can be a good matchup for Correia tonight. On the other hand, Jose Fernandez will start for the Marlins. He is coming from back to back outings with more than 100 pitchers, something unusual for a pitcher. Fernandez won't have the surprise factor on his side tonight, as he has already faced the Twins this season, where he allowed four runs in five innings, while having a 2/2 K/BB ratio. Minnesota's lineup is red hot by hitting better than .300 BA in five of their last six games. With Correia pitching well, I see Minnesota having great value as underdogs in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ K. Correia) @ +109 / 2.09 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/16: St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Heat

MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lyons vs R. Nolasco)

Yesterday's game was a huge offensive explosion! If that was expected from the Cardinals, the Marlins were a pleasant surprise and they are starting to have some decent offense: .303 and .297 BA on their last two games against St Louis! The Cardinals will start Tyler Lyons, who after good back to back starts, has struggled on his last two outings by allowing four runs on each, while having an unimpressive 4/2 and 4/3 K/BB ratios! I don't trust Lyons and with the Marlins hitting better now, I expect Lyons to struggle today.

Miami will start Ryan Nolasco today and he is coming from a bad start against Milwaukee, where he allowed four runs and two hits, while having a 5/2 K/BB ratio. But overall speaking, Nolasco has been solid this season with a decent control and while going deep into his starts! His ERA is no fluke, as his 3.80 ERA is reinforced by a 3.64 FIP and 3.85 xFIP! He has been excellent against RH batters with .240 BA allowed and 3.04 FIP! St Louis won't start Yadier Molina and Matt Holiday today, so I believe the Marlins will be able to be very competitive today and so, I'll take them on the Runline today as underdogs.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Miami Marlins RL +1.5 (w/ R. Nolasco) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/15: St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs T. Koehler)

Miami took advantage of Jake Westbrook's struggles after coming from the DL to pick up a nice upset win yesterday, where Jose Fernandez made his first start. Things will be completely different today. The Cardinals will start Lance Lynn, who is coming from a Sunday Night Baseball game at Cincinnati, where he allowed four runs and five hits on six innings. Lynn has been pitching quite well for a while now. His FIP was around 2.60's on May and now on June as well, on a clear proof of how well he has been pitching, especially when he faces heavy RH lineups, as he has just a 1.70 FIP and 2.90 xFIP against RH batters! Miami is the worst team in the league vs RH pitchers with .608 OPS and their lineup for today's game has just 3 LH batters: Pierre .250 BA, Dietrich .223 BA and Dobbs .211 BA! All very unimpressive, so Lynn should absolutely dominate today.

The Marlins will start Tom Koehler, who hasn't been terrible, without allowing more than four runs per outing, but he is also far from being impressive. On his two starts at NY against the Mets and at Philadelphia, his command wasn't great and he allowed 1 and 2 homeruns. This is worrying as the Mets and the Phillies are just #27 and #20 versus RH pitchers respectively and Koehler still struggled. Now against the Cardinals, who are #7 in the league versus RH pitchers and coming from a loss yesterday, I expect the Cardinals to dominate today and so, I'll be taking them on the runline today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ L. Lynn) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/28: Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 965 Miami Marlins @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: K. Slowey vs J. Hellickson)

I believe Kevin Slowey will have a tough time tonight against the Rays. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with a 42.3% FB% vs 30.3% GB% and of course his worst starts of the season are the ones where he allowed homeruns like against Arizona or at LA against the Dodgers. Tampa Bay is #3 in the league on FB% with 38.6% and their offense has been improving as the season goes by and they are hitting .275 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers! Therefore, I expect Slowey to have a lot of problems tonight.

On the other hand, Jeremy Hellickson has been quite unlucky this season with a 5.37 ERA, but with a 4.64 FIP and 4.20 xFIP! Homeruns have been his biggest problem this season, but the truth is that Miami is dead last in the league on HR/FB rate with just 3.9%! Hellickson is coming from a start at Toronto, where he allowed just two earned runs in eight innings. If we consider how red hot the Blue Jays have been this season, this was definitely a great start for Hellickson! Now against one of the worst offenses in the league, I expect him to have another dominant outing tonight. 

Therefore, I expect Slowey to struggle and Hellickson to dominate, so I expect an easy win for Tampa Bay tonight. I'm taking them tonight on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes