Showing posts with label San Diego Padres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Diego Padres. Show all posts

Sunday, August 11, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/10: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 955 San Diego Padres @ 956 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: T. Ross vs T. Cingrani)

San Diego is really a machine when it comes to hit against LH pitchers: .314 BA versus LH pitchers on their last 10 games! They'll face Tony Cingrani tonight, who has been pitching well, but he has a 4.06 FIP and 3.79 xFIP against RH batters and he will face a lineup full of righties tonight:

1. Chris Denorfia (R) RF
2. Will Venable (L) CF
3. Chase Headley (S) 3B
4. Jesus Guzman (R) LF
5. Yonder Alonso (L) 1B
6. Jedd Gyorko (R) 2B
7. Logan Forsythe (R) SS
8. Nick Hundley (R) C
9. Tyson Ross (R) P

Tyron Ross will start for the Padres and he is coming from three starts in a row where he was great with 3.71, 1.67 and 2.55 FIP, while having a good command. He is a groundball pitcher, so I believe he will make the Reds struggle on their first game ever against him. I expect this game to be close, so I'll take San Diego on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Diego Padres RL +1.5 (w/ T. Ross) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/06: Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 979 Baltimore Orioles @ 980 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs E. Volquez)

Baltimore really needs to make a good run right now and they'll start Bud Norris tonight, who allowed just two earned runs in six innings against Houston on his first start for the Orioles, where he showed a good command with 8/2 K/BB! Norris's big problem this season has been the homeruns allowed and his struggles against LH batters with 5.24 FIP and 5.01 xFIP, while he has been great against RH batters with 2.43 FIP and 3.67 xFIP! As he will play at a pitcher-friendly park tonight, I don't believe homeruns will be an issue, while the Padres' lineup is just #23 against RH pitchers, while they are #4 versus LH pitchers. Therefore, this is a good spot for Norris to dominate.

On the other hand, Edinson Volquez will start for the Padres and he is coming from two earned runs allowed in 6.1 innings against Cincinnati last Tuesday. He was quite lucky on his first three starts after the All Star break with 3/5, 5/3 and 1/1 K/BB ratios in those starts and so, I expect him to struggle a lot tonight, as Baltimore have great LH batters and Volquez is allowing .292 BA, .364 wOBA, 4.19 FIP and 4.35 xFIP against LH batters this season! I believe Norris will have a good outing, while Volquez will heavily struggle on this poor matchup for him, so I expect the Orioles to pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ B. Norris) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/30: Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 913 Cincinnati Reds @ 914 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs E. Volquez)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Mat Latos will start for Cincinnati tonight and he is coming from a win against one of the hottest teams in the league right now: the Dodgers! Latos played well on his last six starts (only some problems against Pittsburgh) and this is impressive as he faced the Dodgers, Atlanta, Texas and Arizona during this span, with all games being on the road! His strikeout numbers were also quite impressive! On the other hand, Edinson Volquez has been quite the opposite, with a poor control and allowing 3, 3, 8 and 4 earned runs on his last four starts. Cincinnati is a patient offense (#4 in BB% with 9.0%), so they will make Volquez work tonight. I see Cincinnati having a huge SP edge tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here for an easy win in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 913 Cincinnati Reds RL-1 (w/ M. Latos) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/29: Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 959 Cincinnati Reds @ 960 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs S. O'Sullivan)

Cincinnati's offense was horrible this weekend with .086, .069 and .188 BA on their last three games! They'll start Mike Leake tonight, a SP that is currently on my fade alert list. I faded him on his last start at San Francisco, in a game where the Giants were only able to score one run against Leake, even though they had 12 hits and 2 walks! Leake may have a 2.79 ERA, but his 4.10 FIP shows that he is ready to regress at any point now. San Diego's offense is #7 in the league over the last 14 days, so they are in good form and they should be able to cause problems to Leake tonight.

Sean O'Sullivan allowed just three runs (two earned) over 6.1 innings against the Brewers last Wednesday. He allowed two earned runs in each of his two starts and he has been decent until now. Also with the Reds' lineup slumping, O'Sullivan should be able to have another decent outing today. I believe San Diego is currently in better form than Cincinnati, so I expect them to make this game competitive. So, I'll be taking the Padres tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 960 San Diego Padres RL +1 (w/ S. O'Sullivan) @ +100 / 2.00 on 5Dimes

Friday, July 12, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/11: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 959 San Francisco Giants @ 960 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: M. Bumgarner vs J. Marquis)

Both teams are currently struggling with San Francisco being 2-8 on their last 10 games, while San Diego is 1-9 on their last 10 games. Therefore, this is an important series for both teams. The Giants will start Madison Bumgarner tonight, who held the Dodgers to two runs in seven innings last Saturday. Just the fact that he dominated the super red hot Dodgers shows how well Bumgarner is pitching right now. He has allowed just 2, 1, 2, 2 and 0 earned runs on his last five outings and even though he has been walking some batters here and there, the truth is that Bumgarner is being very impressive lately. San Diego's offense is hitting .228 BA versus LH pitchers on their last 10 games and the truth is that Bumgarner has dominated the Padres twice this season by allowing two earned runs on each game, while striking out 8 and 10 batters in the process. 

San Diego will start Jason Marquis, who allowed three earned runs on his last outing at Washington. Marquis keeps having some horrible advanced numbers and according to my rankings, I have Marquis as #150 in a total of 153 qualified pitchers! The best that can happen to a struggling team like San Francisco is to face a pitcher with poor command and this is exactly what the Giants will have in here. With the help of an in-form Bumgarner, I expect San Francisco to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ M. Bumgarner) @ -129 / 1.78 on Bovada

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/09: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 961 Colorado Rockies @ 962 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: J. Chacin vs E. Stults)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Jhoulys Chacin will start for the Rockies tonight and he keeps winning games! His command has been poor this season and it has only gotten worse on his last two outings with 4/3 and 3/3 K/BB ratios! On the other hand, Eric Stults will start for the Padres tonight and he allowed four runs last Thursday over 4.1 innings at Boston. Stults didn't show his nice strikeout punch on his last two starts, but this is a nice spot for him to bounce back, as he is back at home while facing a struggling offense. We have in here two subpar offenses and two pitchers with numbers that tell us that they are likely to regress soon. However, the pitchers will be protected by the pitcher-friendly park of San Diego. So, I believe the offense will be the difference in here. Colorado won't have Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Dexter Fowler on their lineup tonight and these are their top three batters. Therefore, I believe San Diego will have an excellent opportunity to end their losing streak tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 962 San Diego Padres ML (w/ E. Stults) @ -127 / 1.79 on Bovada

Saturday, July 6, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/05: San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 955 San Diego Padres @ 956 Washington Nationals 

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cashner vs G. Gonzalez)

Washington had back to back poor offensive games against Milwaukee just to explode yesterday against Donovan Hand with eight runs scored on .234 BA! On the other side, San Diego has lost all its momentum by losing their last six games. The Padres were managing to stay competitive due to an underrated offense, but since the hitting has gone awol, they have been struggling. Over the last six games, the Padres were only able to hit above .200 BA twice, so there are no miracles... 

San Diego will face Gio Gonzalez tonight, who is coming from a mega start at NY against the Mets with no runs allowed on seven innings, while having a 7/2 K/BB ratio! This was his sixth consecutive quality start, where he averaged 1.78 ERA, 0.967 WHIP and a 44/14 K/BB ratio over 40.1 innings! Gio struggled with his command early on the season, but he is currently pitching at CY Young level! Just take a look at the difference on K% and BB% on the first three months of the season:

April: 26.1% K% + 13.0% BB
May: 17.5% K% + 8.8% BB
June: 28.0% K% + 8.9% BB

Gonzalez will face the #27 ranked offense over the last 14 days tonight and therefore, I expect him to dominate the Padres tonight.

Andrew Cashner will start for the Padres and he is coming from five consecutive quality starts in June, where he averaged 2.78 ERA, 1.093 WHIP and 20/6 K/BB over 35.2 innings. Cashner has been pitching well, but he has been lacking a good strikeout punch. He faced Washington on May 19 and he pitched well with three runs allowed in 6.2 innings. However, the Nationals' offense was struggling massively at the time (#28 in May with .650 OPS), while they are now #8 in the league over the last seven days! I expect the Nationals to make a bit of damage on Cashner tonight, something that will be enough for them to pick up an easy win in here, as Gio should dominate San Diego with ease tonight on the other hand.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Washington Nationals RL -1 (w/ G. Gonzalez) @ -109 / 1.92 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/01: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 957 San Diego Padres @ 958 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Marquis vs J. Fernandez)

San Diego is starting Jason Marquis tonight, who had his third loss of the season last Tuesday, where he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings against the Phillies. Marquis walked five batters and allowed a three-run home run to Dominic Brown in the third inning. Marquis has a decent 3.99 ERA, but then his advanced stats are simply catastrophic: 20.8% HR/FB% and 5.37 FIP + 4.33 xFIP in June! His command is really poor with a 4/5 K/BB ratio against Philadelphia on his last start. Marquis was benefited for playing six games in a row in friendly parks, but now at Miami against a team that has regained a lot of confidence lately, I expect Marquis's problems to get heavily exposed tonight.

On the other hand, Miami is starting Jose Fernandez, who allowed one run in five innings against Minnesota on his last outing. Fernandez has been having a great rookie season and even though he struggles at times, he is showing the right composure to limit the damage! He is yet to face the Padres and so, he should use the surprise factor to dominate San Diego that is a much worse hitting team versus RH pitchers. I believe Miami will have a tremendous SP edge in here, while the Padres' offense is also struggling, so I rate both offenses at a similar level right now. This gives us great value on the Marlins in here and so, I'll take them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Miami Marlins ML (w/ J. Fernandez) @ -140 / 1.71 on Betonline

Monday, July 1, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/30: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 901 San Diego Padres @ 902 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cashner vs N. Eovaldi)

Miami will start Nate Eovaldi today, who is coming from a nice outing against the Giants, where he allowed two runs on six innings. Eovaldi had two road starts against Arizona and San Francisco, where he allowed two runs on each game, so I believe he is currently pitching quite well. His fastball velocity this season is up over two miles per hour from last year (where he had an already impressive 94mph), so the improved Eovaldi should be able to dominate the shorthanded Padres today.

San Diego will start Andrew Cashner, who is coming from really nice outings, with 2.93, 1.71, 2.18 and 2.77 FIP on his last four starts. He has already faced the Marlins this season and dominated, but Miami is now hitting better than they were early on the season and they are confident right now due to a nice win yesterday. Both pitchers are currently playing well, but San Diego is currently playing shorthanded and Miami with some regained confidence yesterday plus the home factor should be able to have a great shot of winning this one as home underdogs.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Miami Marlins ML (w/ N. Eovaldi) @ +103 / 2.03 on 5Dimes

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 957 Philadelphia Phillies @ 958 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs J. Marquis)

The Phillies is starting Kyle Kendrick tonight, who limited the Nationals on his last outing to just one run and two hits on 7.2 innings. On the other side, the Padres will be starting Jason Marquis, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. On his last outing, he faced the Dodgers on a tough spot for them and allowed just two runs on six innings. Marquis's advanced numbers are much worse than his ERA and he has been struggling versus LH batters this season by allowing .347 wOBA, 6.17 FIP and 4.92 xFIP! The Phillies have a decent number of lefties on their lineup, so they should be able to put Marquis on a struggling position tonight.

Kyle Kendrick has been pitching well lately, if we exclude a disaster at Colorado, where he allowed seven runs on 4.1 innings. He had a great outing against Washington and I have no doubts that Kendrick is a better pitcher than Marquis, with a 3.79 FIP and 3.55 xFIP! Kendrick had 5 days of rest prior to tonight's game and he should be able to help Philadelphia in picking up a nice win as an underdog tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ K. Kendrick) @ +109 / 2.09 on Betonline

Saturday, June 22, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 959 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 960 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: C. Kershaw vs C. Richard)

The LA Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw and he is back into domination mode with one earned run allowed on seven innings on each of his last two starts. He is being incredibly good especially against LH batters with a 0.92 FIP! This is a revenge game for him against the Padres and he lost against San Diego on June 2, even though he allowed just two runs in that outing.  I expect Kershaw to have another dominating performance tonight against the Padres.

San Diego will start Clayton Richard tonight, who is coming from his best start of the season, where he allowed just one run on seven hits against Arizona. Richard had just one strike out in that game, but his groundballs worked well. However, it's important to note that Arizona is just #21 on hitting vs LH pitchers this season, while the Dodgers are #14 and with a tendency to improve with Hanley Ramirez back. Even though Richard is coming from a nice outing, he has been one of the worst SP's of the league this season and so, we can't trust him.

The SP edge favoring the Dodgers in here is huge and so, I expect the Dodgers' lineup to be a bit more clutch than they were yesterday, getting a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ C. Kershaw) @ -139 / 1.72 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/17: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

MLB - 961 San Diego Padres @ 962 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs B. Zito)

The Padres are completely on fired right now. They took advantage of the home court edge, but their combination of good pitching with clutch hitting allowed them to win their last six games. On the other hand, the Giants are in a poor spot tonight, as they played at Atlanta last night on a Sunday Night Baseball game. San Diego will start Edison Volquez and he has been quite inconsistent this season. He got crushed at Colorado with nine runs and eleven hits allowed in just 2.1 innings, but we have to take in consideration that there aren't a lot of pitchers who don't get crushed at Colorado nowadays. After that game, Volquez bounced back against Atlanta with one run allowed in seven innings, while striking out nine batters! I know that he has a problem with walking batters, but he has a favorable matchup tonight. San Francisco is a pitcher-friendly park and the Giants lack patient to get walked a lot of times, with a 6.3% BB% over the last 14 days (#29)! The Giants' lineup has been inconsistent now that they're shorthanded and so, I expect Volquez to have a positive outing tonight.

On the other hand, Barry Zito will pitch for the Giants and it seems that he has exploded. He had a nice start of the season, but now he is either too hittable or has a really poor control. I faded him at Pittsburgh on his last outing and he allowed eleven runs in just 4.2 innings! Before that, he faced Toronto and couldn't strike out a single batter. He played better against Oakland, but he walked six batters and got luck that the Athletics were on a poor day and couldn't take advantage of that. Things will be different against the red hot Padres. San Diego is #4 on the league in OPS with .778 over the past two weeks, while hitting .306 BA on their last 10 games against LH pitchers! Zito has faced the Padres twice earlier on the season and he pitched well with just one and zero runs allowed, even though he pitched for just 3.2 innings on his last start with a terrible 24.8 P/IP! Now the Padres are much better than they were when they faced Zito in April, so I expect them to pound Zito tonight and pick up their seventh win in a row in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 961 San Diego Padres ML (w/ E. Volquez) @ +107 / 2.07 on Betonline

Sunday, June 16, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/15: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 963 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 964 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs J. Marquis)

Both offenses were terrible last night, but it's important to note that the Dbacks had a poor matchup against the in-form Eric Stults, while Trevor Cahill had a season high 10 strikeouts, on a really nice outing for him as well. But I expect both lineups to have better matchups tonight, especially as both starting pitchers are really struggling right now. Arizona will start Wade Miley, who has been terrible lately, with 3, 3, 7 and 7 runs allowed on his last four starts. He has been showcasing command problems, while he is also being very hittable, with 9, 11, 7 and 7 hits allowed in those four games. San Diego seems to be a terrible matchup for Miley as usual, as the Padres's current roster is hitting .304 BA and .864 OPS against him on 112 At Bats, while scoring 7 and 4 runs on the last two games against him.

On the other side, Arizona's lineup has also a good opportunity to bounce back after yesterday's disaster. Jason Marquis's command is terrible (4/5, 6/2, 6/4, 2/4, 3/4 and 3/4 K/BB ratios on his last six starts), while he has allowed a homerun on each of his last four starts! He is being lucky on June due to a really low BABIP (.167!) or he would have been getting pounded game after game right now. Arizona has been hitting well against RH pitchers and they have pounded Marquis with four and three runs on the last two games where they faced him, while the Dbacks' roster is hitting .344 BA and 1.117 OPS on 96 AB's against him! If we combine the problems that both pitchers will have with the low totals line of 7.5 runs, it is clear to me that we have good value on the Over and so, I'll be taking it in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Over 7,5 (w/ W. Miley & J. Marquis) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

Saturday, June 15, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/14: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 913 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 914 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: T. Cahill vs E. Stults)

Arizona is coming for tonight's game without their coach who is suspended. San Diego is currently very confident, as they have just swept the Braves at home. Both teams had a day off yesterday, so they will be fresh for tonight's game. The Dbacks are starting Trevor Cahill, who has been struggling as of late. He has been struggling all season long on walking batters and his lack of a strikeout punch only worsens this issue with 3/1, 0/1, 4/2 and 0/1 K/BB ratios on his last four starts. Even considering the fact that he is a GB pitcher, he has allowed a one home run in three of these four games! He will now face the red hot Padres and I simply don't trust him right now!

On the other side, San Diego will start Eric Stults tonight and he is currently on a roll with 19 strikeouts and 0 walks on his last three starts! Note that his last two games were at LA against the Dodgers (good team vs LH pitchers) and at Colorado (hitter-friendly park), but Stults was still able to have quality outings! He has already faced Arizona this season and he wasn't impressive with four runs in 6.1 innings. Having in account that Arizona's offense is struggling more versus LH pitchers, I believe Stults will now have a much better outing against the Dbacks. If we combine this with the problems that Cahill will likely have tonight, I can only expect San Diego to pick up a comfortable home win tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 San Diego Padres ML (w/ E. Stults) @ -122 / 1.82 on Bovada

Friday, June 7, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/06: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 907 San Diego Padres @ 908 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cashner vs J. Chacin)

Colorado is coming from an offensive burst yesterday at Cincinnati, where they won the last two games of the series and so, they are returning home tonight with good momentum. I believe that they will have a favorable matchup against Andrew Cashner, who after having some command problems that he seemed to have solved by not allowing any walks on his last two outings, the truth is that he is likely to have developed another problem: homeruns! He has allowed homeruns on his last four games, including three homeruns against Seattle and when a pitch allowed three homeruns against the Mariners at the pitching-friendly park of San Diego, this smells like huge trouble, especially when the following start is at Colorado! The Rockies showed once again yesterday that their offense is hitting well against RH pitchers, so we can expect them to crush Cashner tonight. He had a start against Colorado last year and it was a disaster with 10 hits and 6 runs allowed on 3.2 innings. 

On the other hand, Jhoulys Chacin had some problems on his last start against the Dodgers, but I expect him to bounce back today to continue a trend of bounce backs. He allowed five runs against the Rays, but bounced back at St Louis with just two runs allowed. He struggled at San Francisco with eight runs allowed, just to bounce back against Arizona with three runs allowed. He has already faced San Diego twice this season and he looked good with just one and two runs allowed. With Chacin bouncing back and with Cashner getting pounded by a red hot Rockies' lineup, I expect an easy win for Colorado tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Chacin) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes

Saturday, May 25, 2013

MLB Premium Play 05/24: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 959 San Diego Padres @ 960 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: E. Stults vs B. McCarthy)

Arizona will start Brandon McCarthy, who has been slightly improving lately after a terrible start of the season. He didn't allow a single run on his last two outings, where he pitched for eight and nine innings! However, I can't ignore the fact that he faced Miami, Philadelphia and the LA Dodgers on his last three starts, the three teams that are exactly in the bottom three this season in hitting versus RH pitchers! He will now face San Diego, who is #18 in the league against RH pitchers with .712 OPS this season and with a decent .278 BA on their last 10 games! McCarthy's go-to-pitch is the cutter and San Diego is #5 in the league in hitting against those. Therefore, I believe McCarthy will go back to struggling tonight in my opinion. 

On the other side, San Diego will start Eric Stults who is coming from an outing against Washington, where he allowed just one run in eight winnings. This was another good outing from him, who has allowed just seven runs on his last four starts on a span of 26.1 innings. Stults has been solid lately, but his season numbers aren't that great: 4.05 ERA, 3.81 FIP and 4.32 xFIP! Stults struggled against Tampa Bay and San Francisco earlier on the season and these two teams are #11 and #24 respectively on hitting against LH pitchers this season. On the other hand, Arizona is #20 with .672 OPS, while showing some improvements on this area lately. Stults is likely to struggle tonight, as he has a flyball rate a bit high. Therefore, I see this game turning into a shootout and so, I'll be taking the Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959/960 Over 9 (w/ E. Stults & B. McCarthy) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

MLB Premium Play 04/23: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres


MLB - 911 Milwaukee Brewers @ 912 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs C. Richard)

Clayton Richard is a flyball pitcher, who needs big fields for his outings and so, he played well on his last two home games with 2 and 0 ER allowed. However, he struggled on his command with 4/4 and 3/3 K/BB ratios. As expected, he has tremendous problems against RH batters and Milwaukee's lineup is full of righties to pound him tonight. In fact, the Brewers's roster is hitting .360 BA and .918 OPS against Richard!

On the other side, Yovani Gallardo had some bad lucks on his previous outings with a really high BABIP. His advanced states (3.51 FIP and 3.98 xFIP) are much lower than his 5.24 ERA, so he is pitching better than the numbers are showing. I believe he will have a nice outing tonight, while Richard will struggle against the Brewers's hot offense, therefore I'll be taking Milwaukee tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ Y. Gallardo) @ -127 / 1.79 on Betonline

Friday, April 5, 2013

MLB 04/05 Free Premium Play: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

  
San Diego  at Colorado 
 
 
MLB - 901 San Diego Padres @ 902 Colorado Rockies


(Starting Pitchers: J. Marquis vs J. Francis)

Colorado will play today their first home game of the season and so, they will be fired up. We know that the Rockies will struggle this season with their bad pitching, but their offense can be a major force if their main batters remain healthy. In their first series of the season at Milwaukee, Colorado hit better than .300 BA in the three games of the series, something that shows how good their hitting can really be. Fortunately for them, they will face Marquis today. He was horrible at the start of the past season until he joined the Padres in the second half of the season and looked decent. However, we know that pitching home games at San Diego helps any pitcher in improving. However, Marquis is a contact pitcher, who need impeccable command if he wants to be decent on an outing. The problem is that Marquis's command was wild during the Spring Training with a 15/15 K/BB ratio! If we add the fact that he will be pitching at Colorado today against the Rockies's roster who is hitting .303 BA and .961 OPS against him, things will be really tough for him today.

On the other side, Jeff Francis will have an easier task today against the putrid offense of the Padres, who is really missing their power guy Chase Headley. Francis had a good workload during Spring Training with 29.1 innings, where he showed good command with a 15/3 K/BB ratio. Like Marquis, Francis is a contact guy, but Francis has been showing good command during this early season, unlike Marquis. Looking at their spot for today, their huge edge on offense and their edge on the SP for today, I can only expect an easy win for the Rockies today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Colorado Rockies RL -1 (w/ J. Francis) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

MLB Free Premium Play 04/03: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

  
San Diego  at New York Mets 
MLB - 905 San Diego Padres @ 906 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: C. Richard vs M. Harvey)


The Mets will start Harvey tonight and he was one of the pitchers that impressed me the most in Spring Training. He is a top prospect with the potential to be an ace pitcher and he is showing exactly that. He pitched for 27 innings in Spring Training and had a 2.96 ERA and a 33/9 K/BB ratio! The Padres's offense is weaker without Chase Headley, who is currently injured and so, I expect Harvey to dominate tonight. On the other side, Richard also has a favorable matchup tonight. He had a huge gap on split stats in home games versus road games last season, but as the Mets's stadium is a pitcher-friendly park, I expect him to perform as well tonight as he generally performs in the pitcher-friendly park of San Diego. The Mets's offense is much weaker against LH pitchers (#26 in the league with .675 OPS last season) and on cold weather and huge lateral wind, I expect Richard to dominate them tonight. Therefore, I see this game being a very low scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Under 7 (w/ C. Richard & M. Harvey) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes