Tuesday, July 2, 2013

MLB Free Premium Play 07/02: Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets

  
Arizona  at New York Mets 
MLB - 905 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 906 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: P. Corbin vs J. Hefner)


Jeremy Hefner is starting for the Mets tonight and he is coming from a great outing at Colorado. In fact, he allowed just 1, 2, 1, 1 and 1 earned runs on his last five starts! Hefner has been having some luck with the opponents, as he has only faced one red hot offense at the time: the Cardinals, where he allowed six runs, but with just one earned run. Just like it happens with Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Hefner is also much worse versus LH batters. However, the Dbacks will just have two good players (Jason Kubel, Didi Gregorius) hitting from the left side tonight, so Hefner has a good chance of having another good outing tonight:

1. A.J. Pollock (R) CF
2. Aaron Hill (R) 2B
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
4. Miguel Montero (L) C
5. Cody Ross (R) RF
6. Jason Kubel (L) LF
7. Martin Prado (R) 3B
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS
9. Patrick Corbin (L) P

On the other side, Arizona will start Patrick Corbin, who allowed two runs in seven innings against Washington. He is yet to lose a decision this season, but he has been struggling a bit with home runs allowed on his last three games. However, considering his 6.3% HR/FB rate, Corbin is likely to bounce back from this particular fact tonight and pitching at NY against the Mets will only help him in that. Therefore, I expect Corbin to have another good outing tonight. Considering the good form of both starting pitchers, the poor spot for both offenses and the poor weather (60% chance rain), I see this game being a very low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Under 7 (w/ P. Corbin & J. Hefner) @ +105 / 2.05 on 5Dimes

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