MLB Premium Play 08/28: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

MLB - 957 Philadelphia Phillies @ 958 New York Mets
(Starting Pitchers: C. Hamels vs D. Matsuzaka) 
Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his second start for the Mets tonight and he is coming from five runs allowed on five innings on his first against Detroit. His stats of 9.00 ERA, 7.23 FIP and 4.79 xFIP clear show that this was a poor outing. He doesn't have quality to be a MLB SP anymore, with 88 mph fastballs and with a 17.2 P/IP! Therefore, Philadelphia should be able to make a good amount of damage on him tonight.

The Phillies will start Cole Hamels, who has been super solid lately. He faced three top teams (Arizona, LA Dodgers, Atlanta) on his last three outings and Philadelphia won all these three contests, with Hamels having a 2.75, 2.60 and 1.37 FIP on them! Excellent! The Mets's offense is struggling right now and even though they scored five runs yesterday, they hit just .167 BA and three of their five runs came from a single hit by their SP Jonathon Niese! With a clear SP edge tonight, I expect the Phillies to get revenge from yesterday's loss and pick an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Hamels) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/10: New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 961 New York Mets @ 962 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Wheeler vs B. McCarthy)

Zack Wheeler will start for the Mets tonight and he is coming from a very poor outing against the Royals, where he allowed four earned runs in five innings, while walking five batters! His command is nowhere to be seen and his fastball is also losing a lot of speed lately. Now against Arizona, I expect him to struggle once again. Arizona will start Brandon McCarthy, who is coming from two earned runs in 4.1 innings against Boston on his first start after coming from the DL. He limited the damage against the #1 team on hitting versus RH pitchers, while he will now face a team that is #22 in the league in that area and that has been playing without their top hitter David Wright. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Dbacks tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1 (w/ B. McCarthy) @ -117 / 1.86 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/09: New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 911 New York Mets @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs P. Corbin)

Arizona has some momentum for today, as they gave Tampa Bay a two-game sweep and they are now coming from a day off. On the other hand, the Mets took care of Colorado at home due to some solid pitching. Patrick Corbin will start for the Dbacks today and he allowed three runs in six innings against Boston last Saturday. This was Corbin's fifth quality start in a row, with a combined of 40/8 K/BB! His last poor outing was exactly at NY against the Mets, where he allowed five runs in six innings, so this is a revenge game for him tonight.

Jeremy Hefner will start for the Mets tonight and he is coming from three runs allowed in six innings against the Royals last Saturday. He has been having a poor second half of the season, with four subpar starts in a row. He was pounded by Philadelphia and Atlanta, while on his last two starts he allowed three earned runs on each outing, while having a poor command, as proved with his quite high P/IP ratio in those games: 18.3, 20.8, 20.5 and 31.5! The main problem for Hefner is that he struggled on his last two outings, even though he was facing Kansas City and Miami, two teams that are ranked #25 and #30 in hitting against RH pitchers!

With Corbin ready to get revenge against the Mets and with Hefner likely to struggle once again tonight, I expect the Dbacks to pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 912 Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1.5 (w/ P. Corbin) @ +115 / 2.15 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/04: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets

MLB - 973 Kansas City Royals @ 974 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs Z. Wheeler)

This will be the third game of this series, with the first two games going to extra innings. The Mets are also without their best hitter David Wright right now, so this is another problem for them. Both bullpens are also very used as the first two games of this series went to 11 and 12 innings and as the Mets will be starting Zack Wheeler, a pitcher that has only reached the 7th inning twice in eight starts, this will be a very tough problem for the Mets today.

Wheeler is coming from a nice start at Miami, but the Marlins just can't hit a ball these days. Kansas City might not be a great hitting team, but Wheeler is on regression mode with a poor 1.57 K/BB ratio, a 3.55 ERA, but a 5.17 FIP! On the other side, the Royals will start Erwin Santana today, who has been great lately, while allowing just 2, 1 and 0 earned runs on his last three outings, even though he faced Baltimore and Detroit in two of these games! With Santana dominating, Wheeler struggling and the with Royals having a bullpen edge, I expect Kansas City to pick up a comfortable win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 973 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ E. Santana) @ -146 / 1.69 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/03: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets

MLB - 921 Kansas City Royals @ 922 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: B. Chen vs J. Hefner)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ B. Chen) @ -142 / 1.70 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/24: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

MLB - 903 Atlanta Braves @ 904 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs J. Hefner)

This is a nice bounce back spot for Atlanta on a favorable matchup. They will face Jeremy Hefner tonight, who was on a nice streak, until he got pounded on his first start after the All-Star break, where he pitched for just two innings against Philadelphia with eight earned runs allowed. Hefner has some issues with home runs with a 11.6% HR/FB rate and I believe Atlanta's power lineup will cause him problems in here. Hefner struggles versus LH batters (.377 wOBA, 5.79 FIP and 4.87 xFIP) and so, Heyward, Freeman and McCain are likely to make Hefner struggle tonight.

On the other hand, Atlanta will start Tim Hudson tonight, who has been struggling here and there, but he has been consistent lately. Hudson is coming from three great outings (2.77, 2.48 and 1.90 FIP L3 starts), including a dominating outing against Philadelphia with just one earned run allowed in seven innings. I believe Atlanta will have a pitching, hitting and spot edge tonight over the Mets, so I'll be taking the Braves in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Atlanta Braves ML (w/ T. Hudson) @ -135 / 1.74 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 07/20: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

MLB - 901 Philadelphia Phillies @ 902 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: C. Hamels vs Z. Wheeler)

Philadelphia will start Cole Hamels today and he has been amazing on his last three outings by going deep in all of them (7, 8 and 8ip) and allowing just 2, 1 and 1 earned runs. His command was also great in these outings with a combined of 19/1 K/BB ratio! Hamels faced the Mets prior to these outings that turned his season around and he struggled with four earned runs allowed in six innings. Now that he is in good form, I expect Hamels to dominate the Mets today.

Zack Wheeler is coming from two wins where he allowed just one earned run on each outing, but his control has been terrible with 5/3 K/BB at San Francisco and 3/3 K/BB at Milwaukee! Wheeler's command has been really poor this season with a 1.31 K/BB ratio this season and so, I can expect Philadelphia to end up punishing Wheeler's poor control in here sooner or later. 

Philadelphia is now carrying some good momentum and they are now one game above 0.500 for the first time this season! They have a tremendous SP edge on this contest and so, I expect them to pick up a comfortable win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Hamels) @ -140 / 1.71 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/14: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 903 New York Mets @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: D. Gee vs G. Cole)

Pittsburgh just keeps winning with good pitching and some clutch offense on key moments. They will face Dillon Gee today, who has been erratic on his last starts, after a good run of quality outings. Gee's problem is directly related with the fact that he heavily struggles on poor spots. Look at his split stats in terms of rest days this season:

4 days rest: 11 starts - 5.43 ERA

5 days rest: 2 starts - 4.50 ERA

+6 days rest: 5 starts - 2.83 ERA

Gee will come to today's game with just 4 days of rest and he is coming from a start at San Francisco, where he threw 108 pitches. Therefore, he is on a poor spot today and I believe he will eventually get into trouble on this game. Gee had a start against Pittsburgh in May, where he played with 7 days of rest and he dominated at first sight with a 1.80 ERA, but where his advanced numbers tell another story with 4.26 FIP and 5.10 xFIP!

On the other side, Gerrit Cole will start today for the Pirates, replacing the injured Jeff Locke. Cole faced two red hot offenses on his last four outings (Philadelphia and the LA Angels) and he was even able to limit the damage well against the dangerous lineup of the A's with just two earned runs allowed in seven innings. The Mets' lineup shouldn't be too much of a challenge for him and I believe Cole will take this opportunity to impress his coach with another good outing. The Pirates are one victory away of matching the first-half win total of the franchise's celebrated 1971 World Series champion contingent, so this is an important game for them today. They will be fired up and I expect them to pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Pittsburgh Pirates RL -1 (w/ G. Cole) @ -113 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/12: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 903 New York Mets @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs C. Morton)

Both teams had a day off yesterday. The Mets have won their last four games, including a road sweep at San Francisco! On the other hand, Pittsburgh has lost four of their last five games and lost a bit of their steam. The Mets will start Jeremy Hefner tonight and he has been phenomenal lately. I took him on his last start at Milwaukee and he was great with just one earned run allowed in seven innings, while having a 8/1 K/BB ratio. According to my numbers, he had three great outings on his last six starts, while the other three outings were also quite decent. This is why he ended June with a great 2.90 FIP and 3.35 xFIP! One of my reasons why I took him at Milwaukee is because the Brewers' lineup is full of RH batters. Hefner has some issues versus LH batters (5.41 FIP and 4.80 xFIP), but he is simply amazing versus RH batters! Now against the Pirates, I expect Hefner to dominate once again tonight, as Pedro Alvarez is the only dangerous LH batters that Pittsburgh has on its lineup. This is exactly what Pittsburgh hits way worse versus RH pitchers than LH pitchers, with just .221 BA versus RH pitchers on their last 10 games.

Pittsburgh is starting Charlie Morton tonight, who has been very erratic and inconsistent since he returned to the league. Morton allowed four runs in six innings against the Cubs last Saturday. He hasn't been horrible in any start, but still his command is average-at-best with a 2.0 K/BB ratio. It's clearly that Morton isn't at the same awesome level that Hefner is right now, while the Mets' offense may be ranked #23 for the season, but they are #12 on their last 14 days. With the Mets having the super in-form Hefner tonight and with their confident offense, I expect them to be super competitive tonight and start the game very well under Hefner. So, I'll be taking the Mets on the first five innings in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 New York Mets First 5 Innings ML @ +133 / 2.33 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/07: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

MLB - 955 New York Mets @ 956 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs T. Gorzelanny)

The Mets will start Jeremy Hefner today, who has been great as of late with 1-1-1-2-1-1 earned runs allowed on his last six starts! He cruised against the Dbacks last Tuesday, while having a nice 6/2 K/BB ratio as well. Hefner will have a tough challenge today at Milwaukee, but Hefner seems ready for it. He is allowing just .207 BA, .251 wOBA, 3.24 FIP and 3.37 xFIP versus RH batters this season and the Brewers with a lineup full of righties don't seem to have in Hefner a nice matchup for them. Therefore, I believe the red hot Hefner will continue to dominate today.

Due to Wily Peralta's injury, Tom Gorzelanny will start for the Brewers today. He has been off the bullpen this season and his last appearance was last Thursday, where he pitched for 1.2 innings at Washington. His only start of the season was almost one month ago against Philadelphia and his advanced numbers weren't great on that outing: 4.82 FIP and 3.69 xFIP! I believe the Mets will have a clear SP edge today and even though the Brewers' offense is indeed better than the Mets, I believe the NY team has great value today, as Hefner is likely to dominate the Brewers, while the Mets' lineup will eventually have some opportunities against the unprepared Gorzelanny today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Mets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Hefner) @ +118 / 2.18 on Betonline

MLB Free Premium Play 07/02: Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets

Arizona  at New York Mets

MLB - 905 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 906 New York Mets (Starting Pitchers: P. Corbin vs J. Hefner) Jeremy Hefner is starting for the Mets tonight and he is coming from a great outing at Colorado. In fact, he allowed just 1, 2, 1, 1 and 1 earned runs on his last five starts! Hefner has been having some luck with the opponents, as he has only faced one red hot offense at the time: the Cardinals, where he allowed six runs, but with just one earned run. Just like it happens with Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Hefner is also much worse versus LH batters. However, the Dbacks will just have two good players (Jason Kubel, Didi Gregorius) hitting from the left side tonight, so Hefner has a good chance of having another good outing tonight: 1. A.J. Pollock (R) CF 2. Aaron Hill (R) 2B 3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B 4. Miguel Montero (L) C 5. Cody Ross (R) RF 6. Jason Kubel (L) LF 7. Martin Prado (R) 3B 8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS 9. Patrick Corbin (L) P On the other side, Arizona will start Patrick Corbin, who allowed two runs in seven innings against Washington. He is yet to lose a decision this season, but he has been struggling a bit with home runs allowed on his last three games. However, considering his 6.3% HR/FB rate, Corbin is likely to bounce back from this particular fact tonight and pitching at NY against the Mets will only help him in that. Therefore, I expect Corbin to have another good outing tonight. Considering the good form of both starting pitchers, the poor spot for both offenses and the poor weather (60% chance rain), I see this game being a very low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Under 7 (w/ P. Corbin & J. Hefner) @ +105 / 2.05 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/27: New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 967 New York Mets @ 968 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs T. Chatwood)

This is a make up game, where the Mets will on a tough mental spot, as they will return tomorrow to host Washington, while the Rockies will continue their home stretch tomorrow with a series against San Francisco. The NY team will start Jeremy Hefner, who is coming from four games where he allowed two or less runs per game. However, three of these four games were against subpar offensive teams such as Philadelphia, the Cubs and Washington. On his last start, he struggled with 10 hits allowed on six innings, but he got away with that. Now at Colorado, he won't get away with such performance. The Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood, who has been phenomenal at home with 2.22 ERA, 2.56 FIP and 3.39 xFIP! The Mets' offense has been horrible and they will be without their best hitter David Wright today. Therefore, I expect Chatwood to dominate, while the Rockies put Hefner in trouble, so I believe will pick up an easy home win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Colorado Rockies RL -1 (w/ T. Chatwood) @ -134 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/21: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 953 New York Mets @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs C. Hamels)

The Phillies are coming Cole Hamels, who has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this season. He has a 2-10 record on decisions, but he isn't pitching that terribly. He is coming from an outing at Colorado, where he allowed just three runs on seven innings, but as usual this season, he had no run support and lost another decision. If we look at his monthly FIP numbers, they are actually quite good: 4.33 in April; 3.99 in May; 2.65 in June! Now against a Mets' lineup that is #28 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers, I expect Hamels to have a good outing in here, just like the one he had earlier on the season against the NY team, where he allowed just one run in six innings.

The Mets will be starting Jeremy Hefner, who has allowed just one run on each of his last three outings, including a home game against the Cardinals. Just like Hamels, Hefner has been improving month after month this season. He started with a horrible 6.16 FIP in April, but then he recovered with a 3.94 FIP in May and he is now posting a 3.44 FIP in June! He faced the Phillies back in April and no wonder he got crushed with five runs allowed in three innings. However, Hefner's main problem this season has been facing LH batters (6.42 FIP and 5.17 xFIP) and the Phillies will have six players hitting on the left side on their lineup tonight, including a returning Chase Utley. 

Considering how Hamels is now clearly pitching at a good level and Hefner's struggles with left handed batters, I expect Philadelphia to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Hamels) @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/21: Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

MLB - 903 Cincinnati Reds @ 904 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs J. Niese)

Yesterday's game between these two teams had a totals line of 7.5 runs, even though the wind was favorable to the hitters. The score was 3-3 at the end of the 3rd inning, but eventually the game went under the total posted. The fact that teams had a 1-6 and 1-7 on RISP explain why the game went under. It has been rumored that Mike Leake would leave the rotation, but he had a nice outing on his last start with 9 hits and 0 runs allowed in 6.2 innings. However, that game was against Miami, so it was an easy start for Leake. The truth is that he has been quite inconsistent, with his positive outings being against the Phillies, the Cubs twice and Miami, teams that are #27, #13 and #30 on OPS versus RH pitchers this season. The Mets are just #25 OPS against RH pitchers with .687 OPS and just .206 BA on their last 10 games. However, the NY team has a lot of LH hitters who can put Leake in some trouble tonight.

On the other hand, Jonathon Niese had finally a good start and it was at St Louis, where he threw 113 pitches. He had just 4 days of rest prior to tonight's game and the last time he threw +110 pitches, he allowed 7 runs against Atlanta. He is struggling to have some strikeouts and the last time he had more than 3 strikeouts on an outing was at April 6th against Miami! Niese will now face a Reds team loaded with RH batters, while their hitters are Choo, Votto and Bruce! Cincinnati is an elite team against RH pitchers, as they are #5 in the league with .768 OPS! So, it's not a surprise that the Reds' roster is hitting .286 BA and .926 OPS against Niese! 

I expect the inconsistent Leake to have some problems tonight, while the Reds should put Niese in a lot of problems as well, so I can expect this contest to be a high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903/904 Over 8 (w/ M. Leake & J. Niese) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/03: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

MLB - 907 New York Mets @ 908 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: S. Marcum vs M. Minor)

Shaun Marcum will start for the Mets tonight and he is coming from a 28-pitch bullpen appearance last Monday. His first start of the season didn't go well, with just 71 pitches thrown in 4.0 innings, while allowing three runs. His velocity is also down 1 mph in comparison to last season (86.5 to 85.4). His inability of throwing strikes with his slower fastball makes me believe that he is completely on fade alert right now. Atlanta's offense hasn't been awesome lately, after a great start of the season, but this is a golden opportunity for them to bounce back tonight.

On the other hand, Atlanta will be starting Mike Minor, who is coming from an outing where he got crushed at Detroit. He pitched for 6.2 innings against the Tigers, while allowing six earned runs on six hits. He was actually pitching well until he ran into trouble on the six inning in Detroit. His ERA ballooned from 1.80 into 3.13, but I believe he will be able to get back on track tonight. He had four great starts in a row against the Cubs, Miami, Kansas City and Colorado. His letdown against the Tigers doesn't worry me, as they are a top offensive team and it was a Sunday Night Baseball game, so Detroit was fired up and ended up pounding Minor. The Mets started the season red hot against LH pitchers, but they have completely regressed lately and they are already just #19 in the league with .665 OPS against them this season. Therefore, I believe Minor has a nice matchup tonight to bounce back and so, I'll be taking the Braves tonight for a comfortable win for them.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Atlanta Braves RL -1 (w/ M. Minor) @ -136 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/25: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets

MLB - 903 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 904 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: H. Ryu vs J. Hefner)

NOTE: No writeup for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ H. Ryu) @ -132 / 1.76 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 04/03: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

San Diego  at New York Mets

MLB - 905 San Diego Padres @ 906 New York Mets (Starting Pitchers: C. Richard vs M. Harvey) The Mets will start Harvey tonight and he was one of the pitchers that impressed me the most in Spring Training. He is a top prospect with the potential to be an ace pitcher and he is showing exactly that. He pitched for 27 innings in Spring Training and had a 2.96 ERA and a 33/9 K/BB ratio! The Padres's offense is weaker without Chase Headley, who is currently injured and so, I expect Harvey to dominate tonight. On the other side, Richard also has a favorable matchup tonight. He had a huge gap on split stats in home games versus road games last season, but as the Mets's stadium is a pitcher-friendly park, I expect him to perform as well tonight as he generally performs in the pitcher-friendly park of San Diego. The Mets's offense is much weaker against LH pitchers (#26 in the league with .675 OPS last season) and on cold weather and huge lateral wind, I expect Richard to dominate them tonight. Therefore, I see this game being a very low scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Under 7 (w/ C. Richard & M. Harvey) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes