NBA - 509 New Orleans Hornets @ 510 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Lines: 183 points | Minnesota by 6 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
New Orleans is coming from a loss at Denver last night, where they tried to beat the Nuggets at their own style and they were competitive until they had no legs and got crushed by the Nuggets at the end of the game. Denver took advantage of the Hornets's poor transition defense and put pressure on the Hornets's ball handlers to create turnovers. New Orleans ended up committing 22 turnovers and thanks to that, Denver crushed them with 32 fast break points and 13-19 FG on transition plays! New Orleans struggled on their outside game, but they compensated that with a solid inside game with 50 points in the paint!
This will be the fourth game in five days for New Orleans. To make things worse for them, all these games were on the road and always with less hours for them to recover between games, as the start time of those games were: 10:30PM EST, 9:00PM, 9:00PM and 8:00PM today! To make things even tougher for them, their last two games were in Utah and Denver (altitude), something worrying especially when the Hornets had no legs down the stretch yesterday against the Nuggets. It seems like Eric Gordon played yesterday with a sore back and even though he says that he will play tonight, I doubt that he will be 100% healthy.
Minnesota will be also playing a back to back game, but they lost at home against the Lakers last night. They are a bit more healthy, with the return of Nikola Pekovic and Alexey Shved. They fell into a big early hole against the Lakers, but they made a nice comeback and they were just down by 4 points with 6 minutes to go, even though the Lakers then ran away with the game at the end. Minnesota had a very rare decent 3pts shooting with 10-22 3pts, but that wasn't good enough.
This will be the third game between these two teams this season. In the first two games, neither team was in back to back spots and even though both games were played on a really slow pace, the game had phenomenal offensive rates! The Hornets's defense has been crushing on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions, but Minnesota's offense struggles on these areas by being #20 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #26 on spot ups and #27 on transitions! On the other hand, the Hornets are on a super bad spot and with Nikola Pekovic back on the down low, I believe New Orleans will struggle tonight and so, I'll be taking the Wolves in here. As both teams are on poor spots (especially New Orleans), I don't see them repeating the great offensive rates they had in the previous games between these two teams, while the game pace should remain a pretty slow one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
This will be the third game between these two teams this season. In the first two games, neither team was in back to back spots and even though both games were played on a really slow pace, the game had phenomenal offensive rates! The Hornets's defense has been crushing on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions, but Minnesota's offense struggles on these areas by being #20 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #26 on spot ups and #27 on transitions! On the other hand, the Hornets are on a super bad spot and with Nikola Pekovic back on the down low, I believe New Orleans will struggle tonight and so, I'll be taking the Wolves in here. As both teams are on poor spots (especially New Orleans), I don't see them repeating the great offensive rates they had in the previous games between these two teams, while the game pace should remain a pretty slow one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Minnesota Timberwolves (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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