NBA 02/06 Premium Card

NBA - 711 Brooklyn Nets @ 712 Detroit Pistons

Projected Line: 185 points

Jose Calderon had a nice shooting game in his debut for the Pistons w/ 7-12 FG in 27 minutes but he had just 3 assists which is something to take notice. The Pistons will have to learn how to play with Calderon @PG and also with Knight being @ shooting guard as he has to adapt to a new position and this takes some time.

The pace of last game against the Knicks was incredibly slow so the Pistons are struggling to gain some identity and consistency.

The Nets offense (once again) looked horrible last night and I really should have played the Under in that game. I was afraid that with Jamison starting last night, the Lakers had too many individual defenders (Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant when he’s not focused, Pau Gasol and Jamison) but still the Nets were held to just 83 points & 34.8% FG.

On my game analysis article I wrote:

“Brooklyn's offense has been more stagnant lately and they averaged just 19.8 assists per game on their last 5 games. “

BKN had just 16 assists last night so we can see how stagnant their offense has been lately!

Both teams play in a slow pace half court style – BKN #30 pace factor while DET is #23 so we can expect a slow paced game for tonight like the first h2h was (I had pace=82.02). This is a b2b game for the Nets so they don’t have any incentive to run or change their approach while the Pistons with Calderon running the show will be also a half court team that doesn’t commit TO’s.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes



NBA - 713 Houston Rockets @ 714 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 210 points

Houston offense was unstoppable last night! It wasn’t only the fact that they tied the NBA record with 3pts made (23) by shooting 23-40 58.5%, the Rockets shared the ball w/ 35 assists vs. just 9 TO’s and according to mysenergy sports they had only 6 ISO plays in the entire game of their 115 total plays – a good signal of ball movement and unselfishness.

Because they were blowing out the Warriors, coach McHale could rest his starters and so no HOU played more than 33 minutes last night. Tonight’s game will be just the Rockets’ third game in 7 nights so we are not dealing with one of those spots that the Rockets struggled early on the season – b2b games with their players logging major minutes in the previous night.

The question for tonight’s game will be how Miami will approach the game! Will they try to shutdown the Rockets with a concerted defensive effort or will they run with them?

First of all, the Heat will face the Clippers and the Lakers at home after playing the Rockets tonight so I have many doubts that we will see the best defensive effort from Miami in here. We are talking with the ranked #3 most efficient offensive team in the league so this is a great chance for the Heat to have some fun in fast paced game that the Rockets will impose tonight.

Miami lately has been playing in a slower pace. My pace factor stat for the season is 89.42 but L10 games = 87.49 & L5 games = 86.36! However take a look of the Heat’s opponents and their respective pace factor rank of L7 games:

Toronto               #21      
Detroit                 #23
Boston                 #10
Brooklyn             #30      
Indiana                #25
Toronto               #21      
Charlotte            #13      
…
Houston              #1

No wonder the last Heat games have been slow paced affairs! Only Boston and Charlotte are on the top15 pace factor but the game against Boston was a weird battle because of all the Rondo situation (he was a late scratch in the game) while against the Bobcats in the last game, the Heat was in a tough spot of b2b games + super bowl day in which the Heat changed their usual routine just to see the game. Despite shooting 50.6% FG against Charlotte, the Heat shot just 1-12 treys! How many times we will say Ray Allen shooting 0-4 3pts against the worst 3pts defensive team in the league!?

The first h2h between these two teams was in November with the Heat winning 113-110 in a pure run and gun game! I expect the same tonight!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 715 Memphis Grizzlies @ 716 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: Memphis by 6 points

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 717 Golden State Warriors @ 718 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 15 points

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Oklahoma City Thunder (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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NBA - 701 LA Clippers @ 702 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 182 points

NOTE: No CP3, Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford for tonight = the 3 best offensive players for the Clippers while the Magic will be shorthanded as well without Afflalo, Redick and Glen Davis. Both teams don't have the firepower to produce consistent offense for full 48min and I expect this contest to be a ugly one.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 703 Indiana Pacers @ 704 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 178 points

The Pacers are red hot right now! We all know how good they are defensively and also in rebounding the basketball but their offense lately has been simply unstoppable! They have now five straight games in which their Off. Rates are +110 and no wonder they are simply crushing their opponents. Last night the Pacers used a 19-4 run late in the second quarter to take the lead, with Paul George and David West's big second halves leading the way to the victory. However this is not a good spot for them… they will play the only back-to-back-to-back game of the season due to the makeup game against the Bulls last Monday so the Pacers aren’t in a good physical and mental spot for tonight: they had to travel to Philly and they are coming from 3 straight games against potential playoff opponents – Miami, Chicago and Atlanta.

Despite all the great offense displayed by the Pacers last night I didn’t like the fact that they took so many jump shots: they shot just 11-17 FG at the rim vs. 8-19 FG from 16-23feet & 11-25 treys – almost 60% of the shots taken by the Pacers were from +16feet! Sure that they were incredible with their outside shooting but in such a bad physical spot like the Pacers will have today, this “jump shooting” mindset from the Pacers might work against them tonight.

On the other side, the 76ers lost Thaddeus Young in their last game and Young is along with Jrue Holiday the most important player of the 76ers. According to 82games.com, the 76ers have off.rates of 105.2 with Young on the court and just 96.0 without him! That’s a huge difference! Coach Collins doesn’t have any other choice but to give Lavoy Allen and rookie Arnett Moutrie and this 76ers’ team simply don’t have any firepower down low as Spence Hawes being their only legit offensive frontcourt player  is more a mid range shooter center than exactly a post up player.

I expect this contest to be a slow paced game because that’s the way these two teams plays with the Pacers finally having a subpar offensive game while the 76ers will have some serious problems to score without Young.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 182.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 705 New York Knicks @ 706 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: 196 points

The Knicks are back! Raymond Felton returned on the Knicks's game at Philadelphia and their offense was pathetic in that game by scoring just 80 points. However, since that game, the Knicks have torched their opponents with some incredible offensive numbers: 126.2, 139.3, 111.8, 133.4 and 118.5 offensive ratings on their last 5 games! In these games, the Knicks attempted an average of 34.6 treys per game, something that might look insane, but they converted 43.9% of them! With Felton back, the Knicks's ball movement improved dramatically, especially in the connection with their frontcourt. If at the start of the season, Tyson Chandler was having a lot easy plays to catch and dunk with Felton, now it's Amare Stoudemire who has been a beast lately with 8-14 FG, 10-10 FG, 5-10 FG, 7-7 FG, 6-9 FG and 8-13 FG on the team's last six games, for a combined of 44-63 (70%) FG! Defensively, the Knicks looked good, but they have also been facing some favorable matchups, as Orlando, Milwaukee, Sacramento and Detroit aren't exactly good offensive teams, so their recent defensive numbers are a bit overrated in my opinion. 

The Wizards had the "prize" of facing the Clippers without their best two players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. They took advantage of that and defeated the LA team by 98-90. The most important part of this win was Washington's offense that was coming from three starting games where they had an offensive rating lower than 100 (points per 100 possessions). This time, the Wizards had a 106.5 offensive rating! They were really sharp early on the game and started the game with 8-9 FG! The Wizards's ball movement was great and Garrett Temple was the surprising offensive contributor in the team's early run. Washington would end the game with 27 assists and just 13 turnovers! It was a balanced effort from them, as they had five players in double digits points and eight players had at least one assists! Defensively, the Wizards forced 20 turnovers to the Clippers and they also limited well the Clippers's inside game, as the LA team scored just 28 points in the paint, on a game where the Clippers's frontcourt offense had a unimpressive unit of DeAndre Jordan, Lamar Odom and Ronny Turiaf! Therefore, we can'y really take a lot of conclusions on Washington's defense from this game. However, as long as Washington manages to be a decent offensive team, they can be competitive, as they have a very underrated defense.

Not only the Knicks are shooting great behind the line – L5 games they are shooting 43.9% 3pts while attempting almost 35 treys per game but they are scoring well inside as well – I have them shooting almost 70% FG at the rim with both Chandler and Stoudemire getting easy dunks and/or layups.

The Wizards defense has been pretty decent all season long and even great lately but I think that it will be tough for them to shutdown this Knicks’ offensive power. In the L6 games the Wizards def. rates = 97.10 which is great but let’s not forget that they faced the shorthanded Bulls; the Kings; the 76ers; the Grizzlies; the Spurs who scored 51 pts in the first half against them but faded away in second half due to Duncan’s injury and a Clippers team who were playing without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Their defense was great indeed but they had some pretty good favorable matchups during this recent span.

The issue in this contest is to find out if the Wizards will be able to score at a decent rate or not.

They are coming from a nice offensive balanced game against the Clippers in the last game. The key for such solid offensive game was obviously related with their good transition game – 19 fast break points w/ 9-15 FG in transition! The good news for them is that the Knicks aren’t a good defensive transition team, they are ranked just #22 allowing 1.16 PPP & L10 games = 1.19 PPP! Even the big, slow footed Pistons’ team was able to score 22 fast break points against the Knicks in the last game so I expect the Wizards to be focused in exploring this glaring weakness of the Knicks defense and push up the pace of the game every time they can. John Wall has to own the matchup vs. Felton / Kidd / Prigioni as he is too fast for the Knicks’ PG’s.

The last time these two teams faced each other, the Wizards didn’t have John Wall and they ended up scoring just 87 points w/ just 2 fast break points! I can guarantee you that this will not happen tonight!

I expect this contest to have a good tempo due to WAS’s style of play and game plan while the Knicks offense are simply red hot.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 191.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 709 Charlotte Bobcats @ 710 Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Line: 209 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Cleveland is coming from one of their best wins of the season, on a home game against Oklahoma City, where they were double digits underdogs. Kyrie Irving put on a show down the stretch, while showing that he will someday in the future be a MVP candidate. The most curious aspect of the Cavaliers lately is that their second unit has been playing really well. Their trade with Memphis looked to be just for the Grizzlies to dump some money, but the truth is that Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington have adapted very quickly to Cleveland and suddenly, the Cavaliers don't have that weak bench anymore, where Luke Walton was being forced to play significant minutes at the PF position. They have now more depth on their roster and some interesting chemistry as well. Against the Thunder, Speights was a major factor with 10-15 FG, 21 points and 10 rebounds, while the Cavaliers's bench outscored the Thunder's bench by 44-26! This improvement from Cleveland's bench has been preventing their level of play to go down big time everytime Irving is on the bench. This is quite visible on their offensive ratings, as they are averaging a 103.8 offensive rating for the season, while their offensive rating average on their last 10 games was 108.9!

Charlotte took advantage of Miami's physical and mentally poor spot to be competitive against them in yesterday's game. The way they managed to do that was atypical to what the Bobcats have been doing this season. Miami's Big Three ended the game with a combined of 31-51 (60.7%) FG, but the worst 3pts defensive team in the league managed to hold one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the league to just 1-12 3pts, while Charlotte's best player, Kemba Walker, played just 22 minutes due to foul trouble. With the return of Byron Mullens, Charlotte has now a frontcourt player who has no problems in having an important role in the team's offense, even though he keeps shooting too much from the outside: he took 14 shots in just 28 minutes! After four games in a row where they were double digits underdogs, Charlotte has now a game where they can possibly be more competitive against this Cavaliers team. In the previous game between these two teams this season, Charlotte lost by 2 points at home, so I expect them to come confident to this contest, thinking that they have a shot of beating Cleveland on this contest.

Cleveland has been playing at a faster pace than usual lately, as they have bigger depth and so, they don't need to manage the game pace so much like previously. While their offense has been improved, their defense has been regressing a lot lately, as they have been averaging a defensive rating of 115.18 over their last 10 games! It seems that Cleveland isn't focused on defending, but in outscoring their opponents right now. Charlotte's offense will have two considerable edges on this contest. The first one has to go with their guard play with Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions. Walker is coming from a game where he played just 22 minutes, so he will be rested for this contest and of course, on an aggressive bounce back mode! Charlotte is #2 on pick and roll ball handler plays with a nice 0.87 PPP mostly thanks to these two players and they will be facing a Cavaliers's defense that is just #23 on pick and roll ball handler defense while allowing 0.82 PPP for the season and 0.87 PPP on their last 10 games! On the other hand, Charlotte has their main offensive goal to score early on the shotclock. They struggle heavily on half court games, so this is why the Bobcats is one of the teams with the most volume on transition plays (#3 in the league) and the Cavaliers's defense has been horrible all season long in transition defense by being #25 in the league while allowing 1.19 PPP for the season and 1.24 PPP on their last 10 games!

Cleveland's offense with Kyrie Irving in MVP mode will be too much for Charlotte's defense. They are scoring more effectively at the rim nowadays, with Marreese Speights giving his team a good help, and even from the outside, Cleveland's offense has been more efficient, as if we remove the game against Golden State, where Irving was sick, Cleveland shot 27-64 (42%) 3pts! On the first game between these two teams this season, Cleveland won at Charlotte by 106-104. I expect a similar game to happen in here, with a fast pace and with both teams scoring more than 20 fast break points. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 725 Milwaukee Bucks @ 726 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 194 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

NOTE: IT's  A DOUBLE DIME PLAY!

So the Bucks wanted to “outgun” the Nuggets in Denver against a rested Nuggets team? Good luck with that! Last night’s game was the second fastest contest so far this season, only one HOU vs OKC game back in December was faster! The Nuggets game plan early on was quite simply: edge hard Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings in order to force them to take long range jumpers! If we look for both players FG%’s numbers at the end of the game, they were successful because Ellis = 6-21 FG & Jennings = 5-15 FG! The problem is that the Nuggets simply didn’t seem worried about the “Bucks bigs” and Dalembert…. well, he was 10-11 from the field for 21 points in just 9:29 of action at the half time!

In the second half, DEN was way more aggressive while Coach Karl decided to use his crazy small ball lineups something that MIL’s Coach Boylan acknowledged after the game:

"They played small the whole second half, which caused a little bit of a problem for us," said Boylan. "Especially with the guys I like to have out on the floor. Sometimes unfortunately you can't have everyone out there because when teams are playing small like that, I like to try to stay big to make them pay for it, but then the game started to slip away from us and we had to re-adjust and match up to them a little bit more."

Dalembert still ended up scoring 35 points w/ 17-21 FG and grabbed 12 rebounds but down the stretch he simply ran out of gas and the Nuggets won despite trailing by as many as 17 points.

The Bucks price to play such at frenetic pace last night in Denver is to play a back to back game in altitude as well, this time in Utah! Damn!

Both Jennings and Monta Ellis played at least 40 minutes each so I don’t think that they are capable of putting monster games tonight especially Jennings who really struggles in b2b games – this season he is shooting 34.5% FG in 12 b2b games! Much because of that, the Bucks offense have been struggling in b2b games this season w/ off.rates = 101.3 vs. 105.5 off.rates when rested!

 Unlike the Nuggets, the Jazz really don’t have any incentive to run tonight against Milwaukee! Larry Sanders is doubtful to play and obviously Dalembert will be completely dead tired tonight so the Jazz have a considerable edge down low which they would like to explore.  Note that the Bucks are one of the best teams in the league in defending the rim!

Gordon Hayward remains out for tonight and he is really the Jazz best backcourt player and the only one capable of pushing the pace and make the right decisions in transition – Foye and Teasley are just too slow!

The Jazz have been playing more in halfcourt lately and their game plan for tonight won’t be different while the Bucks offense are mired in a bad spot to produce points tonight.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 725/726 Under 200.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker