NBA - 811 New Orleans Hornets @ 812 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: Atlanta by 8 points
Atlanta is coming from a good home win against Memphis, with Jeff Teague having an excellent performance with 22 points and 13 assists. Al Horford and Josh Smith also played very well and the Hawks as a team showing great ball movement (28 assists and 13 turnovers), while shooting 62.2% FG in the first half. Atlanta had great offensive numbers in three areas, where they have been showing more volume lately: pick and roll ball handler plays with 5-8 FG and 1.45 PPP, spot ups with 12-24 FG and 1.19 PPP and transitions with 6-14 FG and 0.86 PPP. These three kind of plays combined have been representing more than 50% of the Hawks's shots over their last 5 games and the Hornets's defense is just terrible on these three areas: #18 on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.80 PPP allowed for the season, but 0.97 PPP over their last 5games; #25 on spot ups defense with 1.01 PPP allowed; #27 on transition defense with 1.22 PPP allowed. The last times the Hornets's defense faced teams with an offensive mindset to score in transition, they allowed 32 fast break points to Denver, 20 fast break points at Houston and 25 fast break points at San Antonio. Therefore, Atlanta's offense has a big edge today.
On the other hand, New Orleans have big guys and they aren't powerful down low. Ryan Anderson is an outside shooter, Anthony Davis isn't powerful and Robin Lopez is the only one with potential to be physical down low, but he is inconsistent. The Hornets's offense has been quite inconsistent lately and Eric Gordon is the prime example of that. Also their rebounding has been quite poor lately by grabbing just a combined of 46.7% of the rebounds on their last 5 games! I don't see them having a big offensive game in here, which combined with the great offensive game I believe the Hawks will have, makes me think that Atlanta will get a very comfortable win tonight. So, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 812 Atlanta Hawks (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
No comments:
Post a Comment