Sunday, February 10, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 02/10: Portland Trailblazers @ Orlando Magic

  
Portland  at Orlando 
NBA - 805 Portland Trailblazers @ 806 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 200 points


Orlando with their best players available is a decent offensive team, but their effort on defense is basically non-existent, as they are all involved in trade rumors and they are putting all their effort on having good offensive performances nowadays, in order to pad their numbers. Orlando's defense hasn't been good against pick and roll ball handler plays the whole season due to the lack of effort from Jameer Nelson. Their post up defense is also poor as Dwight Howard is no longer in Orlando, so Portland's offense will have some big edges today with Damian Lillard and his pick and rolls plus LaMarcus Aldridge in the frontcourt, who has been dominant on offense lately.

On the other side, Orlando's offense has also some good edges against the Blazers's defense. After two poor offensive games where Orlando was completely shorthanded (the Magic scored 61 and 76 points in those two games), the Magic with Arron Afflalo back had a nice offensive bounce back on their last game against Cleveland by scoring 108 points. Portland's defense has been poor lately (112.04, 105.94, 119.72 and 136.51 defensive ratings over their last 4 games), so we can also expect the Magic to have a good offensive game tonight.

These two teams don't have a great defensive intensity and the game played in Portland between these two teams earlier on the season ended with a 108-108 tie in regulation. Portland and Orlando ended the game with 34 and 35 assists, something incredible, as they weren't on a good spot at the time: Orlando was starting a road trip in the West, so they had just traveled from Orlando to Portland, while the Blazers were coming back home after a tough road trip and they were also playing their 5th game in just 7 days. Still, both teams excelled offensively in that game and I expect the same to happen tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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