NBA Premium Play 02/09: Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA - 501 Denver Nuggets @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Lines: 219 points | Denver by 9 points

The Cavaliers have been a fun team to watch lately. They have one little guy playing like a MVP and suddenly a team that has no depth on their roster have now a decent second unit with great chemistry, thanks to a trade. The days were Luke Walton was their main frontcourt player coming off the bench or an inexperienced Jeremy Pargo having to run the second unit are now behind Cleveland. I have already mentioned this before their game against Charlotte, where I took the Over. In fact, we successfully took the Over on the Cavaliers's last three games: 

“The most curious aspect of the Cavaliers lately is that their second unit has been playing really well. Their trade with Memphis looked to be just for the Grizzlies to dump some money, but the truth is that Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington have adapted very quickly to Cleveland and suddenly, the Cavaliers don't have that weak bench anymore, where Luke Walton was being forced to play significant minutes at the PF position. They have now more depth on their roster and some interesting chemistry as well. Against the Thunder, Speights was a major factor with 10-15 FG, 21 points and 10 rebounds, while the Cavaliers's bench outscored the Thunder's bench by 44-26! This improvement from Cleveland's bench has been preventing their level of play to go down big time everytime Irving is on the bench. This is quite visible on their offensive ratings, as they are averaging a 103.8 offensive rating for the season, while their offensive rating average on their last 10 games was 108.9!”

Guess what? Once again, the Cavaliers's bench was amazing yesterday and they were the X factor for Cleveland to pull away from Magic in the fourth quarter. They scored a total of 51 points and their two new players (Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington) had 18 points and 14 points! Cleveland shot the ball well, they were aggressive by going to the FT line a total of 41 times and they committed 6 turnovers, while Orlando had 19!

There isn't much to say about Denver. If you have been following my work, then you have read a lot of stuff about Denver in my previews/recaps/plays. Denver's offense looks unstoppable lately, as not only they are attacking in transition and crushing the basket, but they are also hitting their outside shots. Surely it helps that all their recent games were at home, where Denver has only lost three times this season. Defensively, it looks like Denver only shows effort when it's needed, as on their last two games against Milwaukee and Chicago, Denver allowed their opponents to have major first half scoring outcomes, just to shut them out in the second half. Denver played tomorrow at Denver, so let's see if they will be totally focused in tonight's game and not already in tomorrow's showdown against the Celtics.

Denver is currently playing their best basketball of the season and despite having a game tomorrow on National TV, I expect them to be "okay" in terms of mindset, as I believe Cleveland's spot is actually even more "letdown-prone" than Denver's. 

Cleveland has been having some nice offensive games, but at the same time, they simply can't or don't want to defend! Their recent defensive rates in their last 5 games show exactly that: 117.92, 121.97, 117.59, 105.27 and 110.60! The Cavaliers have won their last three games and they think that they can beat any team by outscoring them. They defeated last night a banged up Magic team, but their interior defense was pathetic, with Nikola Vucevic looking like an All-Star with 25 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block and only 1 turnover, while shooting 12-19! Andrew Nicholson, the team's improvised PF, also shot 9-13 FG in 31 minutes, while having 8 rebounds, so the Magic's starting frontcourt duo combined a shooting of 21-32 (66%) FG!

As the Cavaliers have been winning their games, their mindset for tonight will be the same. Of course Cleveland's with their current offense don't have problems in beating teams like Charlotte or Orlando, but beating a red hot Nuggets team with an outgunning mentality is simply impossible for them.

You know the drill about the Nuggets's offense: transitions, offensive rebounds, scoring at the rim and lately outside shooting as well! Cleveland's defense is #25 against transitions, #25 on defensive rebounding and #28 on FG% allowed at the rim, so it's easy to realize that Denver is going to have another massive offensive game tonight. I expect this game to be a run and gun contest, with the Nuggets being the better team on both ends of the floor. The Cavaliers are going to realize tonight that they don't have the weapons to outgun the Nuggets like they have been doing it against lowly teams, so I'll be taking both Denver and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 215 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Denver Nuggets (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker