NBA - 813 New York Knicks @ 814 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Line: NY Knicks by 3 points
The Knicks went to their last game at Washington completely red hot on offense and defense. They were on a winning streak, where they were attempting 32.5 treys per game, but as they were shooting over 40% 3pts, everything looked good and the Knicks were crushing their opponents. As the old saying tells us: "you live by the three, you die by the three" and the Knicks had a subpar performance at Washington with 9-28 3pts and so, of course they lost the game. Even though they faced an aggressive up and down team in the Wizards, the game was still a super slow paced game. I projected this game to have a pace range of about 88-91, but the pace was just 86.5, which means that the Knicks clearly set the tempo of this game. Now coming from a loss, the Knicks will be trying to bounce back tonight on the road against another losing record team, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota is coming from another game where they managed to be competitive for a while, but they just couldn't sustain that level for the whole 48 minutes and so, they lost once again, this time against San Antonio. The good news is that Ricky Rubio is much better physically and he has been aggressive in both ends of the floor. He shot 3-13 FG, but I honestly don't remember the last time he had attempted double digits in Field Goals! Minnesota outhustled San Antonio by grabbing 55% of the rebounds, something normal as the Spurs are playing without Tim Duncan, but their poor shooting night (40.7% FG) prevented the Wolves from winning the game. Curiously, Minnesota had a nice outside shooting game, a rarity for them, with 8-18 (44.4%) 3pts, but they just couldn't shoot well down low with just 36 points in the paint and 15-34 (44.2%) FG at the rim! For today, they have no changes on their injuries and Andrei Kirilenko will miss another tonight's game as well. Minnesota was capable of being competitive at New York earlier on the season by losing by just 3 points. This is their final game of a home span, so we can expect good effort from them again, even though this hasn't been a guarantee of positive results for them this season.
I've been liking the Wolves's backcourt dynamic, as they put a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handler and they are very aggressive on offense. On their last game against San Antonio, Minnesota scored 18 fast break points with 7-11 FG and 1.40 PPP on transition plays! Minnesota's main problem was their inability to score down low, but that wasn't a big surprise, as San Antonio is #2 in the league in rim defense while allowing just 59.8% FG! Of course they were playing without Tim Duncan, but San Antonio's defensive system is simply awesome on this area. On the other hand, the Knicks's rim defense is the 7th worst in the league by allowing 66.0% FG at the rim and we've seen previously on this season how they struggle in stopping quick guards. Of course the Wolves don't have anybody with the speed of John Wall, but still Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved are all quick speed. With this new configuration, Minnesota has been playing very well on transitions and cuts, with these two areas being the Knicks's main two defensive problems this season, as they are #23 on cuts defense with 1.21 PPP allowed and #22 on transition defense with 1.16 PPP allowed!
The Knicks will come for this game with their usual game: shooting 3pts, However, Minnesota has been a decent team all season long on spot up defense by being #5 in the league with 0.93 PPP allowed. Therefore, I believe the Wolves are going to be a super competitive home underdog tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 814 Minnesota Timberwolves (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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