Wednesday, February 6, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 02/06: Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat

  
Houston  at Miami 
NBA - 713 Houston Rockets @ 714 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 210 points


Houston offense was unstoppable last night! It wasn’t only the fact that they tied the NBA record with 3pts made (23) by shooting 23-40 58.5%, the Rockets shared the ball w/ 35 assists vs. just 9 TO’s and according to mysenergy sports they had only 6 ISO plays in the entire game of their 115 total plays – a good signal of ball movement and unselfishness.
Because they were blowing out the Warriors, coach McHale could rest his starters and so no HOU played more than 33 minutes last night. Tonight’s game will be just the Rockets’ third game in 7 nights so we are not dealing with one of those spots that the Rockets struggled early on the season – b2b games with their players logging major minutes in the previous night.
The question for tonight’s game will be how Miami will approach the game! Will they try to shutdown the Rockets with a concerted defensive effort or will they run with them?

First of all, the Heat will face the Clippers and the Lakers at home after playing the Rockets tonight so I have many doubts that we will see the best defensive effort from Miami in here. We are talking with the ranked #3 most efficient offensive team in the league so this is a great chance for the Heat to have some fun in fast paced game that the Rockets will impose tonight.
Miami lately has been playing in a slower pace. My pace factor stat for the season is 89.42 but L10 games = 87.49 & L5 games = 86.36! However take a look of the Heat’s opponents and their respective pace factor rank of L7 games:

Toronto #21
Detroit #23
Boston #10
Brooklyn #30
Indiana #25
Toronto #21
Charlotte #13

Houston #1

No wonder the last Heat games have been slow paced affairs! Only Boston and Charlotte are on the top15 pace factor but the game against Boston was a weird battle because of all the Rondo situation (he was a late scratch in the game) while against the Bobcats in the last game, the Heat was in a tough spot of b2b games + super bowl day in which the Heat changed their usual routine just to see the game. Despite shooting 50.6% FG against Charlotte, the Heat shot just 1-12 treys! How many times we will say Ray Allen shooting 0-4 3pts against the worst 3pts defensive team in the league!?

The first h2h between these two teams was in November with the Heat winning 113-110 in a pure run and gun game! I expect the same tonight!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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