NBA Premium Play 02/07: Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 503 Chicago Bulls @ 504 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: Denver by 9 points

I love this Bulls team and every time I go against them it’s tough for me to watch their games because of the hard way they play however this Nuggets team is a tough matchup for them and more importantly this is the wrong time for the Bulls to face them on the road.

The Bulls always plays “big” and they are aggressive in searching for offensive rebounds. While this is a good thing, the problem is that on the other side of the ball the Bulls are a poor defensive team in transition. Right now they are ranked #27 allowing 1.21 PPP but L10 games numbers are even worst w/ 1.29 PPP & L5 games = 1.30 PPP!
They are also having some problems to stop opposing quick guards and this problem is even worrying as of late because Kirk Hinrich is injured and Nate Robinson is logging major minutes.

These two defensive problems for the Bulls will be completely exposed by the Nuggets tonight.  Denver is just killing their opponents in transition, they are #1 in fast break points per game w/ 19.3 but just look for their late game logs FB pts:

21
18
22
33
21
26
32
33

At the same time, Ty Lawson is finally playing at his best and his matchup tonight is pretty favorable as Nate Robinson simply won’t be able to stay in front of him! Besides all the good stuff the Nuggets offense have been doing all season long, they are now shooting better from the outside especially due to the overall improvement of Lawson and Gallinari.

The Bulls are a bit “healthier” but those guys are still banged up and are coming from playing heavy minutes (+44min!) in the last games… when you play against Denver this won’t be enough.

In the last game, the Nuggets allowed Dalembert to have a monster game so there is the question that the Bulls frontline might have similar production but I don’t think so. Dalembert’ having a great game was part of coach Karl’s game plan to edge/press hard Ellis and Jennings (and these two players had horrible shooting numbers) all game, obviously by pressing hard on the perimeter, you have to sacrifice some inside spacing. The Nuggets won’t do the same thing tonight because the Bulls don’t have such skillful guards on the roster.

TNT game, last home game of this home stretch = Denver domination!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Denver Nuggets (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker