NBA Free Premium Play 02/08: Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers

Toronto  at Indiana

NBA - 801 Toronto Raptors @ 802 Indiana Pacers Projected Line: Indiana by 4 points The 76ers never had great depth on their roster for this season, as they expected to build their team around Andrew Bynum. On this game against Indiana, they discovered that Jason Richardson will be out for the season and that Thaddeus Young will be out for at least three weeks and so, their offensive talent is close to non-existent especially against a top defensive team like Indiana. The Pacers were on a terrible back-to-back-to-back spot and that was visible on offense, as they shot just 39% FG, but defensively, their gameplan was quite easy for them: stop Jrue Holiday and that was pretty much it. When the Sixers's only decent post player Spencer Hawes shoots 3-13 FG, Philadelphia's offensive is obviously in deep trouble. Indiana edged Holiday hard by pressuring him. He had 5 turnovers and ended the game with 7-22 FG!  To realize how good the Pacers's defense was in this game, Philadelphia shot 4-18 FG in pick and roll ball handler plays! Indiana is now 5-0 on their last 5 games and they are winning in multiple ways! This back-to-back-to-back was a good example of that, as they scored 111 and 114 points in their first two games, while in the third game of this pace, they completely shutdown their opponents's offense! They will now return home to face the Raptors, where they have been invincible as of late.  Even though this isn't a back to back game for Indiana, this spot is in my opinion tougher than the spot they had on their last game at Philadelphia! We are talking about 4 games in 5 days, with travelling involved on their last two games! It's true that they had an easy win at Philadelphia, but all Indiana's starters played more than 30 minutes, with Paul George playing 40 minutes! The Pacers have been super well on offense lately, especially on their outside shooting, but I believe they have been taking their approach too far and they are developing a wrong mindset to their game. Indiana is built to pound their opponents down low and not to take outside shots, but on their last two games, they shot locations have been from a pure jump shooting team! Indiana with their good shooting created a bad habit and this can be dangerous for them, especially on poor spots. Season numbers %shot locs: %Rim %Short %Mid %Long %3P 0.29 0.14 0.08 0.22 0.24 L2 games: %Rim %Short %Mid %Long %3P 0.23 0.10 0.08 0.30 0.27 As we can see, they have a shooting volume of 46% from +16 feet shots this season, but the volume from this area went to 57% on their last two games! If we add the fact that this isn't a good physical spot for Indiana today and the fact that they will be facing a lowly Raptors team, I believe the Pacers are great fade material today, as they won't have the correct mindset on this game. As expected, the Raptors are still adjusting to the changes their roster had in their recent trade. Now that Jose Calderon is gone and Kyle Lowry is their primary PG, with Rudy Gay on the wing, the Raptors will be looking to push more the pace of their games. They scored 18 fast break points in their last game against Boston and this was their third highest mark of the season. Their problem against Boston was their offensive inconsistency, especially in the constant way that they attempt contested shots! Welcome home, Rudy Gay! The Raptors shot 5-21 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-18 3pts and this isn't a good recipe to win a ballgame and the Raptors went cold on their offense at the wrong time, something that just keeps happening with them this season. The biggest surprise from the Raptors on their last game was the fact that Coach Casey used a small lineup against Boston during the third quarter, with Andrea Bargnani, Rudy Gay, Alan Anderson, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry! The Raptors simply killed the Celtics with their small ball unit, something that Casey will need to think twice in doing it tonight against the Pacers, as Indiana's frontcourt has nothing to do with Boston's undersized frontcourt. Even with these changes, Toronto has been competitive on their games. They easily defeated the Clippers at home, they hung around with Miami until the third quarter, where both Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson got into foul trouble and on their last game against Boston, they choked on the last quarter. One of the most underrated factors about Toronto has been their excellent rebounding stats, as they grabbed 61.88%, 53.64%, 55.78% and 54.66% of the rebounds on their last four games!  Indiana's starting PG George Hill has been playing banged up lately and the Pacers as a team have been an average defensive team in pick and roll ball handler defense by being #18 in the league, while allowing 0.80 PPP. So, I expect Toronto to have a nice edge tonight on this position. With the Raptors rebounding the ball well and with the Pacers being on such a poor physical spot and with the wrong mindset for this game, I expect Toronto to be quite competitive tonight. The first two games between these two teams this season were decided by 2 points each and I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Raptors plus the points in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801 Toronto Raptors (+7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker