NBA - 525 San Antonio Spurs @ 526 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 204 points
San Antonio is 4-0 right now and they are playing great. Their offense looks sharper than never and we can even start comparing their basketball to the one they showed during their huge run last season, even though Manu Ginobili isn't playing a lot early on the season due to constant back pain. San Antonio's offensive machine can be proved in different ways. First of all, in three games against three playoff contenders (Oklahoma City, Utah and Indiana), the Spurs had 27, 29 and 25 assists! Also even though San Antonio scored "just" 101 points, note that they had an offensive rate of 117.26, but the slow paced game covered a bit San Antonio's terrific efficiency. Besides their great offensive system, the main reason for San Antonio's offense, even with a limited Manu Ginobili, is Tim Duncan who is playing like it's 2002 and not 2012!
Until now, the Spurs has been alternating good defense games with poor ones, but that has more to do with their opponents than the Spurs being an elite defensive team. On their last game against Indiana, San Antonio was able to shutdown the Pacers offense, but that was exactly what I expected to happen, as I took both San Antonio and the Under in that game. The reason for that is the terrible offense the Pacers are showing on this early season, with no game plan, no identity and some poor shooting. The Pacers were supposed to have an edge down low, but San Antonio forced them to take shots from the perimeter and Indiana simply collapsed offensively.
However, San Antonio will have a much tougher offense tonight against the Clippers, who have a somewhat new offensive identity that will make some damage to the Spurs defense. We all know that the Clippers had no chance against San Antonio in the playoff series by having a poor offense on the first three games of the series. But also remember that both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were banged up, while the Clippers have their two main players healthy for this season and they have also an improved and offensive-minded bench, unlike last season. The Clippers are pushing up the pace and they are scoring in transition with 29, 21, 16 and 17 fast break points! This is a good idea for them considering the athleticism they have and this will be problematic for the Spurs defense.
The Clippers is coming from back to back losses at home, including a home loss against Cleveland on their last game. The Clippers protected well the area near the basket against the Cavs (13-28 FG at the rim + 13 blocks), however they struggled on team help defense and didn't have good rotations, so Cleveland pounded them with 14-29 3pts! Do you know who's the best team in the league in doing what Cleveland did to the Clippers? Yep, it's the San Antonio Spurs! The Clippers' main problem have been the turnovers, but as San Antonio doesn't pressure the ball handler, I expect the Clippers to have a fine game on this area tonight.
On a fast paced game, I expect both teams to have quite good offensive games tonight, with San Antonio pounding the Clippers from the perimeter and the team from LA pounding the Spurs down low, and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 525/526 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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