NBA - 503 Atlanta Hawks @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 201 points | LA Clippers by 3 points
Atlanta is 2-2 right now, but they are coming from three competitive games against good teams: Oklahoma City, Indiana and Miami. The fact that they were competitive even with a lot of changes on their roster is a sign of good coaching. The Hawks are coming from a home loss against Miami, where they managed to have a mini comeback during the 4th quarter, but when they tied the game, they immediately two free throws and an alley hoop layup that could have tied them in the score once again. Jeff Teague continues being very assertive in both passing and shooting with 7-8 FG, 11 assists and 2 turnovers. Atlanta has a good ball movement that allows them to create good looks on the outside, with both Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow taking advantage of that, while they are also being quite good on their pick and roll game with Al Horford and the guards.
The Hawks have deadly shooters and they are extremely effective on transition. They will have a Clippers defense that has been struggling exactly where the Hawks offense is performing well, as the Clippers are just #20 on transition defense, #20 on post ups and #18 in pick and roll ball handler. These are exactly the three areas where Atlanta has been impressive early on. The Clippers did a good job on defense over the last two games, but it was due to pure bad shooting from their opponents, with Portland shooting 8-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-20 3pts, while San Antonio shot 5-14 FG and 8-23 FG from these areas as well.
On the other side, the Clippers offense is playing very well. Del Negro's decision of pushing up the pace is working well, as the Clippers are not only #1 in the league in fast break points per game with 19.7 ppg, as they are also quite effective by being #6 in PPP (points per possession). Note that Atlanta adopted the same style this season and they are #2 in fast break points with 18.0 ppg and #4 in PPP! Just like the Clippers, Atlanta is a bad transition defensive team by allowing 1.26 PPP (#24)! That's one of the reasons why I like the over in here, as a lot of easy points will be scored today.
But the Clippers have been great on offense in other areas as well. Chris Paul is dominating on the pick and rolls, with the Clippers being #2 in the league in this area, while they are also hitting well from the outside by being in the top 10 in 10-15 feet, 16-23 feet and 3pts shooting! Both benches have depth and they are good offensively. Atlanta has some good offensive players in Devin Harris, Anthony Morrow and Louis Williams, while the Clippers have Eric Bledsoe and Jamal Crawford coming off the bench as well.
Atlanta is a very underrated team right now. Nobody talks about them, but the team has already shown that they can be competitive, as they won at Oklahoma City and they were tied in the last minute against Miami. I expect the Hawks to surprise the Clippers today, on a high scoring game, and therefore, I'll be taking both Atlanta and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Atlanta Hawks (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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