Projected Line: Memphis by 7 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This will be the first Triple Dime Play of the season because I'm really liking what I'm seeing from the Grizzlies this season. From all the games that I've already watched this season (and they are already a lot of games), there are two teams that are clearly the best two teams in the Western Conference right now: San Antonio and Memphis. The Grizzlies have immediately a huge edge over the rest of the league, as they are currently in a phenomenal physical shape! In fact, I have already mentioned that in my Double Dime Play that I had on the Grizzlies at Golden State last Friday, in a game where Memphis easily won the game. I said the following in the write up of that play:
"It's not a surprise that Memphis is so well advanced in their preparation, as immediately on their first preseason game, we saw the starters playing for more than 30 minutes (http://espn.go.com/nba/
Marc Gasol is playing like he is the best center in the league, while Zach Randolph seems to be back to his 2010/11 form by averaging an incredible 16.0 rebounds per game and 6.7 offensive rebounds per game! With these two players looking in such great form, Memphis has been completely pounding their opponents down low. Take a look at their rebounding percentage in their first three games of the season: 56.28%, 51.25% and 54.10%! On their last game they faced the Jazz, who has probably the best frontcourt unit (depth wise) in the league with four serviceable players.
The Grizzlies didn't start the game well, as in fact they started the game with very poor offensive efficiency. With 4:21 to go in the first quarter, Utah was leading the game by 19-7, with the Jazz shooting 8-14 FG and Memphis a ridiculous 2-18 FG! Memphis ended the first quarter with just 24% FG, but after halftime, they just began pounding the ball down low, with Marc Gasol finishing the game with 28 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists, while Zach Randolph had 16 points and 18 rebounds! With this, the Grizzlies scored 60 points in the paint, while shooting 20-33 FG at the rim and 8-18 FG from 3-9 feet!
Not only the starters have been in great form, as the Grizzlies bench has been also in excellent shape. Quincy Pondexter was a vital part of their comeback against Utah and if it wasn't for a poor night from Rudy Gay, who shot 3-17 FG and the Grizzlies would have completely blown out Utah.
After facing a tough team with a good frontcourt, Memphis will face the Bucks, who are a very favorable matchup to them, especially because Milwaukee won't be able to match the Grizzlies' frontcourt duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. I know the Bucks are 2-0 right now, but note that they faced Boston who are playing small ball now, with Kevin Garnett at the center position and Milwaukee has indeed dominated the glass in that game by grabbing 56.1% of the rebounds, while outrebounding the Celtics at the offensive glass by 11-6! However, on their game against the Cavaliers, the Bucks were owned by Anderson Varejao! The Brazilian player on his own managed to have 10-13 FG, 20 points and 17 rebounds! Milwaukee had just 3 offensive rebounds the whole game, but they managed to win the game via to an excellent night from their bench. However, that's a reason for concern and not for celebration! If I was coach Scott Skiles, I would be very worried to watch my starting lineup being completely outplayed by Cleveland, as the starters had the following team points +/- numbers: Ilyasova -7; Harris -21; Dalembert -10; Ellis -13; Jennings -14! The only reason why Milwaukee won that game was due to the fact their bench outplayed the Cavs' bench by 62-15!!!
Cleveland has a bad perimeter defense, but Memphis will offer a much tougher matchup to the Bucks on this area as well, as the Grizzlies have an outstanding ball pressure defense! I expect both Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings to struggle a bit on the offensive end and with that happening, Milwaukee's offense is in deep trouble! To make things worse, Beno Udrih, their top guard reserve, is out for this contest. Udrih played really well while coming off the bench in the first two games of the season, but his injury will force some adjustments from coach Scott Skiles:
"It means Doron (Lamb) may play more and Marquis (Daniels) may play more," Skiles said. "Memphis is a very good club and we're going to need to play well, anyway. But Brandon (Jennings) and Monta (Ellis) may play more minutes even. We'll see how it goes."
The most likely scenario is indeed both Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis being forced to play more minutes, something that will make them more tired throughout the game, something that is very concerning as they are jump shooters. I don't expect great things from Milwaukee this season and Memphis is one of the teams that will show why I think exactly that about the Bucks. Milwaukee lacks a good interior presence and if their combo guards get pressured, they will immediately struggle a lot to score.
Memphis is not only a better team than Milwaukee, as they are also at a more advanced level in terms of team chemistry when compared with most of the league. Therefore, it makes absolutely no sense that the Grizzlies are the underdog on this contest and so, I'll be taking them in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 515 Memphis Grizzlies (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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